CAREER: Climate and competition interact to determine species' phenology and coexistence.

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The types of organisms found within a community are determined by the climate of an area and the presence of competitors, predators, and mutualists. Climate may also influence the timing of different yearly life events (referred to as phenology), such as when plants flower, insects emerge, and birds migrate. Because organisms may have different sensitivities to changes in temperature and rainfall, associated differences in the timing of their life events may lead to the 'reshuffling' of communities. In other words, these changes in the phenologies of organisms may lead some species to interact with new partners and lose their relationships others. This project will examine how changes in the timing of life events of plants may influence their competition with other plants, which in turn may influence the types of plants that will be found in an area. While focusing on wildflower communities in California, this project will inform our broader understanding of how plant diversity can be maintained given changing environmental conditions. This project will mentor underrepresented undergraduate students, will incorporate citizen scientists in data collection, and will train graduate students in advanced statistical methods. Although it is well documented that species vary in their phenological responses to changing climatic conditions, the causes of this variation are still poorly understood, as are the associated consequences for populations and communities. This project will examine how weather, phenology and competition interact to influence species fitness, coexistence, and the impacts of invasive species. By integrating results from a large scale distributed field experiment and a centralized local experiment (where precipitation and temperature, as well as, species diversity and densities can be manipulated), this study will test coexistence theory to understand how phenology and competition affect plant population dynamics and diversity. A partnership between citizen scientists and ecologists will extend current phenology monitoring approaches and collect demographic data for target species. Results from the field and experimental studies will be used to parameterize predictive demographic models.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.