RII Track-4: Predicting Beaver Colonization of the Arctic and Creation of Tundra Stream Oases

在上个世纪，北极冻土带生物群落随着气候变化而波动。野生动物，如驼鹿、雪靴兔，现在还有海狸，利用灌木丛栖息地的增加，将它们的活动范围从北方森林扩展到北极苔原。海狸池塘的淹没导致永久冻土融化，可能比气候变化本身更快地改变河流和周围的生态系统。为此目的，过去半个世纪的卫星图像将用于探测海狸池塘的形成及其对冻土带环境的后续影响。该项目还利用卫星图像绘制了海狸、驼鹿和雪鞋兔在北极苔原上的栖息地。这将与未来北极气候和苔原植被的模型相结合，以预测未来海狸的分布及其影响，以及驼鹿和雪鞋兔。Tape博士和一名博士后研究员将在北亚利桑那大学与卫星图像分析专家Scott Goetz博士和Logan Berner博士一起花六个月的时间研究这个项目。对于Tape博士来说，这是一个宝贵的机会，可以与这些科学家一起工作，并开发有用的空间分析工具来推进他的职业生涯。Tape博士和他的博士后研究员将带着新发现的专业知识回到阿拉斯加费尔班克斯大学，以支持他们的职业生涯和阿拉斯加的研究能力。从技术上讲，现有的植被、永久冻土和淡水模型预测不包括海狸，这是可以理解的，因为它们还没有被认为是北极冻土带环境的一部分。鉴于海狸对其他生态系统的深远影响，海狸的到来及其对冻土带环境的巨大改变可能标志着北极河岸和淡水生态系统轨迹的基准，而这些轨迹一直被忽视。本项目采用了一种涉及海狸池形成遥感的新方法。本研究的科学目标是：(1)利用Landsat植被指数，利用遥感技术量化已知海狸定居地点的海狸灌木生境需求；(2)结合对海狸的灌木生境要求和区域陆地卫星图像，确定阿拉斯加北坡未开垦的海狸潜在栖息地；(3)利用卫星影像评价河狸定殖对植被和地表水的影响；(4)结合已知的灌木栖息地需求和区域Landsat图像，绘制阿拉斯加北坡未来驼鹿和雪鞋兔栖息地的地图。该项目为博士后研究员和Tape博士提供了一个令人兴奋的机会，在北亚利桑那大学的同事Scott Goetz博士和Logan Berner博士的监督下，开发他们的时间序列卫星图像空间分析工具。Tape博士和他的博士后研究员将回到阿拉斯加费尔班克斯大学，提高阿拉斯加的知名度、知名度和研究能力。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Non-TechnicalThe arctic tundra biome has been fluctuating in response to climate change during the last century. Wildlife, such as moose, snowshoe hares, and now beavers, have exploited the increase in their shrub habitat by extending their range from the boreal forest into the arctic tundra. Inundation from beaver ponds causes permafrost thaw, potentially altering streams and surrounding ecosystems more rapidly than climate change alone. To this end, satellite imagery from the last half-century will be used to detect the formation of beaver ponds and their subsequent impacts to the tundra environment. This project also uses satellite imagery to map the current habitat of beavers, moose, and snowshoe hares in the arctic tundra. This will be combined with models of future arctic climate and tundra vegetation to predict the future distribution of beavers and their impacts, as well as moose and snowshoe hares. Dr. Tape and a postdoctoral researcher will spend six months working on this project at Northern Arizona University with Dr. Scott Goetz and Dr. Logan Berner, who are experts in satellite image analysis. This is a valuable opportunity for Dr. Tape to work alongside these scientists and to develop useful spatial analysis tools to advance his career. Dr. Tape and his post-doctoral researcher will return to the University of Alaska Fairbanks with newfound expertise to bolster their careers and the research capacity in Alaska. TechnicalExisting vegetation, permafrost, and freshwater model projections understandably do not include beavers, because they are not yet recognized as part of the arctic tundra environment. Given the profound impacts of beavers in other ecosystems, the arrival of beavers and their dramatic modifications to the tundra environment may signal a benchmark in the trajectory of arctic riparian and freshwater ecosystems that has gone unnoticed. This project uses a novel method involving remote sensing of beaver pond formation. The scientific goals of the proposed work are: (1) to use remote sensing to quantify beaver shrub habitat requirements at known beaver sites prior to their colonization using Landsat vegetation indices; (2) to identify potential beaver habitat across the uncolonized North Slope of Alaska by combining shrub habitat requirements for beavers and regional Landsat imagery; (3) to evaluate impacts of beaver colonization on vegetation and surface water using satellite imagery; and (4) to map future moose and snowshoe hare habitat on the North Slope of Alaska by combining known shrub habitat requirements and regional Landsat imagery. The project offers an exciting opportunity for a postdoctoral researcher and Dr. Tape to develop their tools for spatial analysis of time series satellite imagery with oversight from colleagues Dr. Scott Goetz and Dr. Logan Berner at Northern Arizona University. Dr. Tape and his postdoctoral researcher will return to the University of Alaska Fairbanks, increasing the visibility, perception, and research capacity in Alaska.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.