PREEVENTS Track 1: Fire Prediction Across Scales Conference at Columbia University

火是一种自然的生态过程，是一种土地利用工具，是一种破坏性力量，是向大气排放痕量气体和气溶胶的重要来源。火灾活动和行为的真实模型对于业务火灾管理以及了解火灾活动的过去和未来的变化是必要的。然而，开发这种模型需要考虑植被覆盖、土地利用做法、火灾管理能力、极端天气和气候变化，这些因素代表了广泛的时间和空间尺度。这次会议将提供一个论坛，让研究人员在这些范围内进行交流。其目的是总结火灾模拟和预测的最新进展，确定在未来10年中可以取得重大进展的领域，并将研究人员与火灾管理实践者联系起来。期望为决策者提供了解如何准确预测火灾，以保护生命财产和维护健康的生态系统的目的，目前和未来。就本次会议而言，决策者的范围从需要预测一场野火的行为的消防运营经理，到需要了解可能的烟雾影响的卫生专业人员，到试图了解应该发生多少火灾的政策级规划者。这次会议的广泛影响将是为这些利益攸关方建立一个基线，以了解目前如何能够对火灾活动及其后果进行定量模拟，以及如何在未来10年改进这一点。

Fire is a natural ecological process, a land use tool, a destructive force, and an important source of trace gas and aerosol emissions to the atmosphere. Realistic models of fire activity and behavior are necessary for operational fire management, and to understand past and future changes in fire activity. Developing such models, however, requires taking into account vegetation cover, land use practices, fire management capacity, extreme weather, and climate variability, which represent a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. This meeting will provide a forum for researchers working across these scales to interact. The objectives are to summarize the state of the art in fire modeling and prediction, identify areas where significant progress can be made in the next 10 years, and to connect researchers with fire management practitioners.The expectation is that decision makers will be provided with an understanding of how well fire can be predicted for the purposes of protecting life and property and maintaining healthy ecosystems, at present and in the future. For the purposes of this conference, decision makers range from operational fire managers needing to predict the behavior of a single wildfire, to health professionals needing to understand possible smoke impacts, to policy-level planners trying to understand how much fire there should be on the landscape. The broad impact of this conference will be to establish a baseline for these stakeholders to understand how well fire activity and its consequences can currently be quantitatively simulated and how this can be improved in the next 10 years.