LEarning About Cloud modification under risk and uncertainty: Investigation of feasibility, traceability, Incentives and de-centralised governance of limited-area climate mitigation (LEAC - II)

学习风险和不确定性下的云修改：有限区域气候缓解的可行性、可追溯性、激励措施和去中心化治理的调查（LEAC - II）

• 批准号: 236747550
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Johannes Quaas
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW Kiel)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2012-12-31 至 2020-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/236747550?language=en
• 关键词: LEarning; About; Cloud; modification; under

Climate engineering (CE) has been proposed as a means of last resort to combat dangerous global change. However, numerous concerns arise when considering a possible implementation, or even a large field experiment. Yet, CE is not an either-or decision, and the transition from a field experiment to the application of CE is blurred. A realistic assessment of the potential future implementation of CE measures needs to seriously consider the possibility of limited-area CE. The modification of clouds exerts a radiative forcing that is localised to the region of spraying. This is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for a localised response of climate parameters such as near-surface temperature. A first question is, what could be the incentives and possibilities for countries or clubs of countries to utilise limited-area CE. To this end, we will estimate how strongly the economic preferences with respect to climate-related variables are correlated in space. Depending on the feasibility of a local manipulation of relevant climate variables, and given the preferences of the regions of the world with respect to these variables, a next question is to what extent countries or clubs of countries might make use of limited-area CE, and to what extent this would influence greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, in the absence of global cooperation on climate policy. The scope for regulation of limited-are CE depends on the possibility to attribute intended outcomes to CE measures and to exclude damages outside the targeted area. We will study this building on the experience with detection and attribution studies, making use of novel approaches exploiting ensemble climate forecasts at short timescales. In LEAC-II we finally aim at exploring the potential to draft an international regulation mechanism based on the theory of non-point source pollution control that would lead to a Pareto-improvement compared to the uncoordinated outcome. LEAC-II will address the following questions:1. Feasibility: To which extent is it possible to generate a localised climate response to a localised forcing? 2. Incentives: What is the spatial correlation of economic preferences with respect to climate variables? 3. Economic implications: What are possible welfare implications of limited-area CE when countries implement limited-area CE and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in an uncoordinated way?4. Traceability: What does it take to detect and attribute a localised effect of a CE measure, and to reject the hypothesis that climate events outside the targeted area are affected by the CE measure? - Based on ensemble modelling, this will provide probability distributions for the socio-economic assessment.5. Governance: How to regulate limited-area CE most efficiently, given the uncertainties in predictability and traceability?

气候工程（CE）已被提议作为应对危险的全球变化的最后手段。然而，在考虑可能的实施甚至大型现场实验时，会出现许多问题。然而，CE 不是一个非此即彼的决定，并且从现场实验到 CE 应用的过渡是模糊的。对未来可能实施的CE措施的现实评估需要认真考虑有限区域CE的可能性。云的改变施加了局部于喷射区域的辐射强迫。这是近地表温度等气候参数局部响应的必要条件，但不是充分条件。第一个问题是，国家或国家俱乐部利用有限区域CE的动机和可能性是什么。为此，我们将估计与气候相关变量的经济偏好在空间上的相关性有多强。根据当地操纵相关气候变量的可行性，并考虑到世界各地区对这些变量的偏好，下一个问题是，在缺乏全球气候政策合作的情况下，国家或国家俱乐部可以在多大程度上利用有限区域的CE，以及​​这将在多大程度上影响温室气体减排工作。有限区域CE的监管范围取决于将预期结果归因于CE措施并排除目标区域之外的损害的可能性。我们将在检测和归因研究的经验基础上研究这一问题，利用短时间尺度的集合气候预报的新方法。在LEAC-II中，我们最终的目标是探索基于面源污染控制理论起草国际监管机制的潜力，与不协调的结果相比，这将导致帕累托改进。 LEAC-II 将解决以下问题：1．可行性：在多大程度上可以对局部强迫产生局部气候响应？ 2. 激励措施：经济偏好与气候变量的空间相关性如何？ 3. 经济影响：当各国以不协调的方式实施有限区域强制执行并减少温室气体排放时，有限区域强制执行可能对福利产生哪些影响？4．可追溯性：如何检测和归因 CE 措施的局部效应，并拒绝目标区域外的气候事件受到 CE 措施影响的假设？ - 基于集成模型，这将为社会经济评估提供概率分布。5．治理：考虑到可预测性和可追溯性的不确定性，如何最有效地监管有限区域的CE？