CAREER: Ensuring Co-Sustainability of Food Production and Environmental Quality in the U.S. Midwest Agroecosystems

在过去的200年里，美国中西部从天然的草原/湿地转变为肥沃的农田，目前产量约占世界的三分之一--S玉米和大豆。人类活动通过广泛的地下“瓦片”(排水管道)和加强化肥和其他投入的使用，改变了这一景观。然而，这种转变也引发了关于环境可持续性的重要问题。在气候变化带来进一步压力的情况下，美国中西部地区能否在未来100年里继续作为全球粮食篮子？在这种情况下，如何才能同时保持粮食生产和环境质量？在美国中西部农业生态系统中，碳(例如作物生长)、水文(水量和水质)和营养循环在从田间/源头尺度到整个河流(更大的密西西比河流域)网络和大陆尺度上都紧密交织在一起。任何人类活动和实践都不只影响一个组件，而是影响一整套互连。因此，需要对复杂的反馈和相互作用进行“系统”分析，以评估美国中西部农业生态系统的潜在适应。该项目采用系统观点对美国中西部农业生态系统的“食物-水-营养耦合关系”进行整体建模和量化。这些模型将极大地促进对这些过程的理解，并预测当前和未来气候条件下的农业生态系统行为。这项研究的最终目标是深入了解美国中西部农业生态系统在不同的人类管理和气候条件下作物生长、水文和营养循环是如何相互作用的。该项目将开发陆地-河流耦合模型和模型-数据融合方法，并将实地收集的数据和遥感测量结合起来。具体地说，将通过一种新的基于生态水文过程的模型-数据融合方法，在区域尺度上以空间显式方式估计美国中西部三个关键州的瓦片排水范围和排水强度。这一排水数据集将被用来开发陆地-河流耦合网络模型(生态系统-投掷模型)，以量化这个农业生态系统中水循环、氮循环和作物生产在空间尺度上的反馈/相互作用，并评估有前途的人类管理实践的潜力，以实现美国中西部粮食生产和环境质量的共同可持续性。来自耦合生态系统-投掷模型的模拟结果预计将被政策制定者和农民社区用来评估区域范围内各种保护措施的农业生态系统状况和潜在影响。这一奖励反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The past 200 years have seen the US Midwest be transformed from natural prairie/wetlands to fertile croplands that currently produce about one third of the world?s corn and soybean. This landscape was transformed by human activities through extensive subsurface "tiling" (drainage piping) and intensified uses of fertilizer and other inputs. However, this transformation has also created important questions about environmental sustainability. With further stress from climate change, can the US Midwest remain as the global food basket for the next 100 years? How can food production and environmental quality both be sustained in this landscape? In the US Midwest agroecosystem, carbon (e.g. crop growth), hydrology (both water quantity and quality), and nutrient cycles are all closely intertwined across scales, from the field/headwater scale to the whole river (greater Mississippi river basin) network and continental scales. Any human activities and practices do not just affect one component, rather the complete set of interconnections. Thus, a "system" analysis of the complex feedbacks and interactions is required to assess potential adaptations in the US Midwest agroecosystem. This project adopts a system view to holistically model and quantify the coupled "food-water-nutrient nexus" for the US Midwest agroecosystem. These models will significantly advance the understanding of the processes and predict agroecosystem behavior under current and future climate conditions. Two promising management practices (i.e. controlled drainage, and nutrient management) to achieve co-sustainability of food production and environmental quality will be assessedThe ultimate goal of the research is to establish an advanced understanding of how crop growth, hydrology, and nutrient cycles interact under different human management and climate conditions in the setting of the US Midwest agroecosystem. The project will develop a coupled land-river model and a model-data fusion approach, and integrate field-level collected data and remote sensing measurements. Specifically, tile drainage extent and drainage strength will be estimated in a spatially explicit manner at the regional scale for the three key states in the US Midwest, by a new model-data fusion approach based on ecohydrological processes. This dataset of tile drainage will then be used to develop a coupled land-river network model (ecosys-THREW) to quantify feedbacks/interactions among the water cycle, nitrogen cycle, and crop production across spatial scales in this agroecosystem, as well as to assess the potential of promising human management practices to allow co-sustainability of food production and environment quality in the US Midwest. Simulation results from the coupled ecosys-THREW model are expected to be used by policy makers and farmer communities to assess the agroecosystem conditions and potential impacts of various conservation practices at the regional scale.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.