Bias in the historical introduction of horticultural plants and its consequences for current naturalization patterns

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Current invasion patterns might be largely determined by species introduced earlier and in larger numbers (i.e. by introduction history), but detailed studies of introduction bias (i.e. which kinds of species were introduced earlier and more frequently) are rare. Therefore, I propose to use unique - though underutilized - data on historical introductions of ornamental plants and data on planting frequencies in Europe in combination with data on species characteristics and naturalization success. We will use these data first to test for introduction bias by assessing which characteristics are associated with species that were introduced earlier and more frequently than others. Then we will use path analysis and structural equation modeling to test how introduction history and bias determine which alien species have become naturalized. This will allow us for the first time to disentangle and quantify different direct and indirect causal factors of naturalization success.