Coastal Erosion Vulnerabilities, Monsoon Dynamics, and Human Adaptive Response

海岸侵蚀脆弱性、季风动力学和人类适应性响应

• 批准号: 1660447
• 负责人: Thomas Crawford
• 金额: $ 40.59万
• 依托单位: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-01 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1660447&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Coastal; Erosion; Vulnerabilities; Monsoon; Dynamics

This project will investigate how coastal erosion in low elevation environments is linked to seasonal precipitation patterns, how humans perceive their vulnerability to erosion risk, and how humans secure livelihoods in the face of erosion. Rural populations in coastal zones are dependent on land resources to support agriculture and on marine resources to support fishery-based activities. Coastal erosion has potential to threaten economic and geopolitical stabilities due to the permanent nature of lost land resources that deprives population of land-based resources and access to marine resources. Variation in the location and timing of erosion events produces uncertainty for populations who must negotiate erosion threats without the benefit of consistent science-informed information regarding risk and vulnerability. This project contributes to a better understanding of the intersection of coastal environmental change, lowland coastal populations, atmospheric science, and economic development. Results will inform coastal processes, as well as human vulnerability and resilience, and will also make methodological advances in quantitative geospatial analysis. Students will be trained in STEM science and project elements will be used to enhance modules of existing courses at two universities. Project results will be disseminated in journals and other outlets, presented to government agencies and NGOs, and shared with local stakeholders. The project will become registered with the Resilience Connections Network, an international virtual space for the interaction between global and local leaders on resilience science and practitioners. The study site for this project is the delta of a large river that is the outlet for water discharge driven by monsoon precipitation in a large watershed with a shoreline particularly vulnerable to erosion. The region has high rates of annual erosion whereby shorelines may retreat over 100 meters per year causing livelihood disruption and displacement of farming and fishing households. The project has three objectives. The first objective characterizes time-space patterns of shoreline erosion and monsoon dynamics at multiple scales. Understanding erosion rates at annual scales is particularly important to characterize vulnerability because households need to forecast and respond over relatively short time horizons that are not resolved at coarser decadal scales. The second objective assesses predictive relationships between monsoon precipitation and erosion dynamics with the hypothesis that time-space patterns of rainfall can help predict erosion behavior. A third objective assesses social vulnerability, risk perception and how resource endowments and adaptive behavior may promote resilience. These objectives will be addressed using a mixed-methods approach that combines geospatial analysis using earth observation data, statistical and machine-learning predictive modelling, and quantitative and qualitative primary social data collected in two villages. Investigators will produce an approximately 50-year time series record of shoreline change that will used in concert with monthly precipitation data to develop an annual predictive model of erosion risk. Field research will be done to collect social data from local populations in terms of their risk perception, vulnerability, and adaption behaviors by conducting a household survey, focus groups, and key informant interviews. Although the project will focus on the delta region of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system in Bangladesh, the research will provide new insights for dealing with coastal erosion in densely populated coastal zones in other regions, including the United States.

该项目将调查低海拔环境中的海岸侵蚀如何与季节性降水模式联系在一起，人类如何认识到他们对侵蚀风险的脆弱性，以及人类如何在面临侵蚀的情况下确保生计。沿海地区的农村人口依靠土地资源支持农业，依靠海洋资源支持渔业活动。海岸侵蚀有可能威胁经济和地缘政治稳定，因为失去的土地资源具有永久性，使人们丧失陆地资源和获取海洋资源的机会。侵蚀事件的地点和时间的变化给人口带来了不确定性，他们必须在没有关于风险和脆弱性的一致的科学信息的情况下就侵蚀威胁进行谈判。该项目有助于更好地了解沿海环境变化、低地沿海人口、大气科学和经济发展之间的交集。结果将为沿海进程以及人类的脆弱性和复原力提供信息，并将在定量地理空间分析的方法方面取得进展。学生将接受STEM科学方面的培训，项目元素将用于加强两所大学现有课程的模块。项目成果将在期刊和其他渠道传播，提交给政府机构和非政府组织，并与当地利益攸关方分享。该项目将在复原力连接网络注册，这是一个国际虚拟空间，用于全球和地方复原力科学领导人和实践者之间的互动。该项目的研究地点是一条大河的三角洲，这是一个由季风降水驱动的大流域的排水口，其海岸线特别容易受到侵蚀。该区域的年侵蚀率很高，海岸线每年可能后退100米以上，造成生计中断，农家和渔户流离失所。该项目有三个目标。第一个目标描述了多尺度上的海岸线侵蚀和季风动力学的时空模式。了解年尺度的侵蚀率对于确定脆弱性特征尤为重要，因为家庭需要在相对较短的时间范围内预测和应对，而这些时间范围并不是以较粗的十年尺度来解决的。第二个目标评估季风降水和侵蚀动力学之间的预测关系，假设降雨的时空模式可以帮助预测侵蚀行为。第三个目标评估社会脆弱性、风险认知，以及资源禀赋和适应性行为如何促进韧性。这些目标将采用混合方法，结合使用地球观测数据的地理空间分析、统计和机器学习预测模型以及在两个村庄收集的定量和定性初级社会数据。调查人员将制作一份大约50年的海岸线变化的时间序列记录，并与每月的降雨量数据结合使用，以开发侵蚀风险的年度预测模型。将进行实地调查，通过家庭调查、焦点小组和关键线人访谈，从当地人口收集风险认知、脆弱性和适应行为方面的社会数据。尽管该项目将重点放在孟加拉国恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳河水系的三角洲地区，但这项研究将为应对包括美国在内的其他地区人口稠密的沿海地区的海岸侵蚀提供新的见解。

项目成果

Explaining mobility using the Community Capital Framework and Place Attachment concepts: A case study of riverbank erosion in the Lower Meghna Estuary, Bangladesh

• DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102199
• 发表时间: 2020-12
• 期刊: Applied Geography
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Bimal Kanti Paul;M. Rahman;T. Crawford;S. Curtis;M. G. Miah;M. Rafiqul Islam;Md Sariful Islam

Evaluation of predicted loss of different land use and land cover (LULC) due to coastal erosion in Bangladesh

孟加拉国海岸侵蚀造成的不同土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）预计损失的评估

• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2023.1144686
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Frontiers in Environmental Science
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Islam, Md Sariful;Crawford, Thomas W.;Shao, Yang
• 通讯作者: Shao, Yang

Resident perceptions of riverbank erosion and shoreline protection: a mixed-methods case study from Bangladesh

居民对河岸侵蚀和海岸线保护的看法：孟加拉国的混合方法案例研究

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05489-3
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Natural Hazards
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Rahman, Mizanur;Popke, Jeff;Crawford, Thomas W.
• 通讯作者: Crawford, Thomas W.

Monsoon Dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin

恒河-雅鲁藏布江-梅格纳盆地的季风动力学

• DOI: 10.3390/chycle-2017-04865
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: The 1st Electronic Conference on Hydrological Cycle (CHyCle-2017
• 作者: Curtis, Scott;Crawford, Thomas;Munshi, Khaled;Paul, Bimal
• 通讯作者: Paul, Bimal

Coupled Adaptive Cycles of Shoreline Change and Households in Deltaic Bangladesh: Analysis of a 30-Year Shoreline Change Record and Recent Population Impacts

• DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2020.1799746
• 发表时间: 2020-09
• 期刊: Annals of the American Association of Geographers
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: T. Crawford;M. Rahman;M. G. Miah;Md. Rafiqul Islam;B. Paul;S. Curtis;Md Nazmul Islam