RAPID: Effect of Hurricane Florence on Homeowner Willingness to Engage in Flood Risk Mitigation and Buyout Contracts

由于未来自然灾害的地点和时间是未知的，因此很难确定在灾难发生之前，期间和之后对受影响人口进行抽样研究的时间。由于运气好，这个研究项目可以做到这一点。研究小组已经在飓风佛罗伦萨登陆之前和登陆期间进行了一项在线调查。该调查的目的是确定房主对房屋买断计划（购买和摧毁具有高洪水风险的房屋）和洪水缓解计划（补贴具有高洪水风险的房屋）的偏好。很大一部分样本来自飓风佛罗伦萨预测路径范围内的地区。这个快速反应研究（Rapid）项目将在飓风发生后立即（事件发生后1-2个月）和更遥远的未来（事件发生后约6个月）对相同的受访者进行调查。这种方法，结合财产的地理空间位置数据，将提供一个独特的理解，地理上接近灾害事件如何影响房主对不同类型的风险降低策略的偏好，以及这些偏好如何随着时间的推移而演变，因为事件和相应的新闻报道以及与之相关的恢复工作在受访者的记忆中变得越来越遥远。这一科研贡献支持了NSF促进科学进步和提高国家福利的使命。在这种情况下，好处将是改善洪泛平原房屋管理的见解，这可以挽救生命并减少经济损失。该项目的目的是确定人口、位置和合同属性对房主采取防洪措施或接受收购（买断）要约的可能性的影响。该调查是一个选择实验，收集了额外的家庭层面的数据，包括房主、洪水经历、对洪水风险的感知和财产的物理地址。除了佛罗伦萨飓风的洪水淹没地图外，该房产地址还将用于识别公共记录、海拔和联邦应急管理局洪水区指定中的结构特征。RAPID项目将扩展之前的调查数据，重新调查200名原始受访者，并收集额外的400份回复，以创建一个小组，该小组将进行两次额外调查，以判断看法的变化。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Because the location and timing of future natural disasters are unknown, it is difficult to time a research study to sample an impacted population prior to, during, and after a disaster occurs. Because of some good fortune, this research project can do exactly that. The research team was already administering an online survey prior to and during the landfall of Hurricane Florence. The goal of the survey is to identify homeowner preferences related to home buyout programs (purchasing and destroying homes with high flood risk) and flood mitigation programs (subsidizing the elevation of homes with high flood risk). A substantial portion of the sample came from areas within the predicted path of Hurricane Florence. This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project will survey the same respondents in the immediate aftermath of the hurricane (1-2 months after the event) and the more distant future (~ 6 months after the event). This methodology, combined with data on the geospatial location of the properties, will provide a unique understanding of how geographic proximity to a disaster event influences homeowner preference for different kinds of risk reduction strategies, as well as how these preferences evolve over time as the event and corresponding news coverage and recovery efforts associated with it become more distant in the memory of respondents. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare. In this case, the benefits will be insights to improve management of homes in flood plains, which can save lives and reduce economic losses.The purpose of this project is to identify the effect of demographic, location, and contract attributes on likelihood that the homeowner adopts flood mitigation or alternatively would accept an acquisition (buyout) offer. The survey is structured as a choice experiment with additional household level data collected on the homeowner, flood experience, perception of flood risk, and the physical address of the property. The property address will be used to identify structural characteristics in the public record, elevation, and FEMA flood zone designation, in addition to flood inundation maps for Hurricane Florence. This RAPID project will extend previous survey data, resurveying the 200 original respondents plus collecting an additional 400 responses to create a panel which will be surveyed two additional times to judge changes in perceptions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.