CAREER: A change in the forecast: Ocean biogeochemistry over the next decade

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The pressing need for societally-relevant information about the physical climate system in the near future (the coming years to decades) has generated extensive research in the field of decadal climate prediction. Recent work highlights the ability of climate models to predict such things as regional surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic sea ice extent, and ocean heat content with several years lead time; such predictions are of great use to those who manage infrastructure and resources. The use of models for predictions of regional changes in ocean chemistry and biology on these timescales is much less common but could also be very useful to managers, policy makers, and the scientific enterprise. In this CAREER award, the investigator will use a model to make regional predictions of changes in ocean chemistry and biology on one- to ten-year timescales; these predictions will be tested against real-world observations to assess and understand the skill of the predictions. The major educational goal of this project is to prepare undergraduate students from underrepresented groups for graduate study in the field of oceanography. This will be achieved by partnering with the Summer Multicultural Access to Research Training (SMART) program to provide five undergraduate students with transformative learning and mentoring experiences that will expand their pathways to competitive graduate programs. The SMART program has well-established recruiting strategies and assessment protocols and has achieved tremendous success in reducing the disparities between majority and minority PhD recipients in STEM fields. It is anticipated that this project will give rise to increased numbers of underrepresented students achieving doctoral degrees in chemical and physical oceanography. The PI is strongly committed to moving diverse undergraduate STEM students forward into graduate programs by providing genuine research experiences and mentorship to these students and has a history of successful student placement into graduate programs. The project leader is strongly committed to moving diverse undergraduate STEM students forward into graduate programs by providing genuine research experiences and mentorship to these students and has a history of successful student placement into graduate programs. The project will also support the education and training of a graduate student and postdoctoral researcher. The project team proposes to analyze ocean biogeochemistry predictions using output from an Earth System Model with fully resolved ocean biogeochemistry and observations from satellite, hydrographic, and autonomous platforms. From annual to decadal timescales, the team will quantify predictability and predictive skill in key ocean biogeochemical parameters, including surface ocean pH, partial pressure and air-sea flux of carbon dioxide, and upper-ocean aragonite saturation state, net primary production, and oxygen concentration. The model-based predictability study will probe the limits of skillful ocean biogeochemical prediction and investigate the mechanisms involved. Detailed analysis of sustained ocean biogeochemical events in the recent past will inform understanding of their predictability in the coming decade.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.