Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional Policy

皮姓氏：埃克尔：博士论文题目：经济学研究：用非常规政策摆脱长期停滞建议ID：1851920机构：德克萨斯农工大学摘要这项研究项目使用实验室实验来理解长期的低经济增长时期，区别于周期性的低增长时期。该项目的目标是在实验室模拟一个经济，在这个经济中，我们可以引发经济活动随着价格下跌而永久性下降，然后探索有可能修复停滞不前的经济的各种政策干预。该项目尤其关注政策制定者可以采取哪些行动(货币和财政政策)，以使试验性经济恢复充分就业。本研究探讨了政策的时机和语境沟通是否会影响政策的有效性。该项目的实验室实验旨在探索封闭经济中的长期停滞。具体地说，这项研究实现了最近对长期停滞的形式化，使用世代重叠的结构来打破代表性代理人假设，并允许在零下限(ZLB)处发生内生活动。外生的去杠杆化冲击可能会引发支出过剩，从而导致通缩，并导致长期停滞均衡，这可能是独一无二的。这项研究的目的是确定当通货紧缩和通胀均衡是唯一的时候是否会出现，并探索当存在多个均衡时的均衡选择。此外，该项目还调查了以通胀目标制为形式的货币政策和财政政策(包括通过对我们实验经济体中的中年人征收一次性税收来筹集资金)在债务去杠杆化冲击后将经济拉出通缩均衡的能力。这两种可能的补救措施都通过预期渠道改善经济状况，让家庭对未来的经济状况更加乐观。最后，该项目研究了政策在时间和背景沟通方面的变化的影响。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

PI Last Name: EckelTitle: Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Escaping Secular Stagnation with Unconventional PolicyProposal ID: 1851920 Institution: Texas A&M UniversityAbstractThis research project uses laboratory experiments to understand periods of prolonged low economic growth, as distinct from cyclical low-growth periods. The goal of the project is to simulate an economy in the laboratory within which we can trigger a permanent decline in economic activity along with falling prices, and then to explore various policy interventions that have the potential to repair the stagnant economy. In particular, the project focuses on what actions policy makers can take (monetary and fiscal policy) to restore the experimental economy to full employment. The research explores whether the timing and contextual communication of policy can influence the efficacy of policy. The laboratory experiments in this project are designed to explore secular stagnation in a closed economy. Specifically, the research implements a recent formalization of secular stagnation that uses an overlapping-generations structure to break the representative agent assumption and allow for endogenous bouts of activity at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Exogenous deleveraging shocks can trigger spending gluts that create deflation, and lead to a secular stagnation equilibrium, which can be unique. The objective of the research is to identify whether deflationary and inflationary equilibria emerge when they are unique, and to explore equilibrium selection when multiple equilibria exist. Additionally, the project investigates the ability of monetary policy, in the form of inflation targeting, and fiscal policy, consisting of "helicopter drops" financed using lump-sum taxes levied on the middle-aged cohort in our experimental economy, to pull the economy out of a deflationary equilibrium following a debt-deleveraging shock. Both potential remedies improve economic conditions through an expectations channel by making households more optimistic about future economic conditions. Finally, the project studies the effect of variation in both the timing and contextual communication of policy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.