CAREER: Decision Theoretic Life Cycle Assessment

该CAREER项目旨在创建一个决策理论生命周期评估（DT-LCA）框架，以关键地提高LCA的预测能力和有用性，以支持决策。特别是，该项目将利用DT-LCA处理与饮用水应急规划和反应有关的健康、经济和环境问题。目标是使LCA能够解决关于各种人类决策因素如何影响可持续性结果，以及可持续性结果如何影响决策的重要问题。DT-LCA方法将使用一种沉浸式的基于游戏的方法，让利益相关者参与简化但现实的决策场景。与确定性LCA方法不同，DT-LCA基于利益相关者在游戏过程中做出的实际决策，以迭代、动态的方式模拟可持续性结果。它将社会实验、计算机建模、教育和推广结合到一个综合框架中。本研究旨在通过严谨的博弈将LCA与利益相关者的决策紧密结合，从而提高LCA的实施方式。决策因素包括风险态度、组织间网络和获得LCA结果将被引入游戏的实验设计中，以调查它们对可持续性结果的影响。收集参与游戏前后的利益相关者概念图，研究DT-LCA对学习的影响。这些影响将通过统计和机器学习技术、网络分析和文本挖掘来分析从严肃游戏中获得的定量和定性数据。本项目旨在产生以下方面的新知识：1)人类决策因素（包括风险态度和组织间网络）对可持续性结果的影响；2)可持续发展成果知识对决策的影响；3)紧密耦合决策评估框架对利益相关者学习以及提高饮用水应急规划和响应实践可持续性的有效性。该项目还将导致1)DT-LCA框架的发展，该框架允许评估和决策的紧密耦合；2)一种新颖的严肃游戏，用于参与式学习饮用水应急规划和响应；3)包含各种决策情景和相关系统响应的安全规划模型和应急响应模型；4)将失效风险相关影响纳入可持续性措施的方法；5)一个教学包，可以整合到本科和研究生水平的课程中，供自学者使用。该项目将通过研讨会和众包的方式吸引至少50名来自新罕布什尔州的利益相关者，以及其他水务行业的专业人士和公众。将开发一个教学包，包括该项目中的游戏和模拟工具，该教学包将整合到新罕布什尔大学（UNH）的三门本科和研究生课程中。该课程旨在帮助学生获得新的知识和技能，这些知识和技能对于管理可持续性挑战背后的复杂性至关重要。该项目的主要成果将通过联合国大学的工程教师研究经验（RETE）计划、现有的科学教育网络（NHISE）、会议研讨会和演讲、网络研讨会、社交媒体帖子和期刊出版物进一步传播到更广泛的社区。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This CAREER project aims to create a decision theoretic life cycle assessment (DT-LCA) framework to critically advance LCA’s predictive power and usefulness in support of decision-making. In particular, the project will use DT-LCA to address health, economic, and environmental aspects related to drinking water emergency planning and response. The goal is to enable LCA to address important questions regarding how various human decision factors influence sustainability outcomes, and in turn, how sustainability outcomes influence decision-making. The DT-LCA approach will use an immersive game-based approach to engage stakeholders in simplified but realistic decision scenarios. Unlike the deterministic LCA approach, DT-LCA simulates sustainability outcomes in an iterative, dynamic manner based upon actual decisions made by stakeholders during the game. It combines social experimenting, computer modeling, education, and outreach into one integrated framework.The research seeks to enhance the way LCA is conducted by tightly coupling it with stakeholder decision- making through serious gaming. Decision factors including risk attitudes, interorganizational networks, and access to LCA results will be introduced into the game’s experimental design to investigate their influences on sustainability outcomes. Stakeholder concept maps before and after game participation will be collected to study the influence of the DT-LCA on learning. These influences will be characterized by analyzing the quantitative and qualitative data obtained from the serious game through statistical and machine learning techniques, network analysis, and text mining. This project aims to generate new knowledge in 1) the influences of human decision factors including risk attitudes and interorganizational networks on sustainability outcomes; 2) the influences of knowledge about sustainability outcomes on decision-making; and, 3) the effectiveness of a tightly coupled decision-assessment framework on stakeholder learning as well as on improving the sustainability of drinking water emergency planning and response practices. This project will also result in the development of 1) a DT-LCA framework that allows for the tight coupling of assessment and decision-making; 2) a novel serious game for engaged learning about drinking water emergency planning and response; 3) a safety planning model and an emergency response model that incorporate various decision scenarios and the associated system responses; 4) a method to integrate impacts related to failure risks into sustainability measures; and, 5) a teaching packet that can be integrated into undergraduate and graduate level courses and be used by self-learners. This project will engage at least 50 stakeholders from New Hampshire along with additional water industry professionals and the general public through workshops and crowdsourcing. A teaching packet will be developed to encompass the game and the simulation tool from this project, and the teaching packet will be integrated into three undergraduate and graduate courses at University of New Hampshire (UNH). This is targeted to help students obtain new knowledge and skillsets that are critical to manage the complexity behind sustainability challenges. Key outcomes from the project will be further disseminated to a broader community through the UNH’s Research Experience for Teachers of Engineering (RETE) program, an existing science educator network (NHISE), conference workshops and presentations, webinars, social media posts, and journal publications.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.