Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Sustainability in Chesapeake Bay shorescapes: climate change, management decisions, and ecological functions

沿海 SEES 合作研究：切萨皮克湾海岸景观的可持续性：气候变化、管理决策和生态功能

• 批准号: 1600131
• 负责人: Donna Marie Bilkovic
• 金额: $ 94.16万
• 依托单位: College of William & Mary Virginia Institute of Marine Science
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-09-15 至 2021-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1600131&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Coastal; SEES; Collaborative; Research; Sustainability

This research examines the potential for achieving sustainability in coastal systems where natural resources are impacted by both climate change and human responses to climate change. Chesapeake Bay shorescapes (a shoreline zone which includes riparian, intertidal, and near-shore shallow water areas) are used as a test bed because sea level rise creates risks for shoreline property owners and shoreline marshes. Property owner perception and response to the risk varies and their choice of a shoreline protection approach (armoring, living shoreline, do nothing) has consequences for the capacity of shoreline marshes to continue to provide ecosystem services. Impacts on marsh services that include supporting fisheries and improving water quality affect the larger estuarine system, with consequences for the many users of that system. This leads to regulation by government officials, who have their own perception of all these issues. Modeling the decision-making process of shoreline property owners, the ecological consequences of shoreline management decisions, and the perceptions of officials developing or implementing natural resource policies will discover opportunities and options for managing the combined human and natural system to desired outcomes.The goal of the project is to discover the elements of the shorescape social-ecological system that have the greatest influence on attainment of sustainable outcomes. The research describes the trajectory of Chesapeake Bay shorescapes in terms of changes in amount, distribution, and character of shoreline types. The primary drivers of these changes are rising sea levels and actions of shoreline property owners to combat erosion. An analysis of existing information on shoreline conditions, property owner characteristics and property management decisions is used to model future shoreline management choices. A series of field investigations comparatively quantify multiple ecosystem functions (habitat provision, primary production, nutrient and carbon storage) of living shorelines and natural marshes along a continuum of estuarine shorescape settings and project future shifts in function under varying management scenarios. This information is compiled in a marsh function model that can use input from the shoreline management model. Future outcomes then are forecast under scenarios with alternative sea level rise and management conditions. Surveys of government officials responsible for policy development and implementation document the operative feedbacks from the ecological consequences of property owner decisions. Synthesis of this information identifies the characteristics of shorescape socio-ecological systems that enhance or detract from their ability to achieve sustainable outcomes. Formal guidance for coastal managers and policy makers will be developed using the results of this integrative approach to sustainability in Chesapeake Bay shorescapes.

本研究探讨了在自然资源受到气候变化和人类对气候变化的反应影响的沿海系统中实现可持续性的潜力。切萨皮克湾海岸景观（包括河岸、潮间带和近岸浅水区的海岸线区域）被用作试验平台，因为海平面上升会给海岸线所有者和海岸线沼泽带来风险。财产所有者对风险的认知和反应各不相同，他们选择的岸线保护方法（装甲、活岸线、什么都不做）对岸线沼泽继续提供生态系统服务的能力产生影响。对沼泽服务的影响，包括支持渔业和改善水质，影响到更大的河口系统，对该系统的许多用户产生影响。这导致了政府官员的监管，他们对所有这些问题都有自己的看法。对海岸线财产所有者的决策过程、海岸线管理决策的生态后果以及官员制定或实施自然资源政策的看法进行建模，将发现管理人类和自然系统以达到预期结果的机会和选择。该项目的目标是发现对实现可持续成果影响最大的海岸景观社会生态系统要素。该研究从海岸线类型的数量、分布和特征的变化方面描述了切萨皮克湾海岸景观的发展轨迹。这些变化的主要驱动因素是海平面上升和海岸线所有者对抗侵蚀的行动。对现有的岸线条件、物业所有者特征和物业管理决策信息进行分析，用于模拟未来的岸线管理选择。通过一系列实地调查，比较量化了河口岸线和天然沼泽的多种生态系统功能（栖息地提供、初级生产、营养和碳储存），并预测了不同管理方案下功能的未来变化。这些信息汇编在一个沼泽功能模型中，该模型可以使用海岸线管理模型的输入。然后在海平面上升和管理条件不同的情况下预测未来的结果。对负责政策制定和实施的政府官员的调查记录了财产所有者决定的生态后果的操作反馈。这些信息的综合确定了海岸景观社会生态系统的特征，这些特征增强或削弱了它们实现可持续成果的能力。将利用这种对切萨皮克湾沿岸景观的可持续性综合办法的结果，为沿海管理人员和决策者制定正式指导。