Collaborative Research: P2C2: Reconstructing Northeast Mexico Hydroclimate since the Last Interglacial Period

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The majority of climate models show enhanced aridity throughout Mexico as a result of climatic warming. However, instrumental data, existing paleoclimate proxy records, and climate model simulations demonstrate that precipitation in the region exhibits substantial interannual to decadal scale variability in response to naturally recurring internal climate modes. A more complete understanding of the impacts of natural variability and forced anthropogenic climate change on water resources in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. is important given the potentially serious impacts of increased drought frequency and magnitude on economic, agricultural, and public water supply issues.Development of hydroclimate records from low latitude regions is of critical importance for assessing the response of regional climate to external forcing and internal modes of climate variability, for investigating teleconnections between the tropics and high-latitude regions, and for evaluating climate models. This work will address several key questions about the climate system, including: (1) Does NE Mexican hydroclimate vary in phase with Northern Hemisphere Summer Insolation? (2) Did abrupt decreases in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength during Heinrich Events lead to dry conditions in NE Mexico? (3) Do patterns of decadal to multidecadal scale rainfall variability track Atlantic and/or Pacific sea surface temperatures?This project includes a potential for greater understanding of hydroclimate using cave deposits. The project will also contribute to the scientific training and professional development of graduate students, including one Mexican-American female, and multiple undergraduate students. The lead investigator is a Native American female and for the past six years has directed the American Indian Summer Institute in Earth System Science, a two-week residential program for Indigenous high school students. The researchers and students will incorporate aspects of this research into existing outreach efforts, including graduate school outreach at the annual Society for Advancement of Chicanos/Hispanics and Native Americans in Science (SACNAS) and American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES) conferences, climate science lessons at local classrooms, and presentations at the Cambridge Science Festival.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.