The Influence of Sea Ice Motion on Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion

卫星观测显示，南极海冰在过去三十年中不断扩大。与观测到的全球气温上升或北极海冰萎缩相比，南极海冰的增加似乎出乎意料。全球气候的计算机模型也预测南极海冰将缩小而不是增长。为了解释科学家基于计算机模型和物理直觉所期望看到的与观测记录的增长之间的矛盾，人们提出了几个假设。这项研究将检验海冰扩张可以用海冰运动来解释的假设，即海冰以这样一种方式移动，从而促进总体覆盖率的增加。研究人员将使用几种不同类型的计算机模型，以更好地了解海冰运动的物理过程，以及海冰运动如何与更大的大气-海洋系统相互作用。该团队将通过举办为期一周的教师研讨会，将他们的研究转移到课堂上。教师将学习科学家如何使用计算机模型来测试假设，然后开发和测试课堂上使用的工具。五名初中和高中教师将参加并成为加州大学圣地亚哥分校STEM成功计划硕士科学教师网络的一部分。该项目将资助一名研究生和一名博士后研究员。海冰运动最近成为解释南极海冰扩张的候选因素之一，但迄今为止还没有对海冰运动如何影响海冰浓度进行系统的调查。研究人员将使用层次模型对海冰运动和南极海冰范围之间的关系进行面向过程的研究。该层次结构将包括(i)海冰演变的理想单柱模式，（ii）海冰和气候的理想纬度变化全球模式，（iii）包括海冰运动的平板海洋上的大气全球气候模式（GCM）， （iv）综合GCM，以及(v)当前综合GCM套的模型输出。模型复杂性的范围将帮助研究人员更好地理解海冰运动和海冰范围之间的关系，使他们能够识别在模型层次结构中健壮的重要过程。

Satellite observations show expanding Antarctic sea ice over the last three decades. Increasing Antarctic sea ice seems unexpected when compared to observations of rising global temperatures or shrinking Arctic sea ice. Computer models of global climate also predict Antarctic sea ice to shrink instead of grow. Several hypotheses have been suggested to explain the contradiction between what scientists expect to see based on computer models and physical intuition and the growth that is recorded in observations. This study will examine the hypothesis that sea ice expansion can be explained by sea ice motion, where sea ice moves in such a way as to promote an increase in overall coverage. Researchers will use several different types of computer models, ranging in complexity, to better understand the physical processes of sea ice motion and how the sea ice motion interacts with the larger atmosphere-ocean system. The team will transfer their research to the classroom by hosting a week-long teacher workshop. Teachers will learn how scientists use computer models to test hypotheses and then develop and test tools for use in the classroom. Five middle and high school teachers will participate and become part of the UC San Diego STEM Success Initiative master science teacher network. The project will support a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher.Sea ice motion has recently emerged as one of the candidates to explain the Antarctic sea ice expansion but a systematic investigation of how sea ice motion influences sea ice concentration has not been presented to date. Researchers will conduct a process-oriented study of the relationship between sea ice motion and Antarctic sea ice extent using a hierarchy of models. The hierarchy will consist of (i) an idealized single-column model of sea ice evolution, (ii) an idealized latitudinally-varying global model of sea ice and climate, (iii) an atmospheric global climate model (GCM) above a slab ocean that includes sea ice motion, (iv) a comprehensive GCM, and (v) model output from the suite of current comprehensive GCMs. The range of model complexities will help researchers better understand the relationship between sea ice motion and sea ice extent by allowing them to identify important processes that are robust across the model hierarchy.