Collaborative Research EaSM2: Mechanisms, Predictability, Prediction, and Regional and Societal Impacts of Decadal Climate Variability

智力价值致命的十年气候预测有可能提供巨大的社会、经济和环境价值。然而，这种努力还处于初级阶段，存在许多艰巨的科学和技术挑战。十年预报是一个初值和边值相结合的问题，其中预报能力必须很大程度上来自气候系统的内在可变性。在该项目中，通过跨学科协作，研究人员寻求：1)在共同体地球系统模式框架内建立一个改进的、可靠的十年预测系统，包括对海洋生态系统和生物地球化学成分的预测能力；2)推动在区域和社会影响研究中使用十年预测模拟。实现这些目标和开发一个有充分依据的十年预测系统，将有赖于在四个基本领域提高认识和技术能力。因此，这项研究的目的是：(1)增进对内在十年变率和机制的了解；(2)评估当前预报模式的内在可预测性限制；(3)评估实用的预报系统设计方法；(4)将完全耦合的数据同化以及海洋生态系统和生物地球化学纳入NCAR十年十年预报系统的生成能力。根据这些目标开发的洞察力、知识和能力随后将用于建立用于进行多十年预测的建模和初始化策略。将利用这些十年预测实验的成果进行区域和社会影响研究，通过追求和整合多个相关学科的研究进展和见解来推进十年预测科学：气候动力学、可预测性、低和高分辨率耦合气候模型、数据同化、生物地球化学和生态系统模型、区域天气预报、种群动态和鱼类栖息地。最终结果将是更好地理解十年预报的局限性和实际潜力，有充分依据的建模和初始化战略进行预测，以及为社会利益缩小和解释物理气候预报的先进能力。广泛影响本项目将在CESM框架内产生一个有充分依据的十年预报系统，其中包括DART(数据同化研究试验床)和WRF(天气研究和预报模式)。预测系统、增强的建模能力以及我们模拟的结果和数据将通过CESM和DART社区的定期发布以及项目网页提供给更广泛的研究社区。这些发展将成为重要的社区资源。这一研究项目的整体目的是在社会相关的背景下研究十年气候变异性。具体地说，将审查预测的年代际变化对冬季风暴事件、夏季热浪、海洋生态系统和生物地球化学、人口和渔业物种范围的影响，重点放在北美及其周边地区。包括博士后在内的早期职业科学家将进行大部分拟议的工作，所有合作机构都致力于指导活动，以确保成功。此外，两项博士研究将包括这项提案中的工作。最后，在NCAR，项目团队将在UCAR Soars(大气研究和科学的重要机会；www.soars.ucar.edu)项目中招待一名年度学生，为未来的科学劳动力培养一个多样化的社区。

Intellectual MeritSkillful decadal climate predictions have the potential to provide enormous social, economic, and environmental value. Such efforts, however, are in their infancy and many formidable scientific and technical challenges exist. Decadal prediction represents a combined initial value and boundary value problem in which prediction capabilities must be largely derived from the intrinsic variability of the climate system. In this project, through an interdisciplinary collaboration, the investigators seek i) to produce an improved and reliable decadal prediction system within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework, including predictive capabilities for marine ecosystems and biogeochemical constituents and ii) to advance the use of decadal prediction simulations in regional and societal impact studies. Attainment of these goals and developing a well-founded decadal prediction system will rely on improved understanding and technical capabilities in four fundamental areas. Thus, the research aims at (1) improving the understanding of intrinsic decadal variability and mechanisms; (2) evaluating the inherent predictability constraints of the current forecast model; (3) evaluating practical forecast system design methods; and (4) generating capabilities for incorporating fully-coupled data assimilation and ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry into the NCAR decadal prediction system. The insights, knowledge, and capabilities developed from these objectives will then be used to establish a modeling and initialization strategy for making multi-decadal predictions. Regional and societal impact studies using the output from these decadal prediction experiments will be performed to advance the science of decadal prediction by pursuing and integrating research developments and insights across multiple relevant disciplines: climate dynamics, predictability, low- and high-resolution coupled climate modeling, data assimilation, biogeochemical and ecosystem modeling, regional weather forecasting, population dynamics, and fish habitats. The end result will be improved understanding of the limits and practical potential of decadal prediction, well-founded modeling and initialization strategies for making predictions, and advanced capabilities for downscaling and interpreting physical climate predictions for societal benefits.Broader ImpactsThis project will produce a well-founded decadal prediction system within the CESM framework that incorporates DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model). The prediction system, enhanced modeling capabilities, and results and data from our simulations will be made available to the broader research community via regular CESM and DART community releases as well as project web pages. These developments will serve as important community resources. This research project in its entirety is aimed at studying decadal climate variability in a socially relevant context. Specifically, the impacts of predicted decadal changes on winter storm events, summer heat waves, ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry, human population, and fisheries' species ranges will be examined with a focus on North America and surrounding areas. Early career scientists, including a postdoc, will conduct much of the proposed work, and all the partnering institutions are are committed to mentoring activities to ensure success. In addition, two Ph. D. studies will include work from this proposal. Finally, at NCAR, the project team will host an annual student in the UCAR SOARS (Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science; www.soars.ucar.edu) program to entrain a diverse community for the scientific workforce of the future.