Collaborative Research: P2C2--Paleowind Synthesis of Models and Data to Constrain the Response of Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation to External Forcing

本计画旨在评估数值模式模拟北方近地面风的技巧。近地面风是大尺度大气特征的地面表现，例如由纵向（经向）和纬度（纬向）温度梯度变化驱动的驻波。未来，近地表风预计将随着温室气体浓度上升导致的温度和大气环流变化而变化。然而，对未来近地面风的预测表明，模型之间存在很大的不确定性。研究人员建议通过过去的气候数据模型合成来评估这种不确定性，以评估模型对观测数据之外的气候驱动因素的响应的保真度。通过调查末次盛冰期（LGM）时期，数据合成和数据模式比较可以潜在地增强对北方风速和定常波变化驱动因素的理解。此外，它可能有助于检测可能扩展到未来气候驱动因素的模型偏差。该项目潜在的更广泛影响包括风代理记录的新应用，以促进对过去大气环流的理解，并改善对风变率的未来预测。该项目将生成北方半球的古风数据综合，供科学界使用，并向公众开放。通过这项研究获得的风向和阵风方面的知识可能与未来的风能资源有关。拟议的研究将产生一个新的综合北方，外热带古风向的末次冰期风成气候档案。从黄土和沙丘推断的古风向按时间顺序限制到末次盛冰期，将进行分类比较，近地表风向从末次盛冰期模拟的大气环流模型（GCM）参加第三和第四次古气候模拟相互比较项目和末次盛冰期的瞬态气候演变和同位素启用瞬态气候演变（跟踪-21 k和iTrace）实验。这种比较将使研究人员能够根据数据与模型一致性的大小来评估排名靠前和排名靠后的模型中的一般大气环流指标。与已知的驻波温度控制进行进一步比较，例如，赤道到极点的温度梯度和海洋-陆地对比将在考虑到数据-模型一致性和驻波特性的情况下进行审查，以评估潜在的模型偏差。模拟从单一的强迫实验，实验使用不同的冰盖模型，和瞬态冰消模拟将揭示个人的强迫因素和冰盖地形设置LGM近地面风向和驻波特性的作用。该项目将支持两名女研究人员的职业生涯和一名研究生的科学培训。此外，研究人员将参与外展活动，重点是为参加尚潘当地STEAM（科学，技术，工程，艺术和数学）工作室课后计划的小学生开发和实施新的教育模块。在这个关于天气和气候的新模块中，重点是风，20名五年级学生将获得手持Kestrel 1000风力仪器，以测量一天中不同时间和不同地点的风。学生们将与研究人员讨论天气，特别是风速和风向如何使用他们自己的测量每天变化。本单元的高潮将是到伊利诺伊州埃尔斯沃思市当地的Twin格罗夫斯风力发电场进行实地考察，以进行教育指导。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to evaluate numerical model skill in simulating near-surface winds in the Northern hemisphere. Near-surface winds are a surface manifestation of large-scale atmospheric features such as stationary waves which are driven by changes in longitudinal (Meridional) and latitudinal (zonal) temperature gradients. In the future, near-surface winds are expected to change in response to changes in temperature and atmospheric circulation as driven by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. However, projections of future near surface winds show a large uncertainty between the models. The researchers propose to evaluate this uncertainty via past climate data-model synthesis to assess the fidelity of model response to climate drivers outside the observational data. By investigating the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period, the data synthesis and data-model comparison can potentially enhance the understanding of the factors driving changes in Northern hemisphere wind speeds and stationary waves. Further, it can potentially aid to detect model biases that may extend to future climate drivers. The potential Broader Impacts of this project include a novel application of wind proxy records to advance the understanding of past atmospheric circulation and improve future projections of wind variability. This project will generate a paleowind data synthesis in the Northern Hemisphere that will be available for the scientific community and will be publicly accessible. The gained knowledge through this research in terms of wind direction and gustiness can be potentially relevant to future wind energy resources.The proposed research will produce a new synthesis of Northern Hemisphere, extratropical paleowind direction for the LGM from aeolian climate archives. Inferred paleowind direction from loess and dunes chronologically constrained to the LGM will be categorically compared to near-surface wind directions from the LGM simulations of the general circulation models (GCMs) participating the third and fourth Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Projects and the LGM periods of the Transient Climate Evolution and isotope-enabled Transient Climate Evolution (Trace-21k and iTrace) experiments. This comparison will allow the researchers to evaluate metrics for general atmospheric circulation in the top and bottom-ranking models based on the magnitude of data-model agreement. A further comparison with known temperature controls on stationary waves, e.g., the equator to pole temperature gradient and the ocean-land contrast, will be examined considering data-model agreement and stationary wave properties to assess potential model biases. Simulations from single forcing experiments, experiments using different ice sheet models, and the transient deglacial simulation will reveal the role of individual forcing factors and ice sheet orography in setting LGM near-surface wind direction and stationary wave properties. The project will support the careers of two female researchers and the scientific training of one graduate student. Additionally, the researchers will engage in outreach activities that will focus on developing and implementing a new education module for elementary students attending the local STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Math) Studio afterschool program in Champaign, IL. In this new module on weather and climate, with an emphasis on wind, the 20-member 5th grade student class will be given handheld Kestrel 1000 wind instruments to measure wind at different times of day and in different locations during a 6-week module period. The students will discuss with the researchers how weather and particularly, wind speed and direction changes from day to day using their own measurements. The capstone of this module will be a field trip to the local Twin Groves Wind Farm, Ellsworth, IL (west of Champaign, IL) for an educational guided tour.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.