Stability of atmospheric circulation patterns and its relation to extreme events

大气环流格局的稳定性及其与极端事件的关系

• 批准号: 225833281
• 负责人: Dr. Dim Coumou
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Forschungsbereich Erdsystemanalyse
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2011-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/225833281?language=en
• 关键词: Stability; atmospheric; circulation; patterns; its

We propose to study the sensitivity of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on internal atmosphere dynamical forcings and forcings arising from changes in surface boundary conditions. Methods will include rigorous data analysis and a hierarchy of modeling approaches: From conceptual, to intermediate complexity, to atmospheric general circulation, and finally fully-coupled earth system models. The focus of the proposed research will be towards the Hadley circulation and anomalous mid-latitudinal circulation patterns observed in the Northern Hemisphere during several recent boreal summers. The latter has been linked to the occurrence of atmospheric blocking and associated hemispheric-scale extreme weather events. Shifts in large-scale circulation patterns have the ability to cause abrupt climate change over large, continentalscale regions. Possible changes in the location of the major dry regions and in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather would have severe humanitarian and economic impacts. Large-scale atmospheric circulation plays a key role in these phenomena but uncertainties in its exact role are large. The proposed research will attempt to reduce these uncertainties using multiple modeling approaches and data analysis techniques.

我们建议研究大尺度大气环流对内部大气动力强迫和地面边界条件变化引起的强迫的敏感性。方法将包括严格的数据分析和建模方法的层次结构：从概念，到中等复杂性，到大气环流，最后是完全耦合的地球系统模型。拟议研究的重点将是最近几个北方夏季在北方半球观察到的哈德利环流和异常中纬度环流模式。后者与大气阻塞和相关的半球级极端天气事件的发生有关。大尺度环流模式的变化有能力在大陆尺度的大区域造成气候突变。主要干旱地区的位置以及极端天气的频率和（或）强度可能发生的变化将产生严重的人道主义和经济影响。大规模大气环流在这些现象中起着关键作用，但其确切作用的不确定性很大。拟议的研究将尝试使用多种建模方法和数据分析技术来减少这些不确定性。

项目成果

Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1412797111
• 发表时间: 2014-08-26
• 期刊: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• 影响因子: 11.1
• 作者: Coumou, Dim;Petoukhov, Vladimir;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
• 通讯作者: Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002
• 发表时间: 2014-08-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Lehmann, Jascha;Coumou, Dim;Levermann, Anders
• 通讯作者: Levermann, Anders

The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

• DOI: 10.1126/science.1261768
• 发表时间: 2015-04-17
• 期刊: SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 56.9
• 作者: Coumou, Dim;Lehmann, Jascha;Beckmann, Johanna
• 通讯作者: Beckmann, Johanna