Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional Policy

经济学博士论文研究：用非常规政策摆脱长期停滞

• 批准号: 1851920
• 负责人: Catherine Eckel
• 金额: $ 3.6万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-05-01 至 2022-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1851920&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Escaping

PI Last Name: EckelTitle: Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional PolicyProposal ID: 1851920 Institution: Texas A&M UniversityAbstractThis research project uses laboratory experiments to understand periods of prolonged low economic growth, as distinct from cyclical low-growth periods. The goal of the project is to simulate an economy in the laboratory within which we can trigger a permanent decline in economic activity along with falling prices, and then to explore various policy interventions that have the potential to repair the stagnant economy. In particular, the project focuses on what actions policy makers can take (monetary and fiscal policy) to restore the experimental economy to full employment. The research explores whether the timing and contextual communication of policy can influence the efficacy of policy. The laboratory experiments in this project are designed to explore secular stagnation in a closed economy. Specifically, the research implements a recent formalization of secular stagnation that uses an overlapping-generations structure to break the representative agent assumption and allow for endogenous bouts of activity at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Exogenous deleveraging shocks can trigger spending gluts that create deflation, and lead to a secular stagnation equilibrium, which can be unique. The objective of the research is to identify whether deflationary and inflationary equilibria emerge when they are unique, and to explore equilibrium selection when multiple equilibria exist. Additionally, the project investigates the ability of monetary policy, in the form of inflation targeting, and fiscal policy, consisting of "helicopter drops" financed using lump-sum taxes levied on the middle-aged cohort in our experimental economy, to pull the economy out of a deflationary equilibrium following a debt-deleveraging shock. Both potential remedies improve economic conditions through an expectations channel by making households more optimistic about future economic conditions. Finally, the project studies the effect of variation in both the timing and contextual communication of policy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PI姓：EckelTitle：博士论文经济学研究：用非常规政策摆脱长期停滞机构：Texas a&m university摘要本研究项目使用实验室实验来理解与周期性低增长时期不同的长期经济低增长时期。该项目的目标是在实验室中模拟一个经济体，在这个经济体中，我们可以触发经济活动随着价格下跌而永久下降，然后探索有可能修复停滞经济的各种政策干预措施。该项目特别关注决策者可以采取哪些行动（货币和财政政策），以使实验性经济恢复充分就业。本研究探讨政策的时机和语境沟通是否会影响政策的有效性。这个项目的实验室实验旨在探索封闭经济中的长期停滞。具体而言，该研究实现了长期停滞的最近形式化，该形式化使用重叠代结构来打破代表性代理假设，并允许在零下限（ZLB）处出现内生活动。外源性去杠杆冲击可能引发消费过剩，从而造成通缩，并导致长期停滞均衡，这种均衡可能是独一无二的。研究的目的是确定通货紧缩和通货膨胀均衡是否在它们是唯一的情况下出现，并探讨多重均衡存在时的均衡选择。此外，该项目还研究了货币政策（以通货膨胀目定制的形式）和财政政策（包括“直升机撒钱”）在债务去杠杆化冲击后将经济拉出通缩均衡的能力。财政政策的资金来源是对我们实验性经济体中的中年群体征收的一次性税收。这两种可能的补救措施都是通过预期渠道改善经济状况，使家庭对未来的经济状况更加乐观。最后，该项目研究了政策时机和语境沟通变化的影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?

央行是否应该在其预测中传达不确定性？

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.11.013
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
• 影响因子: 2.2
• 作者: Rholes, Ryan;Petersen, Luba
• 通讯作者: Petersen, Luba