CAREER: Climate and competition interact to determine species' phenology and coexistence.

在一个群落中发现的生物类型是由一个地区的气候以及竞争对手、捕食者和共生者的存在决定的。气候也可能影响不同的年度生命事件（称为物候学）的时间，例如植物开花、昆虫出现和鸟类迁徙的时间。由于生物可能对温度和降雨的变化具有不同的敏感性，因此它们生命事件发生时间的相关差异可能导致群落的“重组”。换句话说，生物物候的这些变化可能会导致一些物种与新的伴侣互动，而失去与其他物种的关系。该项目将研究植物生命事件时间的变化如何影响它们与其他植物的竞争，这反过来又可能影响一个地区将发现的植物类型。在关注加州野花群落的同时，该项目将使我们更广泛地了解如何在不断变化的环境条件下保持植物多样性。该项目将指导代表性不足的本科生，将让公民科学家参与数据收集，并将培训研究生掌握先进的统计方法。尽管有充分的文献表明，物种对变化的气候条件的物候反应不同，但这种变化的原因仍然知之甚少，对种群和群落的相关后果也是如此。该项目将研究天气、物候和竞争如何相互作用，影响物种的适应性、共存和入侵物种的影响。通过整合大规模分布式野外实验和集中式局部实验（可控制降水和温度以及物种多样性和密度）的结果，本研究将验证共存理论，以了解物候和竞争如何影响植物种群动态和多样性。公民科学家和生态学家之间的伙伴关系将扩展目前的物候监测方法，并收集目标物种的人口统计数据。实地和实验研究的结果将用于参数化预测人口模型。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The types of organisms found within a community are determined by the climate of an area and the presence of competitors, predators, and mutualists. Climate may also influence the timing of different yearly life events (referred to as phenology), such as when plants flower, insects emerge, and birds migrate. Because organisms may have different sensitivities to changes in temperature and rainfall, associated differences in the timing of their life events may lead to the 'reshuffling' of communities. In other words, these changes in the phenologies of organisms may lead some species to interact with new partners and lose their relationships others. This project will examine how changes in the timing of life events of plants may influence their competition with other plants, which in turn may influence the types of plants that will be found in an area. While focusing on wildflower communities in California, this project will inform our broader understanding of how plant diversity can be maintained given changing environmental conditions. This project will mentor underrepresented undergraduate students, will incorporate citizen scientists in data collection, and will train graduate students in advanced statistical methods. Although it is well documented that species vary in their phenological responses to changing climatic conditions, the causes of this variation are still poorly understood, as are the associated consequences for populations and communities. This project will examine how weather, phenology and competition interact to influence species fitness, coexistence, and the impacts of invasive species. By integrating results from a large scale distributed field experiment and a centralized local experiment (where precipitation and temperature, as well as, species diversity and densities can be manipulated), this study will test coexistence theory to understand how phenology and competition affect plant population dynamics and diversity. A partnership between citizen scientists and ecologists will extend current phenology monitoring approaches and collect demographic data for target species. Results from the field and experimental studies will be used to parameterize predictive demographic models.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.