Collaborative Research EaSM2: Mechanisms, Predictability, Prediction, and Regional and Societal Impacts of Decadal Climate Variability

巧妙的年代际气候预测有可能提供巨大的社会、经济和环境价值。然而，这些努力还处于起步阶段，存在着许多艰巨的科学和技术挑战。年代际预测是一个初始值和边值问题的组合，其中预测能力必须在很大程度上来自气候系统的内在变率。在这个项目中，通过跨学科合作，研究人员寻求i)在社区地球系统模型（CESM）框架内建立一个改进的、可靠的年代际预测系统，包括海洋生态系统和生物地球化学成分的预测能力；ii)在区域和社会影响研究中推进年代际预测模拟的使用。实现这些目标和发展一个有充分根据的年代际预测系统将依赖于提高对四个基本领域的了解和技术能力。因此，研究的目标是：(1)提高对内在年代际变率及其机制的认识；(2)评估当前预测模式的内在可预测性约束；(3)评价实用的预测系统设计方法；(4)形成将完全耦合的数据同化、海洋生态系统和生物地球化学纳入NCAR年代际预测系统的能力。从这些目标中获得的见解、知识和能力将用于建立建模和初始化策略，以进行多年预测。利用这些年代际预测实验的结果进行区域和社会影响研究，将通过追求和整合多个相关学科的研究进展和见解来推进年代际预测科学：气候动力学、可预测性、低分辨率和高分辨率耦合气候模型、数据同化、生物地球化学和生态系统模型、区域天气预报、种群动态和鱼类栖息地。最终的结果将是提高对年代代期预测的局限性和实际潜力的理解，建立良好的预测建模和初始化策略，以及为社会效益缩小尺度和解释物理气候预测的先进能力。更广泛的影响该项目将在CESM框架内建立一个基础良好的年代际预测系统，该系统包括DART（数据同化研究试验台）和WRF（天气研究和预报模型）。预测系统，增强的建模能力，以及我们模拟的结果和数据将通过常规CESM和DART社区发布以及项目网页向更广泛的研究社区提供。这些发展将成为重要的社区资源。整个研究项目的目的是在与社会相关的背景下研究年代际气候变率。具体而言，预测的年代际变化对冬季风暴事件、夏季热浪、海洋生态系统和生物地球化学、人口和渔业物种范围的影响将以北美及其周边地区为重点进行研究。包括一名博士后在内的早期职业科学家将进行大部分拟议的工作，所有的合作机构都致力于指导活动，以确保成功。此外，两项博士研究将包括本提案的工作。最后，在NCAR，项目团队将在UCAR SOARS（大气研究和科学的重要机会；www.soars.ucar.edu）计划中每年接待一名学生，为未来的科学劳动力培养多元化的社区。

Intellectual MeritSkillful decadal climate predictions have the potential to provide enormous social, economic, and environmental value. Such efforts, however, are in their infancy and many formidable scientific and technical challenges exist. Decadal prediction represents a combined initial value and boundary value problem in which prediction capabilities must be largely derived from the intrinsic variability of the climate system. In this project, through an interdisciplinary collaboration, the investigators seek i) to produce an improved and reliable decadal prediction system within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework, including predictive capabilities for marine ecosystems and biogeochemical constituents and ii) to advance the use of decadal prediction simulations in regional and societal impact studies. Attainment of these goals and developing a well-founded decadal prediction system will rely on improved understanding and technical capabilities in four fundamental areas. Thus, the research aims at (1) improving the understanding of intrinsic decadal variability and mechanisms; (2) evaluating the inherent predictability constraints of the current forecast model; (3) evaluating practical forecast system design methods; and (4) generating capabilities for incorporating fully-coupled data assimilation and ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry into the NCAR decadal prediction system. The insights, knowledge, and capabilities developed from these objectives will then be used to establish a modeling and initialization strategy for making multi-decadal predictions. Regional and societal impact studies using the output from these decadal prediction experiments will be performed to advance the science of decadal prediction by pursuing and integrating research developments and insights across multiple relevant disciplines: climate dynamics, predictability, low- and high-resolution coupled climate modeling, data assimilation, biogeochemical and ecosystem modeling, regional weather forecasting, population dynamics, and fish habitats. The end result will be improved understanding of the limits and practical potential of decadal prediction, well-founded modeling and initialization strategies for making predictions, and advanced capabilities for downscaling and interpreting physical climate predictions for societal benefits.Broader ImpactsThis project will produce a well-founded decadal prediction system within the CESM framework that incorporates DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model). The prediction system, enhanced modeling capabilities, and results and data from our simulations will be made available to the broader research community via regular CESM and DART community releases as well as project web pages. These developments will serve as important community resources. This research project in its entirety is aimed at studying decadal climate variability in a socially relevant context. Specifically, the impacts of predicted decadal changes on winter storm events, summer heat waves, ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry, human population, and fisheries' species ranges will be examined with a focus on North America and surrounding areas. Early career scientists, including a postdoc, will conduct much of the proposed work, and all the partnering institutions are are committed to mentoring activities to ensure success. In addition, two Ph. D. studies will include work from this proposal. Finally, at NCAR, the project team will host an annual student in the UCAR SOARS (Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science; www.soars.ucar.edu) program to entrain a diverse community for the scientific workforce of the future.