Collaborative Research: Tradeoffs between phenology and geography constraints in response to climate change across species life cycles

研究人员正在使用统计和生物物理建模技术来检查鱼卵、幼虫和幼鱼的时间（物候）和分布（地理）的特征和驱动因素。他们的重点是加利福尼亚洋流和东北太平洋的阿拉斯加湾西部地区。物候和地理变化是海洋生物对全球气候变化的预期反应，对食物网相互作用、物种丰富度和生产力以及局部灭绝产生影响。反过来，这些应对措施将对海洋保护、资源管理以及依赖海洋资源维持生计的沿海社区的经济产生重要影响。数据分析是与国家海洋和大气管理局的渔业科学家合作进行的，其结果将引起资源管理人员的兴趣。其中一名研究人员是一名早期职业女性科学家，该研究为REU学生、其他本科生、研究生和一名博士后科学家提供培训。教育拓展包括开发在线课堂和实验室模块。该项目的总体目标是研究东北太平洋鱼类早期生活史阶段（ELS）的物候和地理驱动因素和特征。大多数关于气候变化如何影响海洋生物的研究都集中在成年生活史阶段，尽管现有文献表明，早期生活史阶段可能更容易受到气候压力的影响。在ELS期间，由于强大的生态、生理、物理和进化限制，海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物在空间和时间上的移动能力可能受到限制。对于这些物种来说，它们通过分布和物候的变化来适应全球气候变化的能力取决于它们生命周期早期发生的事件。同样，气候变化对生物分布和物候的影响主要是分开研究的，没有考虑这两种对海洋条件变化的响应之间的相互作用。研究人员正在对自20世纪50年代中期以来收集的ELS进行建模分析，以验证以下零假设：1)与生命史策略无关，鱼类ELS将经历与海洋气候相似的时空变异性；2)物种分布的前沿变化更大，产卵季节开始时物候变化最大；3)分布变化大的物种物候变化较小，反之亦然；4)包含生活史信息的鱼类分布历史和未来预测比不包含生活史信息的预测更有技巧。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The investigators are using statistical and biophysical modeling techniques to examine the characteristics and drivers of timing (phenology) and distribution (geography) of fish eggs, larvae, and juveniles. They are focusing on the California Current and western Gulf of Alaska regions of the Northeast Pacific. Changes in phenology and geography are anticipated responses of marine organisms to global change in climate, with consequences for food web interactions, species abundance and productivity, and local extinctions. These responses, in turn, will have important implications for marine conservation, resource management, and the economies of coastal communities that depend on marine resources for sustenance and livelihoods. Data analysis is in collaboration with fisheries scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and results will be of interest to resource managers. One of the investigators is an early-career female scientist, and the study provides training for REU students, other undergraduates, graduate students, and a postdoctoral scientist. Educational outreach includes development of online classroom and lab modules. The overarching objective of this project is to examine the drivers and characteristics of phenology and geography of fish early life history stages (ELS) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Most research on how climate change impacts marine organisms has focused on adult life history stages, even though existing literature indicates that early life history stages may be more vulnerable to climate stressors. During ELS, marine fish and invertebrates can be limited in their ability to move in space and time due to strong ecological, physiological, physical, and evolutionary constraints. For these species, their ability to adapt to global change in climate through shifts in distribution and phenology depends on the events that occur during the early portion of their life cycle. Similarly, climate change impacts on organismal distribution and phenology have principally been studied separately, without any consideration of interactions between these two types of responses to changing oceanic conditions. The investigators are conducting modeling analyses based on ELS collected since the mid-1950s to test the null hypotheses that: 1) fish ELS will experience similar spatio-temporal variability in relation to ocean climate regardless of the life history strategy; 2) changes will be greater at the leading edge of a species' distribution and that the start of the spawning season will exhibit the greatest change in phenology; 3) species with large distribution changes will have smaller changes in phenology, and vice versa; and 4) historical and future projections of fish distribution that include life history information will be more skillful than those that do not include life history.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.