Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic-Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction

随着海冰的迅速融化，北极不仅在科学上变得越来越重要，而且在社会经济和地缘政治上也变得越来越重要。早期的努力表明，有可能在从亚季节到十年的时间尺度上预测北极的变化。然而，要对北极天气和气候进行熟练的业务预报，就需要我们在理解气候和北极与低纬度地区之间的气候和极端天气之间的联系以及随后如何最好地在预报系统中表示相关机制方面取得重大进展。虽然低纬海洋和大气的变化不可避免地影响到北极，但这种相互作用确实是双向的，因为北极的变化也影响到低纬气候和天气，特别是中纬度极端天气事件。为了提高我们的基本动力学理解、建模能力和预测技能，结合现有的观测和最先进的气候模型，该团队建议调查热带和中纬度海洋和大气对北极区域变化的驱动因素。他们还将调查北极对北半球气候变异性和极端天气的影响。该小组将参加欧洲联盟(欧盟)牵头的国际多模式相互比较研究，即欧盟地平线2020方案下的蓝色行动项目。加深对北极-低纬联系的了解，以及我们预测北极和北半球变化的能力，与各种最终用户应用程序相关，例如天气预报、渔业管理、商业航运、商业保险和海军行动。因此，该项目具有相当广泛的影响。项目团队还将积极开展外展活动，通过网页、公开讲座、K-12学校访问、教师培训和本科生研究经验(REU)计划，传播研究成果并教育公众。一名博士后科学家也将在该项目下接受培训。

With the rapidly melting sea-ice, the Arctic is becoming increasingly important not only scientifically but also socioeconomically and geopolitically. Early efforts indicate that there is potential to predict Arctic variability on timescales ranging from subseasonal to decadal. However, skillful operational predictions of the Arctic weather and climate require major advances in our understanding of linkages in climate and weather extremes between the Arctic and lower-latitudes, and subsequently, how best to represent relevant mechanisms in prediction systems. While the changes in the lower-latitude ocean and atmosphere inevitably influence the Arctic, the interaction is truly two-way, in that changes in the Arctic also impact the lower-latitude climate and weather, in particular midlatitude extreme weather events. To improve our fundamental dynamical understanding, modeling capabilities, and prediction skill, using a combination of available observations and state-of-the-art climate models, the team proposes to investigate tropical and mid-latitude oceanic and atmospheric drivers of regional Arctic changes. They will also investigate the role of the Arctic on the Northern Hemisphere climate variability and weather extremes. The team will participate in the European Union (EU)-led international multi-model inter-comparison study, the Blue-Action Project under the EU Horizon 2020 Programme. A deeper understanding of Arctic-lower-latitude linkages, and our capacity for predicting Arctic and Northern Hemisphere variability is relevant to a wide variety of end-user applications, such as weather forecasting, fisheries management, commercial shipping, commercial insurance, and naval operations. Thus, this project has substantial broader impacts. The project team will also actively perform outreach activities to disseminate findings and to educate public through webpages, public lectures, K-12 school visits, teacher trainings, and Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) programs. A postdoctoral scientist will also be trained under this project.