Dynamic Risk Perception and Action in Response to Forest Insect Disturbance in North-Central Colorado

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This study builds upon research conducted in 2006-2007 in north-central Colorado, a region in which the forests have been devastated by a massive mountain pine beetle (MPB) infestation that has affected more than 3.4 million acres. While it is well established the environmental conditions change over time, research that examines how risk perceptions and risk mitigating actions may evolve in relation to changing environmental conditions is lacking. Communities dependent on natural resources are especially sensitive to environmental changes, particularly when such changes increase hazard vulnerability and adversely affect livelihoods and recreation. In analyzing risk perception and response to forest disturbance by MPB, the original study found notable variation across communities, and that residents with higher levels of perceived disturbance and community interaction were more likely to participate in local actions in response to the MPB outbreak. The current study builds on the previous work by revisiting the original study communities and focusing on the temporal dimension of local responses. More specifically, it examines the relationships between forest risk perception and various aspects of local human?nature interactions including one?s sense of place, environmental values, perceptions of disturbance intensity, experience with relevant emergencies, and satisfaction with key actors tasked with managing forest resources. As such, this study explores the dynamic relationships between hazard experience, risk perception, and related actions that may shape future vulnerabilities and adaptations of natural resource-dependent communities.Environmental risk perception and risk-related behavior constitute an important topical area in both disaster risk reduction and vulnerability to environmental/climate change studies. Despite the inherent dynamic nature of risk events, the temporal dimension of risk perception has been understudied in existing risk analysis. Natural resource-based communities provide a key backdrop for analyzing dynamic risk perceptions and decisions in changing social-ecological systems. Responding to the need for more longitudinal studies in risk research, this study examines the dynamic risk perception and action in response to forest disturbance by mountain pine beetles (MPB) in north-central Colorado. Empirical research based on data collected in 2006-2007 on local responses to the MPB outbreak is replicated and expanded for nine original study communities (Breckenridge, Dillon, Frisco, Granby, Kremmling, Silverthorne, Steamboat Springs, Vail, and Walden). The study adopts a mixed methods design combining secondary socioeconomic and biophysical data, media analysis, key informant interviews, and mail surveys. Four main research objectives guide this project: (1) to conceptualize the role of dynamic human-nature relationship experience in framing risk perception over time using an experience-based approach; (2) to assess temporal changes (and their spatial variations) in hazard experience, risk perception, and beetle-related activeness of local residents; (3) to analyze key factors influencing changes in perceived forest risks; and (4) to explore the dynamic relationship between risk perception and action in response to the MPB outbreak. Research findings can contribute to increased local public awareness of the MPB outbreak and community members' engagement with science and forest management. The project culminates with a participatory process using community forums to articulate lessons learned from community experience with forest insect disturbance over time.