CRISP Type 2/Collaborative Research: Scalable Decision Model to Achieve Local and Regional Resilience of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Systems and Communities

CRISP 类型 2/协作研究：可扩展的决策模型，以实现相互依赖的关键基础设施系统和社区的本地和区域弹性

• 批准号: 1638224
• 负责人: Jamie Kruse
• 金额: $ 13.3万
• 依托单位: East Carolina University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1638224&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CRISP; Type; Collaborative; Research; Scalable

The US economy and social wellbeing depend on interdependent critical infrastructure systems (ICISs) such as transportation, energy, water, and food systems. These ICISs shape the countrys ability to meet community needs often successful, but not for all, and are susceptible to disruptions due to extreme natural events. This interplay between normal operation, chronic issues, and disaster-induced challenges is clearly evident when considering food security issues. Food access and affordability are persistent problems for more than 14 percent of Americans in normal times and are greatly exacerbated following disasters. Frameworks for understanding ICIS interdependencies, their interface with social and economic networks in response to natural hazards, and their roles in disaster recovery for vulnerable populations and food security are nascent. The food security of a community is a function of the pre-event vulnerabilities and the resilience of its food distribution network including the vulnerabilities of its infrastructural systems in isolation and their interdependencies. Furthermore, the demands posed by different hazards, the capacity of each physical network and system to respond to these demands, and the interactions between physical and social systems are highly uncertain. Accordingly, risk-informed approaches that can guide decision methods are crucial to characterize demand and impact on a community, to predict community response, and for designing community infrastructure systems that are resilient. Well-integrated decision methods that account for and integrate the performance of different ICISs in response to disasters have broad impacts. First, such methodologies will better frame questions on disaster mitigation and recovery, and will facilitate disaster planning activities and training for various disaster scenarios. Second, they will encourage policies that address chronic and acute food-security issues, balancing the mitigation of vulnerability with the promotion of resiliency. Finally, they will foster a shared language among social, behavioral, and economic (SBE) scientists, computational scientists, and engineers on the causes and characterization of hazards and risks and mitigation solutions. This project will engage a diverse set of students, including women and minorities, and in student-centered learning. It will integrate research and education throughout the project, and effectively disseminate the results. The methodologies developed will be integrated into courses such as Engineering Risk Analysis and Structural Reliability, Disaster Mitigation and Recovery and Planning Methods, and Risk and Regulation and into two NSF Research Experience for Undergraduate (REU) summer institutes which blend geography, computer science, health, planning and social science undergraduate students in food security, disparities, and health research projects.This research will develop a decision platform that integrates computational models of ICISs at different spatial and temporal scales. These computational models will focus on the food distribution networks and include analytics of the socioeconomic causes of vulnerability. The decision platform may be used to examine issues related to reducing the risks associated with extreme hazards while enhancing community resilience with respect to food security. The project brings together three distinct disciplines: Engineering, SBE sciences, and Computer/Computational Sciences. Achieving project goals requires a deep collaboration between these three broad disciplines. Engineering is needed to understand and model the physical components of each sector and their interdependencies. SBE sciences are essential to understand and model food distribution from wholesale to households with a focus on vulnerable populations. Computer and Computational Science are needed to develop comprehensive models representing communities and their infrastructure and are the basis for assessing policy and organizational interventions that lead to greater robustness and resilience. The interdisciplinary nature of this research will also forge new channels of communication through models that integrate social and physical aspects of risk and vulnerability.

美国的经济和社会福祉依赖于相互依存的关键基础设施系统(ICISS)，如交通、能源、水和食品系统。这些ICISS塑造了国家满足社区需求的能力，这些能力往往是成功的，但不是所有人的能力，而且容易受到极端自然事件的破坏。在考虑粮食安全问题时，正常运作、长期问题和灾害引发的挑战之间的这种相互作用是显而易见的。食品的可获得性和可负担性是超过14%的美国人在正常情况下长期面临的问题，在灾难发生后，这一问题大大加剧。目前正在建立框架，以了解综合信息系统的相互依存关系、它们与应对自然灾害的社会和经济网络的联系，以及它们在脆弱人口的灾害恢复和粮食安全方面的作用。一个社区的粮食安全取决于其粮食分配网络的事前脆弱性和复原力，包括其基础设施系统孤立的脆弱性及其相互依存关系。此外，不同危害带来的需求、每个物理网络和系统响应这些需求的能力以及物理和社会系统之间的相互作用都是高度不确定的。因此，能够指导决策方法的风险知情方法对于描述需求和对社区的影响、预测社区反应以及设计具有弹性的社区基础设施系统至关重要。说明和综合不同国际减灾中心在应对灾害方面的表现的综合良好的决策方法具有广泛的影响。首先，这种方法将更好地框定关于减灾和恢复的问题，并将促进各种灾害情景的灾害规划活动和培训。其次，它们将鼓励制定政策，解决长期和严重的粮食安全问题，在缓解脆弱性和促进弹性之间取得平衡。最后，它们将在社会、行为和经济(SBE)科学家、计算科学家和工程师之间促进关于危害和风险的原因和特征以及缓解解决方案的共同语言。该项目将吸引不同类型的学生，包括妇女和少数民族，并参与以学生为中心的学习。它将在整个项目中整合研究和教育，并有效地传播成果。所开发的方法将被整合到工程风险分析与结构可靠性、减灾与恢复与规划方法、风险与监管等课程中，并被整合到两个面向本科生(REU)暑期研修班的NSF研究体验中，其中融合了地理、计算机科学、健康、规划和社会科学本科生在食品安全、差异和健康研究项目中的知识。这项研究将开发一个决策平台，整合ICISS在不同时空尺度上的计算模型。这些计算模型将侧重于粮食分配网络，并包括对脆弱性的社会经济原因的分析。该决策平台可用于审查与减少极端危险相关的风险，同时加强社区在粮食安全方面的复原力有关的问题。该项目汇集了三个不同的学科：工程学、SBE科学和计算机/计算科学。实现项目目标需要这三大学科之间的深度协作。需要工程学来了解每个部门的物理组件及其相互依赖关系并对其进行建模。SBE科学对于理解和模拟从批发到家庭的食品分配至关重要，重点是弱势群体。计算机和计算科学是开发代表社区及其基础设施的综合模型所必需的，是评估政策和组织干预措施的基础，这些干预措施可带来更大的稳健性和复原力。这项研究的跨学科性质还将通过整合风险和脆弱性的社会和物理方面的模型来打造新的沟通渠道。

项目成果

Economics, Insurance, and Flood Hazards

经济、保险和洪水灾害

• DOI: 10.1002/soej.12346
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Southern Economic Journal
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Kruse, Jamie;Hochard, Jacob
• 通讯作者: Hochard, Jacob