RUI: Collaborative Research: Assessments and Stances Regarding the Uncertainty of (Un)Desired Outcomes
RUI:协作研究:关于(不)期望结果的不确定性的评估和立场
基本信息
- 批准号:1851766
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 13.54万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:2019
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2019-06-01 至 2024-05-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Inaccuracies in expectations and predictions about future outcomes can ruin decision making and optimal planning. One pernicious type of inaccuracy is an optimism bias, in which preferred outcomes are viewed as more likely than warranted and/or unpreferred outcomes are viewed as less likely than warranted. Optimism biases lead to problematic individual behaviors like unwise risk taking and over-purchasing, human tragedies like deaths from engineering failures and societally important phenomena like stock market bubbles. Motivational goals are often assumed to underlie optimism biases but there is an inadequate understanding of when different goals impact optimism, including goals that have the potential to reduce optimism and promote accuracy. In fact, major theories assume that preferences for outcomes and expectations about the outcomes are independent, which is inconsistent with some empirical findings. The proposed research addresses this discrepancy. The research is structured by a novel Goal-Biased Expectations Framework, which posits contextual features that shape the balance between two orientations that a person can take toward forming expectations. The balance of orientations ultimately determines whether and how goals shape expectations. The framework is also useful for developing steps to debias or reduce overoptimism and promote accuracy among professional forecasters and the public. Debiasing overoptimism can yield improved predictions and ultimately better planning, preparation, and outcomes across many contexts (e.g., financial, health, security). Three lines of experiments will be conducted. One line will examine the scope of, and processes responsible for, a crucial difference in how measures of expectations are affected by outcome desirability or preference. Past research findings have returned quite different indicators of the extent to which outcome desirability has a biasing influence, but these differences might align with a distinction between two ways in which expectations are commonly solicited in studies and in everyday contexts. A second line will address how types of available information influence the desirability bias. One surprising possibility is that as information becomes more clear, people's orientation and goals shift in a manner that produces more bias rather than less. A third line will test a novel debiasing intervention for overoptimism. Participants in the studies will include sports fans, owners of homes in floodplains, and patients?three groups known to exhibit overoptimism. All of the proposed work will inform the validity of the Goal-Biased Expectations framework. The studies on this grant will involve collaboration with graduate and undergraduate students, and therefore will play important roles in their research training/education.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
对未来结果的预期和预测不准确可能会破坏决策和最佳规划。一种有害的不准确性是乐观偏见,在这种偏见中,首选结果被认为比保证的可能性更大,和/或非首选结果被认为比保证的可能性更小。 乐观偏见会导致有问题的个人行为,如不明智的冒险和过度购买,人类悲剧,如工程失败造成的死亡,以及社会重要现象,如股市泡沫。 动机目标通常被认为是乐观偏见的基础,但对不同目标何时影响乐观主义,包括有可能降低乐观主义和提高准确性的目标,人们的理解不足。 事实上,主要的理论假设对结果的偏好和对结果的期望是独立的,这与一些实证研究结果不一致。拟议的研究解决了这一矛盾。该研究是由一个新的目标偏置的期望框架,它假定的上下文特征,形成两个方向之间的平衡,一个人可以采取对形成期望。 方向的平衡最终决定了目标是否以及如何塑造期望。 该框架还有助于制定步骤,消除偏见或减少过度乐观,提高专业预测人员和公众的准确性。 消除过度乐观的偏见可以改善预测,并最终在许多情况下(例如,金融、健康、安全)。 将进行三个实验。 一行将审查的范围,负责的过程,一个关键的差异,在如何衡量的期望是由结果的可取性或偏好的影响。 过去的研究结果已经返回了相当不同的指标的程度上的结果的愿望有偏见的影响,但这些差异可能与两种方式之间的区别,其中期望通常在研究和日常环境中征求。 第二行将讨论可用信息的类型如何影响期望偏差。 一个令人惊讶的可能性是,随着信息变得越来越清晰,人们的取向和目标发生了变化,从而产生了更多的偏见,而不是更少。第三条线将测试一种针对过度乐观的新型去偏见干预。 研究的参与者将包括体育迷、洪泛区房屋的所有者和病人。三组人都表现出过度乐观所有拟议的工作都将为目标导向预期框架的有效性提供信息。该基金的研究将涉及与研究生和本科生的合作,因此将在他们的研究培训/教育中发挥重要作用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(1)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Do People Prescribe Optimism, Overoptimism, or Neither?
人们是乐观、过度乐观,还是两者都不乐观?
- DOI:10.1177/09567976211004545
- 发表时间:2021
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:8.2
- 作者:Miller, Jane E.;Park, Inkyung;Smith, Andrew R.;Windschitl, Paul D.
- 通讯作者:Windschitl, Paul D.
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Andrew Smith其他文献
Destination London: The Expansion of the Visitor Economy
伦敦目的地:游客经济的扩张
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2019 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Andrew Smith;A. Graham - 通讯作者:
A. Graham
A Real-Time Algorithm for Accurate Collision Detection for Deformable Polyhedral Objects
可变形多面体物体精确碰撞检测的实时算法
- DOI:
10.1162/105474698565514 - 发表时间:
1998 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Y. Kitamura;Andrew Smith;H. Takemura;F. Kishino - 通讯作者:
F. Kishino
Effects of Re-Using a Conceptual Examination Question in Physics
物理中重复使用概念考试题的效果
- DOI:
10.1007/s11165-005-5114-1 - 发表时间:
2005 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
M. Sharma;Ian M. Sefton;M. Cole;Aaron Whymark;Rosemary Millar;Andrew Smith - 通讯作者:
Andrew Smith
Congo red staining in digital pathology: the "SPADA" pipeline.
数字病理学中的刚果红染色:“SPADA”管道。
- DOI:
10.1016/j.labinv.2023.100243 - 发表时间:
2023 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
G. Cazzaniga;M. Bolognesi;Matteo Davide Stefania;Francesco Mascadri;A. Eccher;F. Alberici;Federica Mescia;Andrew Smith;F. Fraggetta;Mattia Rossi;G. Gambaro;F. Pagni;V. L’Imperio - 通讯作者:
V. L’Imperio
Cladistics: A Practical Primer on CD-ROM. By Peter Skelton and Andrew Smith, with accompanying booklet by NealeMonks. Cambridge University Press, 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, ISBN: 0-521-52341-9, Price $55.00
Cladistics:实用入门 CD-ROM 版。
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2005 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:2
- 作者:
Peter Skelton;Andrew Smith - 通讯作者:
Andrew Smith
Andrew Smith的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Andrew Smith', 18)}}的其他基金
Establishing a new palaeothermometer from the speleothem archive of phosphate-oxygen isotopes
利用磷酸氧同位素洞穴档案建立新的古温度计
- 批准号:
NE/X011968/1 - 财政年份:2023
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Next Generation, Physics-Inspired AI for Space Weather Forecasting
用于空间天气预报的下一代物理启发人工智能
- 批准号:
NE/W009129/1 - 财政年份:2022
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Fellowship
Exploiting Chalcogen Bonding and Non-Covalent Interactions in Isochalcogenourea Catalysis: Catalyst Preparation, Mechanistic Studies and Applications
在异硫属脲催化中利用硫属键合和非共价相互作用:催化剂制备、机理研究和应用
- 批准号:
EP/T023643/1 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
Video-Recordings of Eyewitness Identification in Actual Cases: The Postdictive Value of Eyewitness Behaviors
实际案件中目击者识别的录像:目击者行为的事后价值
- 批准号:
2017510 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Underpinning Mechanistic Studies of NHC-Organocatalysis: A Breslow Intermediate Reactivity Scale
NHC 有机催化的基础机制研究:Breslow 中级反应量表
- 批准号:
EP/S019359/1 - 财政年份:2019
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
NSFPLR-NERC: GHOST (Geophysical Habitat of Subglacial Thwaites)
NSFPLR-NERC:GHOST(冰下思韦特斯地球物理栖息地)
- 批准号:
NE/S006672/1 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Research Grant
REU Site: Frontiers in Biomedical Imaging
REU 网站:生物医学成像前沿
- 批准号:
1757837 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Resource for innovation and application of genetic engineering strategies in embryonic stem cells
胚胎干细胞基因工程策略的创新和应用资源
- 批准号:
MC_UU_00016/10 - 财政年份:2017
- 资助金额:
$ 13.54万 - 项目类别:
Intramural
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