Collaborative Research: P2C2--Paleo-Perspectives of Streamflow Variability for Southeastern Interstate Rivers

该项目致力于改善南大西洋海湾盆地(AGB)和美国东南部(SE)过去和未来水文变异性的古气候记录和更广泛的科学理解，实施一项为期三年的研究计划，以调查该地区的仪器前径流和相关的气候变异性。该研究计划的主要目标是开发定量的、多世纪的树木年轮重建，并评估东南部和AGB未来径流的风险。该项目的具体目标是：1)开发8条主要的沿海州际河流的径流重建；2)进行流域间比较，以确定整个区域共同和不同的径流变化的空间和时间模式；3)对气候变化的动态模式(如厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、北大西洋副热带高压和大西洋年代际振荡)如何迫使气候变化、水文变化、极端干旱和暴雨事件以及过去500-1000年间潜在的制度变化的区域表达提供新的见解；4)描述这些分水岭未来径流和极端事件的风险。这项研究不仅将提供对径流的长期变化的洞察，还将揭示这种变化对AGB和美国东南部沿海流域的相关物理、社会、经济和生态影响。提高对径流变异性的理解将直接有利于东南部水政策的发展，通过告知与取水、径流预报、干旱和洪水缓解有关的各种社会和经济相关地区。最近在苏万尼河(佛罗里达州)的工作提供了一个成功的例子，如何通过高方差解释(R2=0.68)和稳健的验证统计(RE，0.71；除了对过去的水气候控制提供了新的见解外，还提供了对AGB和SE未来径流风险的特征和管理的新见解。潜在的更广泛的影响包括有可能加强对水文气候变异性(特别是极低流量事件)的历史以及驱动径流变异性的区域和大规模气候强迫机制的作用的了解。该项目力求为南大西洋海湾盆地(AGB)和美国东南部地区的极端水文应用风险管理提供有用的信息。了解过去事件的时间和规模，并对未来进行准确的预测，对于公共和私营利益攸关方为未来做好准备并提高复原力至关重要。此外，通过表征AGB和SE流域过去、现在和未来的径流和极端事件的风险，这项研究将促进关于如何保护和维持现在和未来河岸地带、沿海流域和周围土地的知识。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project seeks to improve the paleoclimate record and the broader scientific understanding of past and future hydrologic variability in the South Atlantic Gulf Basin (AGB) and Southeastern (SE) United States by carrying out a three-year research program to investigate pre-instrumental streamflow and associated climate variability in this region. The principle goals of the research program are to develop quantitative, multi-century, tree-ring reconstructions and to assess the risk of future streamflow in the SE and AGB. The specific aims of this project are to 1) develop streamflow reconstructions for eight major, coastal, interstate rivers; 2) conduct inter-basin comparisons to identify spatial and temporal patterns of common and disparate streamflow variability across the region; 3) provide novel insights on how the dynamical modes of climate variability (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Sub-tropical High, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) force regional expressions of climate change, hydrological variability, extreme drought and pluvial events, and potential regime shifts over the past 500-1,000 years and 4) characterize the risk of future streamflow and extreme events in these watersheds.This research will provide insight into not only the long-term variability of streamflow, but will also shed light on the associated physical, social, economic and ecological impacts this variability has on coastal watersheds in the AGB and SE US. Improved understanding of streamflow variability will directly benefit the development of water policy in SE, by informing a variety of socially and economically relevant areas related to water withdrawals, streamflow forecasts, drought and flood mitigation.Recent work on the Suwannee River (Florida) provides a successful example of how streamflow in the Southeast can be reconstructed over multiple centuries with high variance explained (R2=0.68) and robust validation statistics (RE, 0.71; CE, 0.81), in addition to providing novel insight into the controls of past hydroclimate to characterize and manage the risk of future streamflow in the AGB and SE.The potential Broader Impacts include the potential for enhanced understanding of both the history of hydroclimate variability (especially extreme low flow events) and the role of regional and large-scale climate forcing mechanisms that drive streamflow variability. This project seeks to provide information useful for applied risk management around hydrologic extremes in the South Atlantic Gulf Basin (AGB) and Southeastern (SE) United States region. Understanding the timing and magnitude of past events and having accurate future forecasting is crucial for public and private stakeholders to prepare for the future and increase resiliency. In addition, by characterizing past, present and future streamflow and the risk of extreme events in the AGB and SE watersheds, this research will advance knowledge of how to protect and sustain riparian zones, coastal watersheds and surrounding lands now and into the future.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.