PREEVENTS Track 1: Fire Prediction Across Scales Conference at Columbia University

火灾是一种自然生态过程，是土地利用的工具，是一种破坏性力量，也是向大气排放微量气体和气溶胶的重要来源。火灾活动和行为的现实模型是必要的业务火灾管理，并了解过去和未来的变化，火灾活动。然而，开发这种模型需要考虑植被覆盖、土地使用做法、火灾管理能力、极端天气和气候变异性，这些因素代表了广泛的时间和空间尺度。本次会议将为跨这些尺度进行互动的研究人员提供一个论坛。目标是总结火灾建模和预测的最新技术，确定未来10年可以取得重大进展的领域，并将研究人员与火灾管理从业人员联系起来。期望决策者能够了解如何预测火灾，以保护生命和财产，维护健康的生态系统。在现在和将来。为了这次会议的目的，决策者的范围从需要预测单个野火行为的业务火灾管理人员，到需要了解可能的烟雾影响的卫生专业人员，再到试图了解景观上应该有多少火灾的政策级规划人员。本次会议的广泛影响将是为这些利益相关者建立一个基线，以了解目前火灾活动及其后果的定量模拟情况，以及如何在未来10年内加以改进。

Fire is a natural ecological process, a land use tool, a destructive force, and an important source of trace gas and aerosol emissions to the atmosphere. Realistic models of fire activity and behavior are necessary for operational fire management, and to understand past and future changes in fire activity. Developing such models, however, requires taking into account vegetation cover, land use practices, fire management capacity, extreme weather, and climate variability, which represent a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. This meeting will provide a forum for researchers working across these scales to interact. The objectives are to summarize the state of the art in fire modeling and prediction, identify areas where significant progress can be made in the next 10 years, and to connect researchers with fire management practitioners.The expectation is that decision makers will be provided with an understanding of how well fire can be predicted for the purposes of protecting life and property and maintaining healthy ecosystems, at present and in the future. For the purposes of this conference, decision makers range from operational fire managers needing to predict the behavior of a single wildfire, to health professionals needing to understand possible smoke impacts, to policy-level planners trying to understand how much fire there should be on the landscape. The broad impact of this conference will be to establish a baseline for these stakeholders to understand how well fire activity and its consequences can currently be quantitatively simulated and how this can be improved in the next 10 years.