CAREER: Understanding the Source of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Predictability and its Impact on the Mid-latitudes

麦登-朱利安涛动（MJO）是亚季节可预测性的主要来源之一。MJO是一种特殊类型的有组织热带对流系统，其独特之处在于其巨大的水平空间尺度、亚季节时间尺度以及在印度洋-太平洋暖池上空的向东传播。与MJO相关的对流增强或抑制影响全球天气和气候，从而在亚季节时间尺度上提供可预测性来源。因此，了解MJO的基本动态和可预测性是改进热带亚季节预报以及中纬度MJO相关现象的关键。本研究的目的是了解MJO的可预测性及其对高影响天气事件（如西海岸极端降水）的可预测性的影响。主要任务是：(1)研究MJO的理论极限，(2)研究MJO传播的物理过程和平均状态变化的影响，以及(3)研究MJO与极端降水事件关联的潜在机制。该研究项目将利用卫星观测、再分析和气候模式的数值实验。提高我们对亚季节可预测性的理解将对农业、商业、医疗保健和粮食生产产生全球性影响。更好地预测MJO和相关的高影响极端降水事件将为决策者、应急管理人员和其他利益攸关方提供提前预警，为减灾措施做好准备。教育活动的目标是通过增加代表性不足的少数民族和妇女学生的人数来增加大气科学的多样性。更具体地说，目标是(i)与当地社区学院建立强有力的合作，以促进与他们的大气科学项目的合作发展；（ii）增加从社区学院转到四年制大气科学项目的少数族裔学生的数量；（iii）最终进入大气科学工作队伍或研究生院。教育活动将侧重于提高计算机编程技能和提高代表性不足的少数民族和妇女学生的研究能力，从而增加大气科学领域的多样性。

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the main sources for the subseasonal predictability. The MJO is a special type of organized tropical convection systems which is distinct from others types by its vast horizontal spatial scale, subseasonal time scale, and eastward propagation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. Enhanced or suppressed convection associated with the MJO affects global weather and climate, thereby providing a source of predictability in the subseasonal time scale. Therefore, understanding the essential dynamics and predictability of the MJO is key to improving subseasonal prediction in the tropics as well as MJO-related phenomena in the mid-latitude. The objectives of this study are to understand the predictability of the MJO and its impacts on predictability of high-impact weather events (such as extreme precipitation along the west coast). The main tasks are (i) to investigate the theoretical limit of the MJO, (ii) to investigate the physical processes for MJO propagation and the impact of the mean state change, and (iii) to examine the underlying mechanisms of the associations of MJO with extreme precipitation events. The research project will utilize satellite observations, reanalysis, and numerical experiments with a climate model.Improving our understanding of subseasonal predictability will have global impacts on agriculture, commerce, healthcare, and food production. Better prediction of the MJO and related high-impact extreme precipitation events will provide policy makers, emergency managers, and other stakeholders with advanced warnings to prepare for mitigation measures. The goal of the educational activities is to increase diversity in atmospheric science by increasing the number of under-represented minority and women students. More specifically, the objectives are (i) to build strong collaborations with local community colleges in order to foster collaborative growth with their atmospheric science programs, (ii) to increase the number of under-represented minority students that transfer from community colleges to 4-year atmospheric science programs, and (iii) to culminate with their studies either into the atmospheric science workforce or graduate school. The educational activities will focus on enhancing computer programming skills and on improving research ability for under-represented minority and women students, thereby increasing diversity in the atmospheric science field.