权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Climate Engineering on Land: Comprehensive evaluation of Earth system impacts of terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (CE-LAND+)

陆地气候工程：陆地二氧化碳清除对地球系统影响的综合评价（CE-LAND）

基本信息

批准号：
236906451
负责人：
Professor Dr. Dieter Gerten
金额：
--
依托单位：
Integratives Forschungsinstitut zu Transformationen von Mensch-Umwelt-Systemen (IRI THESys)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Priority Programmes
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2019-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/236906451?language=en
关键词：
Climate Engineering Land Comprehensive evaluation

项目摘要

Terrestrial Carbon Dioxide Removal (tCDR) methods, comprising afforestation and dedicated biomass plantations, are sometimes referred to as effective, 'green' and safe climate engineering (CE) options, as they increase the biosphere's natural function as a CO2 sink and appear to be economically feasible. However, evidence from the first phase of the CE-LAND project indicates that tCDR is as controversial as other CE options as it points to difficult Earth-systemic and ethical considerations. Mere CO2 budgeting and economic consideration of tCDR methods thus needs to be supplemented by sound analysis of their environmental limits, their impacts on the Earth system with related uncertainties, their tradeoffs with other land and water uses, and their potentially far-reaching ethical implications. Analysis of hypothetical scenarios in the first project phase suggests that substantial land areas would be required for tCDR to be effective, such that tough tradeoffs with other land uses would emerge. Moreover, results indicate that significant side-effects on the climate system (besides the intended reduction of global mean temperature) and on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles would occur. CE-LAND+ will deliver a more in-depth, quantitative and spatially explicit evaluation of non-economic costs of biosphere transformation for tCDR. It will address potential tradeoffs and impacts along with a systematic analysis of major uncertainties in their estimation by employing two biogeophysical vegetation models, one Earth system model and, new to the project, dynamic biodiversity models. Specifically, CE-LAND+ will investigate the - hitherto largely unquantified - tradeoffs between maximising areas for tCDR and biodiversity protection on the one hand, and between maximising freshwater availability for tCDR and both food production and river ecosystems on the other hand, respectively. Also, the (in)direct impacts of background climate change and tCDR-related land use change on water scarcity (based on different metrics, also assuming different levels of irrigation management) and biodiversity will be quantified. The tradeoffs and impacts will be contextualised with a view on global sustainability goals besides abating climate change, namely biodiversity conservation, freshwater security and food security - a context otherwise not provided in the Priority Program. Furthermore, the project will contribute to a better understanding and quantification of key uncertainties of tCDR effects under future climate change by examining model-structural differences, growth and mortality of tCDR plants under high-temperature, high-CO2 conditions, and feedbacks between tCDR land use activities and climate. Finally, CE-LAND+ will contribute, in cooperations within the Priority Program and with a representative set of our scenarios, to the evaluation of tCDR-related tradeoffs from an environmental ethics perspective.

陆地二氧化碳清除(TCDR)方法，包括植树造林和专门的生物质种植园，有时被称为有效、绿色和安全的气候工程(CE)选择，因为它们增加了生物圈作为二氧化碳汇的自然功能，似乎在经济上是可行的。然而，来自CE-LAND项目第一阶段的证据表明，tCDR与其他CE备选方案一样具有争议性，因为它指出了困难的地球-系统和伦理考虑。因此，仅是二氧化碳预算编制和对tCDR方法的经济考虑就需要对其环境限制、其对地球系统的相关不确定性的影响、其与其他土地和水用途的权衡以及其潜在的深远的伦理影响进行合理的分析。对第一个项目阶段假设情景的分析表明，要使技术发展策略发挥作用，需要大量的土地面积，这样就会出现与其他土地用途的艰难权衡。此外，结果表明，这将对气候系统和陆地生物地球化学循环产生重大的副作用(除了有意降低全球平均气温之外)。CE-LAND+将对tCDR的生物圈改造的非经济成本进行更深入、定量和空间上明确的评估。它将处理潜在的权衡和影响，并通过采用两个生物地球物理植被模型、一个地球系统模型和该项目的新动态生物多样性模型，对估计中的主要不确定性进行系统分析。具体来说，CE-LAND+将调查--迄今为止基本上没有量化--一方面最大化可用于tCDR的面积与生物多样性保护之间的权衡，以及分别在最大化tCDR与粮食生产和河流生态系统之间的权衡。此外，还将量化背景气候变化和与tCDR相关的土地利用变化对水资源稀缺(基于不同的衡量标准，也假设不同的灌溉管理水平)和生物多样性的直接影响。除了减缓气候变化之外，这些权衡和影响将结合全球可持续发展目标的背景，即生物多样性保护、淡水安全和粮食安全--这是优先计划中没有提供的背景。此外，该项目将通过研究模型--高温、高二氧化碳条件下tCDR植物的生长和死亡，以及tCDR土地利用活动与气候之间的反馈--有助于更好地理解和量化未来气候变化下tCDR影响的关键不确定性。最后，CE-LAND+将在优先计划内与我们的一组有代表性的情景合作，从环境伦理的角度对与tCDR相关的权衡进行评估。