Economic Shocks, the Dispersion of Consumer Preferences and the Assessment of Price and Product Strategies

在这个项目中，我们研究了经济冲击的后果，如立法举措，对消费者偏好的分散，消费者偏好的可能变化以及随后对消费品和耐用品市场中企业的定价和品牌策略的影响。本研究的重点是建模异质性在揭示的消费者偏好，使用汇总或分类销售信息。在第二步中，我们研究了经济冲击对消费者福利的影响，以及通过市场供给侧对企业及其竞争对手盈利能力的影响。为应对经济冲击而引起的消费者估值分散变化对企业营销战略和战术（如定价和产品供应）的经济影响，需要更多地关注研究。我们的研究主题的一个例子是，一家汽车制造商改变了其产品供应，以响应政府规范的变化，即通过提供功率更小的发动机或更少的燃料消耗的汽车。一般来说，消费者不会一致地喜欢制造商的行为，制造商的行为可能会以这样一种方式影响消费者的偏好，即需求曲线不仅会向内或向外移动，而且还会旋转，因为异质消费者购买特定产品的意愿分布会发生变化。另一个例子与价格点的存在有关，这意味着接近某个阈值的价格更容易被观察到。消费者可能认为低于价格点的变化比高于或高于价格点的变化阻碍更小，这可能导致产品价格的非线性影响。因此，理解个人对价格点附近价格变化的偏好，对于解释在新的价格政策或强烈的成本冲击下（例如，作为对原材料成本急剧上升的反应）对产品的总体需求是决定性的。本研究项目的一个重要特征是，我们对市场的需求和供给应用了结构性模型，并且在对非耐用品市场或耐用品市场的总需求或非总需求进行建模时，我们考虑了消费者偏好的异质性。我们期望我们的研究结果将提高我们对消费者偏好变化与企业响应这些偏好的行为之间联系的理解。这些见解将增强我们对企业应如何应对外生诱发的变革（例如，宏观经济冲击）以及政府和立法举措应如何考虑这些反应的理解。因此，本研究的结果将是相关的监管者和管理者。

In this project, we investigate the consequences of economic shocks, such as legislative initiatives, on the dispersion of consumer preferences, possible changes in consumer preferences and the subsequent effects on the pricing and brand strategies of firms in markets of consumer goods and durable goods. This research focuses on modeling heterogeneity in revealed consumer preferences, using aggregate or disaggregate sales information. In a second step, we study the implications of economic shocks on consumer welfare and implications on the profitability of firms and their competitors via the supply side of the market. The economic consequences of changes in the dispersion of consumer valuations in response to economic shocks for firms' marketing strategies and tactics, e.g. pricing and product supply, require more attention of research. An example of our subject of study is a car manufacturer who changes its product offerings in response to changes in governmental regularizations, i.e., by offering cars with less powered engines or less fuel consumption. In general consumers will not unanimously like manufacturer's actions which may affect consumer preferences in such a way that the demand curve will not only move inwards or outwards but that it will rotate because the distribution of the willingness of heterogeneous consumers to pay for a particular product will change. Another example is related to the existence of price points, which means that prices near a certain threshold are more commonly observable. Consumers may perceive changes below the price point as less obstructive than at or above the price point which may result in non-linear effects of product prices. Therefore, the comprehension of individual preferences for changes of prices near the price points is decisive for explaining the overall demand for a product under new price politics or strong cost shocks, e.g. as a response to sharp increases in raw material costs.An important feature of this research project is that we apply structural models for demand and supply of a market and we account for heterogeneity in consumer preferences when modeling aggregate or disaggregate demand in nondurable or durable goods markets.We expect that our results will improve our understanding of the links between changes in the consumer preferences and the behavior of firms in response to these preferences. These insights will enhance our understanding of how firms should react to exogenously induced transformations (e.g., a macro-economic shock) and how government and legislative initiatives should consider these reactions. Thus, the results of this research will be relevant for regulators and managers.