The Influence of Sea Ice Motion on Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion

卫星观测显示，南极海冰在过去30年里不断扩大。与全球气温上升或北冰洋海冰缩小的观测结果相比，南极海冰的增加似乎出人意料。全球气候的计算机模型也预测南极海冰将缩小而不是增长。有几个假说被提出来解释科学家基于计算机模型和物理直觉所期望看到的东西与观测中记录的生长之间的矛盾。这项研究将检验一种假设，即海冰的扩张可以通过海冰运动来解释，海冰运动的方式促进了整体覆盖率的增加。研究人员将使用几种不同类型的计算机模型，复杂程度不一，以更好地了解海冰运动的物理过程，以及海冰运动如何与更大的大气-海洋系统相互作用。该团队将通过举办为期一周的教师研讨会将他们的研究转移到课堂上。教师将学习科学家如何使用计算机模型来测试假设，然后开发和测试在课堂上使用的工具。五名初中和高中教师将参与并成为加州大学圣地亚哥分校STEM成功倡议科学教师大师网络的一部分。该项目将支持一名研究生和一名博士后研究人员。最近，海冰运动已成为解释南极海冰扩张的候选之一，但迄今为止，关于海冰运动如何影响海冰集中的系统研究尚未提出。研究人员将使用一系列模型对海冰运动和南极海冰范围之间的关系进行面向过程的研究。该体系将包括(1)理想化的单柱海冰演变模式，(2)理想化的纬度变化的全球海冰和气候模式，(3)包括海冰运动的板条海洋上方的大气全球气候模式(GCM)，(4)综合的GCM，和(5)从目前综合的GCM中输出的模式。模型复杂性的范围将帮助研究人员更好地理解海冰运动和海冰范围之间的关系，因为他们可以识别出整个模型层次结构中健壮的重要过程。

Satellite observations show expanding Antarctic sea ice over the last three decades. Increasing Antarctic sea ice seems unexpected when compared to observations of rising global temperatures or shrinking Arctic sea ice. Computer models of global climate also predict Antarctic sea ice to shrink instead of grow. Several hypotheses have been suggested to explain the contradiction between what scientists expect to see based on computer models and physical intuition and the growth that is recorded in observations. This study will examine the hypothesis that sea ice expansion can be explained by sea ice motion, where sea ice moves in such a way as to promote an increase in overall coverage. Researchers will use several different types of computer models, ranging in complexity, to better understand the physical processes of sea ice motion and how the sea ice motion interacts with the larger atmosphere-ocean system. The team will transfer their research to the classroom by hosting a week-long teacher workshop. Teachers will learn how scientists use computer models to test hypotheses and then develop and test tools for use in the classroom. Five middle and high school teachers will participate and become part of the UC San Diego STEM Success Initiative master science teacher network. The project will support a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher.Sea ice motion has recently emerged as one of the candidates to explain the Antarctic sea ice expansion but a systematic investigation of how sea ice motion influences sea ice concentration has not been presented to date. Researchers will conduct a process-oriented study of the relationship between sea ice motion and Antarctic sea ice extent using a hierarchy of models. The hierarchy will consist of (i) an idealized single-column model of sea ice evolution, (ii) an idealized latitudinally-varying global model of sea ice and climate, (iii) an atmospheric global climate model (GCM) above a slab ocean that includes sea ice motion, (iv) a comprehensive GCM, and (v) model output from the suite of current comprehensive GCMs. The range of model complexities will help researchers better understand the relationship between sea ice motion and sea ice extent by allowing them to identify important processes that are robust across the model hierarchy.