Collaborative Proposal: MSB-FRA: Alternative Ecological Futures for the American Residential Macrosystem

城市景观变化的一个明显但未经检验的结果是城市的同质化，例如，在美国不同地区的社区越来越多地在道路系统、住宅区、商业区和水域中表现出相似的模式;城市现在变得更加相似，而不是它们所取代的原生生态系统。这项研究建立在团队的基础上？美国国家科学基金会资助的研究？生态同质化？的？美国住宅宏观系统（ARM）？并专门调查因素，有助于稳定和/或变化的ARM。其目的是确定如何影响因素的变化？例如人类人口结构的变化、对生物多样性和水资源保护的需求、管理水资源使用和质量的法规以及生物体的扩散？将与有助于稳定的因素相互作用，如社会规范，财产价值，邻里和城市契约和法律，以及商业利益。该项目将确定可供选择的未来的ARM的生态影响，生态群落，生态系统功能，并在地块（生态系统），景观（城市），区域（大都市统计区）和大陆尺度的环境变化和干扰的反应。五种类型的住宅地块以及嵌入式半自然间隙生态系统将被研究，在美国六个城市（波士顿，巴尔的摩，迈阿密，明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗，凤凰城和洛杉矶）。教育和推广工作将集中在K-12教师和学生，并与市，县，州环境管理人员的合作政策努力。美国住宅宏观系统（ARM）的植物多样性，土壤碳和氮循环池和过程，小气候，水文和土地覆盖方面的生态同质化的影响。这种生态特征的相似性是由复杂和动态的人类行为在多个尺度上驱动的？例如，在一个实施例中，地块、邻里和区域？这将在50至100年的时间范围内塑造非洲大陆的结构和功能，对生态过程和环境质量可能产生重大的大陆规模影响。这项研究解决了两个核心问题。首先，哪些因素有助于维护和改变ARM？虽然这一宏观系统是草坪、灌木、树木和不透水表面的相对均匀的混合物，但迫切需要确定人口和种族的变化、对生物多样性和水资源保护的日益增长的愿望以及管理水资源使用和质量的法规等变化驱动因素如何与社会规范、财产价值、邻里和城市契约和法律等稳定因素相互作用，和商业利益。研究人员将测试这一假设，即虽然从自然和间隙区域，气候变化和房主知识的变化将促进生态变化的分散;机构，规范和价值观将作为抵消，稳定这些生态动态的力量。这一假设将通过在多个尺度上评估推动变革和稳定的因素来检验。结果将被用来产生定量的，基于数据的情况下，未来的土地利用模式在ARM. Second，有什么生态影响的替代未来的这个宏观系统的社区集会和生态系统功能在地块（生态系统），景观（城市），区域（大都市统计区），和大陆尺度？ 要测试的假设是，管理，促进养分和水的利用效率和野生动物的支持植物，以及较低的水和养分的投入将引起更大的区域生物多样性的营养水平，更高的养分保留，更低的用水量，并减少径流和土壤碳和氮的损失从住宅庭院在区域范围内。将在美国六个城市（波士顿、巴尔的摩、迈阿密、明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗、凤凰城和洛杉矶）研究五种不同管理目标和强度的住宅地块和嵌入式半自然间隙生态系统，以量化对生态动态的影响。这一信息将与土地使用情景相联系，以应对这些影响在区域和大陆范围内的影响。三名博士后将作为该项目的共同研究者接受指导。该研究计划还将包括与专注于可持续发展的市政决策者的互动，并增加一个新的？专家小组？这是康奈尔大学开发的YardMap公民科学计划的一个功能。

An apparent, but untested result of changes to the urban landscape is the homogenization of cities, such that neighborhoods in very different parts of the country increasingly exhibit similar patterns in their road systems, residential lots, commercial sites, and aquatic areas; cities have now become more similar to each other than to the native ecosystems that they replaced. This research builds on the team?s prior NSF funded research on the ?ecological homogenization? of the ?American Residential Macrosystem (ARM)? and specifically investigates factors that contribute to stability and/or changes in the ARM. The aim is to determine how factors that effect change?such as shifts in human demographics, desires for biodiversity and water conservation, regulations that govern water use and quality, and dispersal of organisms?will interact with factors that contribute to stability such as social norms, property values, neighborhood and city covenants and laws, and commercial interests. The project will determine ecological implications of alternative futures of the ARM for the assembly of ecological communities, ecosystem function, and responses to environmental change and disturbance at parcel (ecosystem), landscape (city), regional (Metropolitan Statistical Area) and continental scales. Five types of residential parcels as well as embedded semi-natural interstitial ecosystems will be studied, across six U.S. cities (Boston, Baltimore, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Phoenix, and Los Angeles). Education and outreach work will focus on K-12 teachers and students and on collaborative policy efforts with city, county, and state environmental managers.This project investigates urbanization?s impact on the ecological homogenization of the American Residential Macrosystem (ARM) in terms of plant biodiversity, soil carbon and nitrogen cycle pools and processes, microclimate, hydrography, and land cover. This similarity of ecological characteristics is driven by complex and dynamic human actions at multiple scales?e.g., parcel, neighborhood, and region?that will shape the structure and function of the ARM over 50 to 100 year time frames, with potentially significant continental scale effects on ecological processes and environmental quality. This research addresses two core questions. First, what factors contribute to maintenance and change in the ARM? While this macrosystem is a relatively homogeneous mixture of grass lawns, shrubs, trees and impervious surfaces, there is a critical need to determine how drivers of change such as shifts in human population and ethnicity, increasing desires for biodiversity and water conservation, and regulations governing water use and quality will interact with stabilizing factors such as social norms, property values, neighborhood and city covenants and laws, and commercial interests. Researchers will test the hypothesis that that although dispersal from natural and interstitial areas, climate change, and changes in homeowner knowledge will promote ecological change; institutions, norms and values will function as counteracting, stabilizing forces on these ecological dynamics. This hypothesis will be tested by evaluating the factors that motivate change and stability at multiple scales. Results will be used to produce quantitative, data-based scenarios of future land-use patterns in the ARM. Second, what are the ecological implications of alternative futures of this macrosystem for community assembly and ecosystem function at parcel (ecosystem), landscape (city), regional (Metropolitan Statistical Area), and continental scales? The hypothesis to be tested is that management that promotes nutrient- and water-use efficient and wildlife-supporting plants as well as lower inputs of water and nutrients will give rise to greater regional biodiversity across trophic levels, higher nutrient retention, lower water use, and reduced runoff and losses of soil carbon and nitrogen from residential yards at the regional scale. Five types of residential parcels that vary in management goals and intensity and embedded semi-natural interstitial ecosystems will be studied in six U.S. cities across the U.S. (Boston, Baltimore, Miami, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Phoenix, and Los Angeles), to quantify influences on ecological dynamics. This information will be linked to land use scenarios to address the regional and continental-scale impacts of these effects. Three postdocs will be mentored as co-investigators on this project. The research program will also include interaction with municipal decision makers focused on sustainability and add a new ?Panel of Experts? feature to the YardMap citizen science program developed at Cornell University.