Earthquake Precursors and Controls on Earthquake Magnitudes: Probing the Behavior of Megathrust Faults through Numerical Simulations
地震前兆和地震震级的控制:通过数值模拟探讨巨型逆冲断层的行为
基本信息
- 批准号:1723249
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 20.58万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2017
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2017-08-01 至 2021-07-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Large or great earthquakes that occur along subduction zones rupture large portions of the fault interfaces, releasing substantial accumulated energy capable of causing catastrophic damage and disruption. As such earthquakes define a major geohazard, particularly to coastal areas vulnerable to large tsunami, understanding the controls on earthquake size and the predictors of their occurrence along megathrust faults is of critical societal relevance to the US and around the world. This project will provide new insights into how and why earthquakes occur on these major faults, and what determines how large they can become. We will use numerical modeling to simulate the conditions present in such settings, to predict fault behavior. Earthquakes are of great popular interest, and our models of virtual earthquakes will provide a stimulating way to inform the public about natural processes and their effects. We will prepare and distribute animations of our earthquake simulations and related phenomena by way of a webpage, and communicate our science through collaborative arrangements with local schools and Rice teacher training courses. We will also develop new course materials that can be used in undergraduate geology courses. In this study, we will carry out a systematic modeling study using particle dynamics simulations to examine the controls on seismic and aseismic slip on numerical analogs of heterogeneous faults modeled after subduction megathrusts. Consistent with subduction megathrusts, our research will focus on asymmetric faults in which stress and strength vary along the length of the fault. We will use these simulations to develop catalogs of slip events in both 2D and 3D, and then probe conditions along the fault before, during, and after the events to gain insights into the conditions that initiate unstable sliding, and those that cause run-away slip to stop. The overarching questions we plan to address are: (1) What controls the size of an earthquake? Is earthquake size predetermined, and if so, by what? (2) Are there any consistent precursory phenomena (e.g., deformation) or properties changes that can inform us about the onset of seismic slip? To address these questions, we will probe the model data, including particle displacements, forces, packing arrangements, etc., to obtain direct constraints on stress and strains and their variations in space and time, as well as evolving mechanical properties such as friction, dilatancy, strength, and stiffness. In this way, we can explore specific controls on earthquake rupture and other slip behaviors. We will also compare our catalogs of simulated earthquakes, correlated with the properties changes listed above, with natural systems. Our models will help to clarify the characteristics of faults responsible for different types of earthquakes, and the processes that initiate and limit them, advancing our knowledge in this area. This project will support one graduate student and one undergraduate student, and formalize interdisciplinary collaborations at Rice. We will publish and present our results at national and international meetings.
沿着俯冲带发生的大地震会使断层界面的大部分破裂,释放出大量积累的能量,能够造成灾难性的破坏和破坏。由于此类地震被定义为重大地质灾害,特别是对于易受大海啸影响的沿海地区,了解对地震规模的控制以及巨型逆冲断层沿线发生地震的预测因素对于美国和世界各地都具有至关重要的社会意义。该项目将为了解这些主要断层如何以及为何发生地震,以及决定地震规模的因素提供新的见解。我们将使用数值模型来模拟此类设置中存在的条件,以预测故障行为。地震引起了人们极大的兴趣,我们的虚拟地震模型将提供一种刺激的方式来让公众了解自然过程及其影响。我们将通过网页制作和分发地震模拟和相关现象的动画,并通过与当地学校和莱斯大学教师培训课程的合作安排来传播我们的科学知识。我们还将开发可用于本科地质学课程的新课程材料。在这项研究中,我们将利用粒子动力学模拟进行系统的建模研究,以检查对俯冲巨型逆冲断层建模的非均质断层数值模拟对地震和地震滑移的控制。与俯冲巨型逆冲断层一致,我们的研究将集中在不对称断层上,其中应力和强度沿断层长度变化。我们将使用这些模拟来开发 2D 和 3D 滑动事件目录,然后探测事件发生之前、期间和之后沿断层的状况,以深入了解引发不稳定滑动的条件以及导致失控滑动停止的条件。我们计划解决的首要问题是:(1)什么控制地震的规模?地震规模是预先确定的吗?如果是的话,是由什么决定的? (2)是否存在任何一致的前兆现象(例如变形)或性质变化可以告诉我们地震滑动的发生?为了解决这些问题,我们将探究模型数据,包括粒子位移、力、堆积排列等,以获得对应力和应变及其在空间和时间上的变化的直接约束,以及不断变化的机械性能,例如摩擦、剪胀、强度和刚度。通过这种方式,我们可以探索对地震破裂和其他滑移行为的具体控制。我们还将与上面列出的属性变化相关的模拟地震目录与自然系统进行比较。我们的模型将有助于阐明导致不同类型地震的断层特征,以及引发和限制地震的过程,从而提高我们在这一领域的知识。该项目将支持一名研究生和一名本科生,并在莱斯大学正式建立跨学科合作。我们将在国内和国际会议上发布并展示我们的结果。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(7)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Effects of coseismic megasplay fault activity on earthquake hazards: Insights from discrete element simulations
同震巨型扇断层活动对地震灾害的影响:离散元模拟的见解
- DOI:10.1016/j.jsg.2022.104533
- 发表时间:2022
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.1
- 作者:Wang, Xiaoyu;Morgan, Julia
- 通讯作者:Morgan, Julia
Precursory Stress Changes and Fault Dilation Lead to Fault Rupture: Insights From Discrete Element Simulations
- DOI:10.1029/2018gl081007
- 发表时间:2019-03
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.2
- 作者:D. Blank;J. Morgan
- 通讯作者:D. Blank;J. Morgan
Relationships Among Forearc Structure, Fault Slip, and Earthquake Magnitude: Numerical Simulations With Applications to the Central Chilean Margin
弧前结构、断层滑动和地震震级之间的关系:数值模拟及其在智利中部边缘的应用
- DOI:10.1029/2021gl092521
- 发表时间:2021
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.2
- 作者:Wang, Xiaoyu;Morgan, Julia;Bangs, Nathan
- 通讯作者:Bangs, Nathan
Controls on Fore‐Arc Deformation and Stress Switching After the Great 2011 Tohoku‐Oki Earthquake From Discrete Numerical Simulations
2011 年东北大地震后前弧变形和应力切换的离散数值模拟控制
- DOI:10.1029/2019jb017420
- 发表时间:2019
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Wang, Xiaoyu;Morgan, Julia K.
- 通讯作者:Morgan, Julia K.
Can Deep Learning Predict Complete Ruptures in Numerical Megathrust Faults?
- DOI:10.1029/2021gl092607
- 发表时间:2021-09-28
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.2
- 作者:Blank, David;Morgan, Julia
- 通讯作者:Morgan, Julia
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Julia Morgan其他文献
How do parents perceive and utilize knowledge of their infant’s mental health? A systematic review
父母如何看待和利用婴儿心理健康知识?
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2018 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:1.9
- 作者:
J. Peters;Heather Skirton;Julia Morgan;M. Clark - 通讯作者:
M. Clark
Stigma, Outsider Status and Mothers in Prison
耻辱、局外人身份和狱中母亲
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2023 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:1.7
- 作者:
Julia Morgan;C. Leeson - 通讯作者:
C. Leeson
Progressive Pulmonary Obstruction and Hypoxia Following Recovery From Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis
- DOI:
10.1378/chest.1385756 - 发表时间:
2012-10-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
William Porr;Julia Morgan - 通讯作者:
Julia Morgan
Exploring women’s experiences of diagnosis of ADHD in adulthood: a qualitative study
探索女性成年后诊断多动症的经历:一项定性研究
- DOI:
10.1080/18387357.2023.2268756 - 发表时间:
2023 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:1.4
- 作者:
Julia Morgan - 通讯作者:
Julia Morgan
Effects of Socioeconomic Status on Glycemic Control in Children and Young Adults with Type 1 Diabetes
社会经济状况对 1 型糖尿病儿童和年轻人血糖控制的影响
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2022 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
J. Morgan;Julia Morgan - 通讯作者:
Julia Morgan
Julia Morgan的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Julia Morgan', 18)}}的其他基金
RAPID: COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: OBS survey of Kilauea's submarine south flank following the May 4, 2018 M6.9 earthquake and Lower East Rift Zone eruption
快速:协作研究:2018 年 5 月 4 日 M6.9 地震和下东裂谷带喷发后,OBS 对基拉韦厄海底南侧进行的调查
- 批准号:
1841020 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Support for 8 Gordon Research Conference and Gordon Research Seminar on Rock Deformation
支持第八届戈登岩石变形研究会议和戈登研究研讨会
- 批准号:
1824129 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Support for 2016 Gordon Research Conference and Gordon Research Seminar on Rock Deformation
支持2016戈登岩石变形研究会议及戈登研究研讨会
- 批准号:
1620010 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Discrete Element Simulations of Cohesive Contractional Wedges: Kinematics and Mechanics of Fold and Thrust Belts
粘性收缩楔的离散元模拟:折叠带和推力带的运动学和力学
- 批准号:
1145263 - 财政年份:2012
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Bringing NSF MARGINS/GeoPRISMS Continental Margins Research into the Undergraduate Curriculum
合作研究:将 NSF MARGINS/GeoPRISMS 大陆边缘研究纳入本科课程
- 批准号:
1141056 - 财政年份:2012
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Geologic, Tectonic, and Geodynamic Processes of the Eastern North American (ENAM) Passive Margin Workshop
合作研究:北美东部 (ENAM) 被动边缘研讨会的地质、构造和地球动力学过程
- 批准号:
1137368 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
GeoPRISMS Office Support - Building Beyond MARGINS
GeoPRISMS Office 支持 - 超越利润
- 批准号:
1046795 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Numerical Constraints on the Causes and Processes of Submarine Slope Failure along Active, Passive, and Volcanic Margins
主动、被动和火山边缘海底斜坡破坏原因和过程的数值约束
- 批准号:
0851525 - 财政年份:2009
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Three-Dimensional Distinct Element Simulations of Dynamic Process of Fault Gouge Evolution
断层泥演化动态过程三维离散元模拟
- 批准号:
0711558 - 财政年份:2007
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Geophysically Constrained Dynamic Models of Volcanotectonics: Integrating 3-D Seismic Tomography, Gravity, and Particle Dynamics Simulations of Hawaiian Volcanoes
火山构造的地球物理约束动力学模型:集成夏威夷火山的 3D 地震层析成像、重力和粒子动力学模拟
- 批准号:
0551750 - 财政年份:2006
- 资助金额:
$ 20.58万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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