The Transmission from Households to the Real Economy: Evidence from Mortgage and Consumer Credit Markets

从家庭到实体经济的传导：来自抵押贷款和消费信贷市场的证据

• 批准号: 1628895
• 负责人: Amit Seru
• 金额: $ 51.45万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-08-15 至 2022-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1628895&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Transmission; Households; Real; Economy; Evidence

This award funds research that will use an innovative data source to examine how mortgage and consumer credit markets work to transmit economic shocks to the broader economy. They want to answer three research questions. First, they will measure the extent to which unanticipated changes (shocks) to mortgage interest rates cause changes in the US economy as a whole. They plan to do this using data from a commercial provider that has data on millions of US mortgages. Second, they want to examine how mortgage refinancing and competition between lenders enter into the picture. A homeowner can refinance to take advantage of lower interest rates; does this mean that shocks that increase rates have a different effect than shocks that raise rates? Third, they will measure how inequality is affected by the ways in which interest rate shocks affect household balance sheets. This third project will measure whether or not less wealthy households are more damaged by high mortgage interest rates; if the answer is yes, then interest rate shocks can exacerbate existing inequality. Graduate students will learn advanced techniques for the analysis of very large data sets by assisting in this project. The results will be valuable for regulators who create rules for markets for mortgages and other kinds of consumer credit, because they will help these policymakers understand how their decisions affect the broader economy. The project is also important for other economic policymakers who need to understand how housing markets affect the broader U.S. economy.The recent economic crisis has highlighted the importance of borrower balance sheets and mortgage and consumer credit markets for the propagation of economic shocks. The PIs develop new empirical evidence by using a comprehensive panel data set and by devising empirical strategies to isolate specific effects. They plan to study (i) transmission of shocks to mortgage interest rates onto the real economy through household balance sheets; (ii) how mortgage refinancing and intermediary competition help to determine the intensity of transmission of these shocks to household consumption and (iii) the redistributional consequences to household balance sheets of these shocks. The project provides an empirical assessment of how households responded to the prolonged reduction in mortgage interest rates through accommodative monetary policy during the economic crisis. Focusing on mortgages is an excellent way of measuring how households respond to an economic stimulus: the size and persistence of the change in the cost of servicing mortgage debt reduces payments each month and by thousands of dollars over the term of the loan. The team also plans to provide new evidence on the broader consequences of interest rates shocks by by exploiting regional variation in exposure to lower interest rates. They also assess the role of market structure in impacting consumption activity of households by influencing refinancing activity in response to government policies. Finally, their projects will also assess the impact of interest rate shocks and accommodative monetary policy on the redistribution, economic inequality, and overall consumption response of the economy.

该奖项资助的研究将使用创新的数据源，以研究抵押贷款和消费信贷市场如何将经济冲击传递到更广泛的经济。他们想回答三个研究问题。首先，他们将衡量抵押贷款利率的意外变化（冲击）在多大程度上导致美国整体经济的变化。他们计划使用来自一家商业提供商的数据来实现这一目标，该提供商拥有数百万美国抵押贷款的数据。其次，他们想研究抵押贷款再融资和贷款人之间的竞争如何进入画面。房主可以再融资以利用较低的利率;这是否意味着提高利率的冲击与提高利率的冲击有不同的影响？第三，他们将衡量利率冲击如何影响家庭资产负债表，从而影响不平等。第三个项目将衡量不太富裕的家庭是否会受到高抵押贷款利率的更大损害;如果答案是肯定的，那么利率冲击会加剧现有的不平等。研究生将通过协助这个项目学习分析非常大的数据集的先进技术。这些结果对于为抵押贷款和其他类型的消费信贷市场制定规则的监管机构来说将是有价值的，因为它们将帮助这些政策制定者了解他们的决策如何影响更广泛的经济。该项目对其他需要了解房地产市场如何影响更广泛的美国经济的经济决策者也很重要。最近的经济危机突出了借款人资产负债表以及抵押贷款和消费信贷市场对经济冲击传播的重要性。PI通过使用全面的面板数据集和设计实证策略来隔离特定的影响，从而开发新的实证证据。他们计划研究（一）抵押贷款利率冲击通过家庭资产负债表向真实的经济的传导;（二）抵押贷款再融资和中介竞争如何帮助确定这些冲击向家庭消费传导的强度;（三）这些冲击对家庭资产负债表的再分配后果。该项目提供了一个实证评估，家庭如何应对长期降低抵押贷款利率，在经济危机期间，通过货币政策的干预。关注抵押贷款是衡量家庭如何应对经济刺激的一个很好的方法：偿还抵押贷款债务成本变化的规模和持续性使每月的还款减少，并在贷款期限内减少数千美元。该小组还计划通过利用低利率风险的区域差异，提供有关利率冲击更广泛后果的新证据。他们还评估了市场结构在影响家庭消费活动方面的作用，通过影响政府政策的再融资活动。最后，他们的项目还将评估利率冲击和刺激性货币政策对再分配、经济不平等和经济整体消费反应的影响。