Ecological Similitude and Scaling for Robust Modeling and Predictions of Ecosystem Carbon, Water and Energy Fluxes

1705941(阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹)。本研究的目的是发现生态系统碳、水和能量通量的相似模式和尺度规律，并建立稳健的模型来预测不同时空尺度下的碳、水和能量通量。其基本假设是生态系统通量遵循突现的生态相似和尺度规律，这将导致稳健的估计和预测模型。具体的研究目标是(1)确定主要驱动因素，并量化生态系统碳(CO2)、潜热(LE)和敏感热(H)通量与不同时空尺度上相关气候、水文和生态变量的相对联系；(2)研究相似性(参数折减)，形成有意义的无量纲群体，并制定生态系统通量的标度律(涌现模式)；(3)建立时空稳健的经验模型，用于预测不同生态系统的生态系统通量。该研究将利用美国各地许多地点(100以上)不同时间尺度(如每小时、每天、每周、每月、每年)和时期(如2000-2015年)的通量、气候、环境和生态变量的ameriFlux数据，代表水文气候、生物地球化学和生态过程的梯度。通过量纲分析和经验建模来实现研究目标，并已成功应用于流体力学、水利工程和河流生态学。这项研究建立在以前的湿地生物地球化学相似和尺度项目的基础上，通过使用基于室内的现场数据来强有力地预测湿地温室气体通量。该项目将使用基于通量塔的涡旋协方差数据(AmeriFlux)，在不同的时间(小时到一年)和空间(站点、区域、大陆)的尺度上推广不同生态系统(例如落叶林、常绿针叶林、雨林、草原、农田、湿地)的相似性、尺度和稳健的建模假说。这项研究将通过对生态系统碳、水和能量通量的出现(相似和缩放)模式提供洞察力、理解和广泛的知识来促进环境可持续性。稳健、简约的模型可以作为简单的、与尺度无关的工程工具来预测生态系统在广泛的空间和时间尺度上的通量。研究成果将通过期刊出版物、会议报告、毕业论文、报告、YouTube视频和一个开放访问的项目网站广泛传播。研究成果将被用来教授两门跨学科课程，生态水文学工程(本科)和生态工程(研究生)，采用归纳式学习方法。高中生和教师也将通过外展活动参与研究。

1705941 (Abdul-Aziz). The goal of this research is to discover the similitude patterns and scaling laws of ecosystem carbon, water and energy fluxes, and formulate robust models to predict the fluxes at variable time and space scales. The underlying hypothesis is that the ecosystem fluxes follow emergent ecological similitude and scaling laws, which will lead to robust estimation and predictive models. The specific research objectives are to (1) identify the dominant drivers and quantify the relative linkages of ecosystem carbon (CO2), latent heat (LE) and sensitive heat (H) fluxes with the relevant climatic, hydrologic and ecological variables at different time and space scales; (2) investigate similitude (parametric reductions), formulate meaningful dimensionless groups, and develop scaling laws (emergent patterns) for the ecosystem fluxes; and (3) formulate spatiotemporally robust empirical models for predicting the ecosystem fluxes from diverse ecosystems. The research will utilize the AmeriFlux data of fluxes, climate, environmental, and ecological variables for different time-scales (e.g., hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly) and periods (e.g., 2000-2015) at numerous sites (above 100) across America, representing gradients of hydroclimatic, biogeochemical, and ecological processes. The research objectives will be achieved by conducting dimensional analysis and empirical modeling, which has successfully been applied in fluid mechanics, hydraulic engineering and stream ecology. The research builds on a previous project on wetland biogeochemical similitude and scaling to robustly predict wetland greenhouse gas fluxes by using chamber-based field data. This project will use flux tower-based eddy-covariance data (AmeriFlux) to generalize the similitude, scaling and robust modeling hypothesis across diverse ecosystems (e.g., deciduous forests, evergreen needleleaf forests, rain forests, grasslands, croplands, wetlands) at variable time (hour to year) and space (site, region, continent) scales. The research will promote environmental sustainability by contributing insights, understanding, and broad knowledge into the emergence (similarity and scaling) patterns of ecosystem carbon, water and energy fluxes. Robust, parsimonious models can be utilized as simple, scale-independent engineering tools to predict the ecosystem fluxes across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Research outcomes will be broadly disseminated through journal publications, conference presentations, graduate dissertations, reports, YouTube videos, and an open-access project website. The research findings will be utilized to teach two interdisciplinary courses, Ecohydrological Engineering (undergraduate) and Ecological Engineering (graduate), using inductive learning methods. High school students and teachers will also be involved with the research through outreach activities.