Ecological Similitude and Scaling for Robust Modeling and Predictions of Ecosystem Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

1705941(阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹)。本研究的目标是发现生态系统碳、水和能量通量的相似模式和标度规律，并建立在不同时间和空间尺度下通量预测的稳健模型。基本假设是生态系统通量遵循新兴生态相似性和尺度规律，这将导致稳健的估计和预测模型。具体研究目标为：(1)确定生态系统碳（CO2）、潜热（LE）和敏感热(H)通量在不同时间和空间尺度上与相关气候、水文和生态变量的相对联系；(2)研究生态系统通量的相似性（参数约简），建立有意义的无量纲群，并建立尺度规律（涌现模式）；(3)建立具有时空鲁棒性的生态系统通量预测经验模型。该研究将利用AmeriFlux在美国多个站点（100个以上）的不同时间尺度（如小时、日、周、月、年）和时间段（如2000-2015年）的通量、气候、环境和生态变量数据，代表水文气候、生物地球化学和生态过程的梯度。通过量纲分析和经验建模实现研究目标，已成功应用于流体力学、水利工程和河流生态学等领域。该研究基于先前的湿地生物地球化学相似性和标度项目，利用基于室内的野外数据可靠地预测湿地温室气体通量。该项目将使用基于通量塔的涡流协方差数据（AmeriFlux）来概括不同时间（小时到年）和空间（地点、区域、大陆）尺度下不同生态系统（如落叶林、常绿针叶林、雨林、草原、农田、湿地）的相似性、尺度和稳健建模假设。该研究将通过对生态系统碳、水和能量通量的出现模式（相似性和规模）提供见解、理解和广泛的知识，促进环境的可持续性。稳健、简洁的模型可以作为简单的、尺度无关的工程工具来预测大范围的空间和时间尺度上的生态系统通量。研究成果将通过期刊出版物、会议演讲、研究生论文、报告、YouTube视频和开放访问的项目网站广泛传播。研究成果将用于生态水文工程（本科）和生态工程（研究生）两门跨学科课程的教学，采用归纳学习方法。高中学生和教师也将通过外展活动参与研究。

1705941 (Abdul-Aziz). The goal of this research is to discover the similitude patterns and scaling laws of ecosystem carbon, water and energy fluxes, and formulate robust models to predict the fluxes at variable time and space scales. The underlying hypothesis is that the ecosystem fluxes follow emergent ecological similitude and scaling laws, which will lead to robust estimation and predictive models. The specific research objectives are to (1) identify the dominant drivers and quantify the relative linkages of ecosystem carbon (CO2), latent heat (LE) and sensitive heat (H) fluxes with the relevant climatic, hydrologic and ecological variables at different time and space scales; (2) investigate similitude (parametric reductions), formulate meaningful dimensionless groups, and develop scaling laws (emergent patterns) for the ecosystem fluxes; and (3) formulate spatiotemporally robust empirical models for predicting the ecosystem fluxes from diverse ecosystems. The research will utilize the AmeriFlux data of fluxes, climate, environmental, and ecological variables for different time-scales (e.g., hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly) and periods (e.g., 2000-2015) at numerous sites (above 100) across America, representing gradients of hydroclimatic, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. The research objectives will be achieved by conducting dimensional analysis and empirical modeling, which has successfully been applied in fluid mechanics, hydraulic engineering and stream ecology. The research builds on a previous project on wetland biogeochemical similitude and scaling to robustly predict wetland greenhouse gas fluxes by using chamber-based field data. This project will use flux tower-based eddy-covariance data (AmeriFlux) to generalize the similitude, scaling and robust modeling hypothesis across diverse ecosystems (e.g., deciduous forests, evergreen needleleaf forests, rain forests, grasslands, croplands, wetlands) at variable time (hour to year) and space (site, region, continent) scales. The research will promote environmental sustainability by contributing insights, understanding, and broad knowledge into the emergence (similarity and scaling) patterns of ecosystem carbon, water and energy fluxes. Robust, parsimonious models can be utilized as simple, scale-independent engineering tools to predict the ecosystem fluxes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Research outcomes will be broadly disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, graduate dissertations, reports, YouTube videos, and an open-access project website. The research findings will be utilized to teach two interdisciplinary courses, Ecohydrological Engineering (undergraduate) and Ecological Engineering (graduate), using inductive learning methods. High school students and teachers will also be involved with the research through outreach activities.