Collaborative Research: The Great Depression, the New Deal, and the Origins of Modern State Government Fiscal Policies

本世纪头十年的大衰退再次引发了关于国家和州政府应对经济危机和长期趋势的适当反应的辩论。这些争论和政府政策的现代渊源可以追溯到大萧条和新政。国家政府和大多数州政府面临持续的和未来的预算问题，这些问题基于目前资金不足的养老金和医疗保健承诺。20世纪30年代是与当前形势最相关的历史例子，30年代初各级税收下降，对州政府的需求扩大，联邦政府向各州提供了大量新资金，并制定了一系列政策。各州本身开始了一场财政革命，扩大了它们创造收入的能力，国家和州政府之间的互动发生了变化，扩大了国家和州政府在经济中的长期经济责任。因此，了解这些政策是如何在20世纪30年代确立的，可以为现代政策问题提供大量的见解。人口普查局在1932年至1936年期间停止了对州财政统计数据的汇编，在从1915年到现在的一系列统计数据中留下了一个巨大的漏洞。州财政数据的这种差距恰好发生在关键年份，当时现代州政府政策正在经历一场财政革命，以应对大萧条和新政。我们的目标是通过直接访问各州财务主管和审计师的报告来收集1930至1940年的财务数据，以填补这一空白。当该项目完成后，我们将开发一个涵盖1915年至1940年期间48个毗邻州的面板数据集，其中包含州总收入和支出的信息，以及几个收入和支出类别的信息。这个小组将与1919年至1940年的小组数据集相匹配，其中包含关于州人均收入、农业活动、制造业活动、出生、死亡、银行活动、多个类别的联邦支出、多个类别的联邦税收、公路里程、各种类别的建设、天气、州立法机构和州长的政治组成以及国会、总统和州长选举结果的信息。通过我们将使用这些数据回答的问题，可以看出这项提案的更广泛影响。我们计划解决的一些问题是：增加的国家政府拨款和贷款是否鼓励了额外的州支出和收入，或者各州的回应是允许国家支出排挤州支出并减少税收？在20世纪20年代和30年代，各州在多大程度上引入了新的税种和新的支出形式，以及导致它们选择具体形式的因素是什么？在控制国家支出后，国家赤字和盈余对国家经济活动的影响是什么？

The Great Recession of the 2000s has led to renewed debates about the appropriate responses of the national and state governments to economic crises and to long run trends. The debates and the government policies have their modern origins in the Great Depression and New Deal. The national and most state governments face continuing and future budgetary problems based on pension and health care promises that are currently underfunded. The 1930s offer the most relevant historical example to the current situation, as tax revenues at all levels dropped in the early 1930s, demands on state governments expanded, and the federal government provided a large amount of new funding to the states and established a host of policies. The states themselves began a fiscal revolution that expanded their capacity to generate revenue and the interactions between the national and state governments changed in ways that expanded the long run economic responsibilities of national and state governments in the economy. Thus, understanding how these policies were established in the 1930s can provide numerous insights into the modern policy issues. The Census Bureau stopped compiling state financial statistics during the years 1932 through 1936, leaving a gaping hole in a series that runs from 1915 to the present. This gap in the state fiscal data occurs precisely during the key years when modern state government policies were going through a fiscal revolution in response to the Depression and the New Deal. Our goal is to fill the gap by going directly to the reports of Treasurers and Auditors in each state to collect the financial data from 1930 through 1940. When the project is completed, we will have developed a panel data set that covers the period from 1915 through 1940 for the 48 contiguous states with information on total state revenues and expenditures, as well as with information on several revenue and expenditure categories. This panel will be matched up with a panel data set from 1919 through 1940 that contains information on state income per capita, farm activity, manufacturing activity, births, deaths, banking activity, federal spending in multiple categories, federal tax revenue in multiple categories, highway mileage built, construction in a variety of categories, weather, the political makeup of state legislatures and the governorship, and election results for congressional, presidential and gubernatorial elections.The broader impact of this proposal can be seen through the questions we will answer using this data. Some of the questions we plan to address are: Did the increased national government grants and loans encourage additional state spending and revenue or did the states respond by allowing the national spending to crowd out state spending and reduce tax collections? To what extent did the states introduce new types of taxes and new forms of expenditures in the 1920s and 1930s and what were the factors that led them to choose the specific forms? What was the impact of state deficits and surpluses on state economic activity after controlling for national spending?