The Transmission from Households to the Real Economy: Evidence from Mortgage and Consumer Credit Markets

该奖项资助了一项研究，该研究将使用一个创新的数据源来研究抵押贷款和消费信贷市场如何将经济冲击传导到更广泛的经济中。他们想回答三个研究问题。首先，他们将衡量抵押贷款利率的意外变化(冲击)在多大程度上导致美国整体经济发生变化。他们计划使用一家拥有数百万美国抵押贷款数据的商业提供商的数据来实现这一点。其次，他们希望研究抵押贷款再融资和贷款人之间的竞争是如何影响到这一局面的。房主可以通过再融资来利用较低的利率；这是否意味着提高利率的冲击与提高利率的冲击具有不同的影响？第三，他们将衡量利率冲击影响家庭资产负债表的方式对不平等的影响。第三个项目将衡量不太富裕的家庭是否会受到高抵押贷款利率的更大损害；如果答案是肯定的，那么利率冲击可能会加剧现有的不平等。研究生将通过协助这个项目来学习分析非常大的数据集的先进技术。对于为抵押贷款和其他类型的消费信贷市场制定规则的监管机构来说，这一结果将是有价值的，因为它们将帮助这些政策制定者理解他们的决定如何影响整体经济。这个项目对其他经济政策制定者也很重要，他们需要了解房地产市场如何影响美国整体经济。最近的经济危机突显了借款人资产负债表以及抵押贷款和消费信贷市场对经济冲击传播的重要性。PIs通过使用全面的面板数据集和设计分离特定影响的经验策略来开发新的经验证据。他们计划研究(I)通过家庭资产负债表将抵押贷款利率的冲击传导到实体经济；(Ii)抵押贷款再融资和中介竞争如何有助于确定这些冲击对家庭消费的传导强度；以及(Iii)这些冲击对家庭资产负债表的再分配影响。该项目对家庭在经济危机期间如何通过宽松的货币政策应对抵押贷款利率的长期下调进行了实证评估。关注抵押贷款是衡量家庭如何应对经济刺激的绝佳方法：抵押贷款偿债成本变化的规模和持续性使每月的还款额减少，在贷款期限内减少数千美元。该团队还计划通过利用利率下降风险敞口的地区差异，为利率冲击的更广泛后果提供新的证据。他们还评估了市场结构通过响应政府政策影响再融资活动，从而影响家庭消费活动的作用。最后，他们的项目还将评估利率冲击和宽松货币政策对经济的再分配、经济不平等和整体消费反应的影响。

This award funds research that will use an innovative data source to examine how mortgage and consumer credit markets work to transmit economic shocks to the broader economy. They want to answer three research questions. First, they will measure the extent to which unanticipated changes (shocks) to mortgage interest rates cause changes in the US economy as a whole. They plan to do this using data from a commercial provider that has data on millions of US mortgages. Second, they want to examine how mortgage refinancing and competition between lenders enter into the picture. A homeowner can refinance to take advantage of lower interest rates; does this mean that shocks that increase rates have a different effect than shocks that raise rates? Third, they will measure how inequality is affected by the ways in which interest rate shocks affect household balance sheets. This third project will measure whether or not less wealthy households are more damaged by high mortgage interest rates; if the answer is yes, then interest rate shocks can exacerbate existing inequality. Graduate students will learn advanced techniques for the analysis of very large data sets by assisting in this project. The results will be valuable for regulators who create rules for markets for mortgages and other kinds of consumer credit, because they will help these policymakers understand how their decisions affect the broader economy. The project is also important for other economic policymakers who need to understand how housing markets affect the broader U.S. economy.The recent economic crisis has highlighted the importance of borrower balance sheets and mortgage and consumer credit markets for the propagation of economic shocks. The PIs develop new empirical evidence by using a comprehensive panel data set and by devising empirical strategies to isolate specific effects. They plan to study (i) transmission of shocks to mortgage interest rates onto the real economy through household balance sheets; (ii) how mortgage refinancing and intermediary competition help to determine the intensity of transmission of these shocks to household consumption and (iii) the redistributional consequences to household balance sheets of these shocks. The project provides an empirical assessment of how households responded to the prolonged reduction in mortgage interest rates through accommodative monetary policy during the economic crisis. Focusing on mortgages is an excellent way of measuring how households respond to an economic stimulus: the size and persistence of the change in the cost of servicing mortgage debt reduces payments each month and by thousands of dollars over the term of the loan. The team also plans to provide new evidence on the broader consequences of interest rates shocks by by exploiting regional variation in exposure to lower interest rates. They also assess the role of market structure in impacting consumption activity of households by influencing refinancing activity in response to government policies. Finally, their projects will also assess the impact of interest rate shocks and accommodative monetary policy on the redistribution, economic inequality, and overall consumption response of the economy.