Collaborative Research: Tradeoffs between phenology and geography constraints in response to climate change across species life cycles

合作研究：物种生命周期中应对气候变化的物候和地理限制之间的权衡

• 批准号: 2049625
• 负责人: Jerome Fiechter
• 金额: $ 15.45万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Cruz
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2049625&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Tradeoffs; between; phenology

The investigators are using statistical and biophysical modeling techniques to examine the characteristics and drivers of timing (phenology) and distribution (geography) of fish eggs, larvae, and juveniles. They are focusing on the California Current and western Gulf of Alaska regions of the Northeast Pacific. Changes in phenology and geography are anticipated responses of marine organisms to global change in climate, with consequences for food web interactions, species abundance and productivity, and local extinctions. These responses, in turn, will have important implications for marine conservation, resource management, and the economies of coastal communities that depend on marine resources for sustenance and livelihoods. Data analysis is in collaboration with fisheries scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and results will be of interest to resource managers. One of the investigators is an early-career female scientist, and the study provides training for REU students, other undergraduates, graduate students, and a postdoctoral scientist. Educational outreach includes development of online classroom and lab modules. The overarching objective of this project is to examine the drivers and characteristics of phenology and geography of fish early life history stages (ELS) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Most research on how climate change impacts marine organisms has focused on adult life history stages, even though existing literature indicates that early life history stages may be more vulnerable to climate stressors. During ELS, marine fish and invertebrates can be limited in their ability to move in space and time due to strong ecological, physiological, physical, and evolutionary constraints. For these species, their ability to adapt to global change in climate through shifts in distribution and phenology depends on the events that occur during the early portion of their life cycle. Similarly, climate change impacts on organismal distribution and phenology have principally been studied separately, without any consideration of interactions between these two types of responses to changing oceanic conditions. The investigators are conducting modeling analyses based on ELS collected since the mid-1950s to test the null hypotheses that: 1) fish ELS will experience similar spatio-temporal variability in relation to ocean climate regardless of the life history strategy; 2) changes will be greater at the leading edge of a species' distribution and that the start of the spawning season will exhibit the greatest change in phenology; 3) species with large distribution changes will have smaller changes in phenology, and vice versa; and 4) historical and future projections of fish distribution that include life history information will be more skillful than those that do not include life history.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

研究人员正在使用统计和生物物理建模技术来检查鱼卵，幼虫和少年的时机（物候）和分布（地理）的特征和驱动因素。他们着重于东北太平洋地区阿拉斯加地区的加利福尼亚州和西部海湾。物候和地理的变化预期是海洋生物对全球气候变化的反应，这对食物网络相互作用，物种丰度和生产力以及局部灭绝的影响。反过来，这些反应将对依赖海洋资源的寄托和生计的沿海社区经济和沿海社区的经济具有重要意义。数据分析与国家海洋和大气管理局的渔业科学家合作，资源经理将感兴趣的结果。其中一位研究人员是一位早期的女性科学家，该研究为REU学生，其他本科生，研究生和博士后科学家提供了培训。教育外展活动包括开发在线教室和实验室模块。该项目的总体目的是检查东北太平洋的鱼类物候和地理的驱动力和特征。关于气候变化如何影响海洋生物的大多数研究都集中在成人生活史阶段，尽管现有文献表明早期生活历史阶段可能更容易受到气候压力源的影响。在ELS期间，由于强大的生态，生理，物理和进化的约束，海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物的时空运动能力可能受到限制。对于这些物种而言，它们通过分布和物候的变化来适应气候变化的能力取决于其生命周期早期发生的事件。同样，对气候变化对有机体分布和物候的影响主要研究了，而没有考虑到这两种反应对变化的海洋条件之间的相互作用。研究人员正在基于自1950年代中期以来收集的EL进行建模分析，以测试以下假设：1）鱼类EL将在与海洋气候相关的相似时空变异性上，而不管人生历史策略如何； 2）在物种分布的前沿变化会更大，而产卵季节的开始将表现出最大的物候变化； 3）分布变化较大的物种将在物候学上发生较小的变化，反之亦然； 4）鱼类分布的历史和未来预测，包括生活史信息的信息将比不包括生活历史的人更熟练。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并且被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估的评估来支持的。