Multi-scale Dynamics of White-nose Syndrome in North America

在大陆尺度上预测流行病或入侵生物的传播是复杂的，因为各种过程在不同的景观上以多种尺度起作用。然而，这种预测对于管理和阻止流行病传播至关重要。该项目使用数学、计算机科学、流行病学和生态学的计算工具来了解和预测洞穴蝙蝠的一种毁灭性疾病白鼻综合征的传播，这种疾病是由土壤真菌Pseudogymnococcus destructans引起的。该项目解决两个具体问题。首先，它试图确定走廊沿着白鼻综合征可能传播和最危险的位置，使用过去传播的空间模式和一种称为网络分析的方法。将采用新的方法来加快计算速度，把计算机模型变成管理和控制方面更有用的工具。其次，影响单个洞穴的局部随机过程将与区域到大陆规模的传播过程相联系。这种多尺度联系将是第一个使用模拟建模方法，称为无方程方法，在数据有限的情况下估计流行病，在这种情况下大多数情况下。这两种方法的结合将提供一个更准确的了解如何白鼻综合征已经蔓延，以及它可能如何在未来蔓延。蝙蝠提供的经济效益在美国农业通过吃昆虫已经估计为$4-50十亿每年。该项目将为控制白鼻病的传播和由此造成的农业损失以及对蝙蝠本身的严重影响提供工具。预计该项目针对白鼻综合征开发的方法和工具也可应用于其他野生动物疾病以及人类病原体的区域和大陆传播。参与的科学家将直接向土地和自然资源管理人员和公众传达他们的实际调查结果。该项目还将通过将数学领域的技能转移到生态学和流行病学而带来教育效益。该项目还将为本科生和研究生提供令人兴奋的研究机会。

Forecasting the spread of epidemics or invasive organisms at continental scales is complicated by processes acting at multiple scales on varied landscapes. Yet such forecasts are crucial for managing and halting epidemic spread. This project uses computational tools from mathematics, computer science, epidemiology and ecology to understand and predict the spread of a devastating disease of cave-dwelling bats, white-nose syndrome, which is caused by the soil fungus, Pseudogymnoascus destructans. This project addresses two specific problems. First, it seeks to identify the corridors along which white-nose syndrome is likely to spread and the locations most at risk, using the spatial pattern of past spread and an approach called network analysis. New methods will be used that will speed up computations, turning the computer model into a more useful tool in management and control. Second, the local, random processes that affect individual caves will be linked to the process of spread at regional to continental scales. This multi-scale linkage will be the first to use a simulation modeling method, called the equation-free approach, to estimating epidemics when data are limited, which is most of the time in such circumstances. The combining of these two approaches will provide a more accurate understanding how white-nose syndrome has spread already and how it is likely to spread in the future.The economic benefit that bats provide to agriculture in the United States by eating insects has been estimated to be $4-50 billion each year. This project will contribute tools for controlling the spread of white-nose and the resulting losses to agriculture, as well as the serious impacts it has on the bats themselves. It is expected that the approaches and tools developed in this project for white-nose syndrome could also be applied to other wildlife diseases, as well as for the regional and continental spread of human pathogens. The scientists involved will communicate their practical findings directly to the land and natural resources managers and to the public. The project will also have educational benefits through the transfer of skills from the field of mathematics to ecology and epidemiology. The project will also provide exciting research opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students.