Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Future ArcTic Ecosystems (FATE): drivers of diversity and future scenarios from ethno-ecology, contemporary ecology and ancient DNA

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Innovative research on the complex interaction of socio-economic and global environmental trends on biodiversity and ecosystem services is needed to help develop more informative scenarios for addressing environmental and human development challenges. Coupled natural-human systems; improved scenarios of biodiversity; and ecosystem services that couple the outputs of both direct and indirect drivers such as land use change, invasive alien species, overexploitation, environmental change, pollution, and models of impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem service are needed to overcome these challenges. These holistic approaches provide a methodological state-of-the art that results in more accurate quantitative assessments and environmental co-benefits of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This research builds on such methodology to examine changes in Arctic ecosystems that are currently experiencing dramatic change with immediate impacts on ecosystem services involving food production, climate regulation, natural resources, and cultural integrity. This research will integrate indigenous knowledge and cutting-edge scientific approaches to develop long-term profiles of changes in the distribution and abundance of key Arctic species over time. Broader impacts of the work include international collaboration between Norway, Sweden, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, and Denmark as well as UNESCO. This large international collaboration will help build bridges between countries and communities with interests in the Arctic; engage stakeholders ranging from local communities to national environmental protection agencies, including indigenous peoples; and develop a far-reaching and rich, public data resource on Arctic systems that will be available to natural and social scientists across countries and disciplines. In addition to the development of new processes that will allow the recovery of ancient DNA from sediments and their integration with other data types, this project will develop ecological forecasting models that incorporate how the diversity of organisms in the Arctic has changed in the past and is likely to change in the future. Additional impacts include the integration of science and education and training students to be the next generation of international scholars. This award supports U.S. researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a coalition of 26 funding agencies from 23 countries through the Belmont Forum call for proposals on "Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services". The call was a multilateral initiative designed to support research projects that contribute to the development of scenarios, models, and decision-support tools for understanding and solving critical issues facing our planet. The goal of the competition was to improve and apply participatory scenario methods to enhance research relevance and its acceptance and to address gaps in methods for modelling impact drivers and policy interventions. It was also to develop and communicate levels of uncertainty associated with the models, to improve data accessibility, and fill gaps in knowledge. Funds support U.S. participants in a large international consortium that will develop ecological forecasting models that incorporate chemical, physical, and multi-taxa ecological data. The models will include input from a broad spectrum of stakeholders, including indigenous peoples. Goals of this project are to dramatically improve understanding how the diversity of organisms in the Arctic has changed over time and is likely to change in the future. Participants in this effort from other countries are funded through their associated national funding organizations. The U.S. component of the work will generate records of the changing distribution and abundance of plants and animals across the Late Pleistocene and Holocene by isolating environmental DNA from long sediment cores collected from lakes across the circumpolar North. These data will be combined with that from international collaborators about changes in the distribution and abundance of species over time taken from records from local communities and indigenous peoples extending back generations. The full suite of information will be used to address: how the diversity of living organisms has changed over time at different locations in the Arctic; determine how different these changes have been across space and time; tease out what the ecological and anthropogenic drivers appear to be in changes in Arctic biodiversity; and figure out how to combine quantitative ecosystems measurements with anecdotal and recorded accounts from local communities who interact with the vegetation, climate, herbivory, and other anthropogenic influences. With this information, model-generated scenarios will be created that support sustainable ecosystem management in the face of accelerating socio-ecological transformations occurring throughout the circumpolar North.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.