PREEVENTS Track 1: A transdisciplinary approach to next-gen natural hazard modeling: Improving accuracy and usability of earth surface process models for pre-event risk assessment

事件预防轨道 1：下一代自然灾害建模的跨学科方法：提高事件前风险评估的地球表面过程模型的准确性和可用性

• 批准号: 1817295
• 负责人: Albert Kettner
• 金额: $ 4.98万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-02-15 至 2019-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1817295&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PREEVENTS; Track; transdisciplinary; approach; next

Natural hazards impact thousands of people every year; floods, droughts, extreme storms, landslides, wildfires, and permafrost erosion all change the Earth's surface and inflict tremendous damage to human infrastructure. Most often, humans respond to disasters "after the fact" and a paradigm shift is needed to a strategy of resilience that would provide a way to reduce vulnerability to disasters and their impacts before they occur. This workshop will focus disparate efforts in natural hazard modeling in the earth surface processes towards a common goal of modeling for risk assessment. A resulting white paper will provide policy makers, funding agencies, and the science community with a clear agenda and timeline on needs for improving modeling fundamentals, and needs for modeling cyberinfrastructure and model-data couplings and high performance computing capability as needed to inform natural hazard occurrence. This workshop aims at bringing in a diverse group of scientists and students across career stages to work towards the problem of natural hazard modeling. The workshop will build on the momentum of several existing modeling and data communities; Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System, EarthCube, and Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure DesignSafe. The organizers will bring together leading representatives of these initiatives for keynotes, clinics and extensive break-out discussions. Explicitly, they will aim for inclusivity by striving for gender balance in keynotes and clinic leaders, and make a dedicated effort to bring students from underrepresented groups through a Student Modeler Award competition and several diversity stipends.

自然灾害每年影响成千上万的人;洪水、干旱、极端风暴、山体滑坡、野火和永久冻土侵蚀都在改变地球表面，并对人类基础设施造成巨大破坏。人类往往在“事后”应对灾害，需要转变模式，采取抗灾战略，在灾害发生前减少对灾害及其影响的脆弱性。这次研讨会将集中在地球表面过程中的自然灾害建模的不同努力，以实现风险评估建模的共同目标。由此产生的白色文件将为政策制定者、资助机构和科学界提供一个明确的议程和时间轴，说明改进建模基础的需求，以及建模网络基础设施和模型数据耦合的需求，以及通知自然灾害发生所需的高性能计算能力。该研讨会旨在吸引不同职业阶段的科学家和学生，共同解决自然灾害建模问题。研讨会将建立在几个现有的建模和数据社区的势头;社区表面动力学建模系统，EarthCube和自然灾害工程研究基础设施DesignSafe。组织者将汇集这些倡议的主要代表，进行主题演讲，诊所和广泛的分组讨论。解释，他们将通过努力在主题演讲和诊所领导人性别平衡的包容性的目标，并作出专门的努力，使学生从代表性不足的群体通过学生建模奖比赛和几个多样性津贴。

项目成果

The Push Toward Local Flood Risk Assessment at a Global Scale

推动全球范围内的地方洪水风险评估

• DOI: 10.1029/2019eo113857
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Eos
• 作者: Kettner, Albert;Schumann, Guy;Tellman, Beth
• 通讯作者: Tellman, Beth

Can We Build Useful Models of Future Risk from Natural Hazards?

我们能否建立有用的自然灾害未来风险模型？

• DOI: 10.1029/2018eo105239
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Eos
• 作者: Kettner, Albert;Overeem, Irina;Tucker, Gregory
• 通讯作者: Tucker, Gregory