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PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: A Dynamic Unified Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Analysis and Prediction Spanning across the Coastal Floodplain and Ocean

预防事件轨道 2：协作研究：跨沿海洪泛区和海洋的飓风风暴潮分析和预测的动态统一框架

基本信息

批准号：
1854986
负责人：
Clinton Dawson
金额：
$ 35.94万
依托单位：
University of Texas at Austin
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Continuing Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-08-15 至 2024-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1854986&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
PREEVENTS Track Collaborative Research Dynamic

项目摘要

Storm-driven coastal flooding is influenced by many physical processes including riverine discharges, regional rainfall, wind, atmospheric pressure, wave-induced set up, wave runup, tides, and fluctuating baseline ocean water levels. Operational storm surge models such as those used by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System) incorporate a variety of these processes including riverine discharges, atmospheric winds and pressure, waves, and tides. However, coastal surge models do not typically incorporate the impact of rainfall across the coastal floodplain nor fluctuations in background water levels due to the oceanic density structure. Nonetheless, the floodplain hydrology and ocean baseline water levels provide vital controls in riverine and estuarine environments (e.g., the dramatic effect seen in the Houston metropolitan region during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and in North Carolina during Hurricane Florence in 2018). Recent events have shown that a unified approach that incorporates all the relevant physical processes is critical for accurate predictive simulations of coastal flooding due to extreme events. This project will tackle this challenge by melding hydrology, hydraulics, and waves into a dynamic unified computational framework that uses unstructured meshes spanning from the deep ocean to upland areas and across the coastal floodplain. Improved capacity for flood risk managers, the insurance industry, and city planners to evaluate flood risk across the entire coastal floodplain. Improved models will lead to better guidance on development and construction practices, will help make cities more resilient and will reduce risk for coastal populations and infrastructure. In addition, this work will improve coastal flood forecasting enabling federal, state, and local disaster managers, to optimize issuing warnings for evacuation and emergency planning. The collaboration between the ocean circulation, coastal hydrodynamics, and hydrology modeling communities fostered by this project will help support ambitious projects such as NOAA's National Water Center's National Integrated Water Model, which is at the preliminary stages of integration of hydrology and coastal hydrodynamics. Training of students at the intersection of hydrology, coastal hydrodynamics, physical oceanography, and computational mathematics, to help develop and apply ever-more complex and advanced models in academia, government and industry.The proposed unified framework will improve the predicted water level gradient and flows throughout the coastal floodplain by integrally considering the rainfall-driven hydrology within the coastal floodplain as well as improving the background open ocean water level. Well-developed but coarse global ocean models will be heterogeneously coupled to high-resolution 2D shallow water equation models in order to account for large-scale baroclinic ocean processes that impact coastal water levels. Interface strategies and conditions between heterogeneous physics will be developed that allow the interfaces to move in time and space for the range of physics from dry to surface runoff to pressurized flow. Applying the right physics and associated mathematical models as the storms evolve will result in more robust and accurate models, as well as much more efficient models. This will dynamically account for the hydrologic - hydrodynamic interaction of water across the floodplain. Dynamic load balancing will account for widely varying computational (CPU) costs for each set of physics and the dynamic migration of the physics will be implemented within the heterogeneous parallel computing environment.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

风暴驱动的沿海洪水受到许多物理过程的影响，包括河流排放、区域降雨、风、大气压力、波浪引起的建立、波浪上升、潮汐和海洋基线水位波动。操作风暴潮模型，如NOAA海洋预测中心（温带风暴潮和潮汐操作预报系统）使用的模型，包含了各种过程，包括河流排放、大气风和压力、波浪和潮汐。然而，沿海浪涌模式通常不考虑沿海洪泛区降雨的影响，也不考虑由于海洋密度结构引起的背景水位波动。尽管如此，洪泛区水文和海洋基线水位对河流和河口环境提供了至关重要的控制（例如，2017年哈维飓风和2018年佛罗伦萨飓风期间在休斯顿大都会地区所看到的巨大影响）。最近的事件表明，结合所有相关物理过程的统一方法对于极端事件引起的沿海洪水的准确预测模拟至关重要。该项目将通过将水文、水力学和波浪融合到一个动态的统一计算框架中来解决这一挑战，该框架使用从深海到高地地区和整个沿海洪泛平原的非结构化网格。提高洪水风险管理者、保险业和城市规划者评估整个沿海洪泛平原洪水风险的能力。改进后的模型将为开发和建设实践提供更好的指导，将有助于提高城市的抵御能力，并将减少沿海人口和基础设施面临的风险。此外，这项工作将改进沿海洪水预报，使联邦、州和地方灾害管理人员能够优化发布疏散和应急计划的预警。该项目促进了海洋环流、沿海水动力学和水文建模社区之间的合作，将有助于支持雄心勃勃的项目，如NOAA国家水中心的国家综合水模型，该模型正处于水文学和沿海水动力学整合的初步阶段。培养水文学、海岸水动力学、物理海洋学和计算数学交叉学科的学生，帮助他们在学术界、政府和工业界开发和应用越来越复杂和先进的模型。提出的统一框架将通过综合考虑沿海漫滩内降雨驱动的水文以及改善背景开阔海洋水位，改善整个沿海漫滩的水位梯度和流量预测。发达但粗糙的全球海洋模型将与高分辨率二维浅水方程模型非均匀耦合，以解释影响沿海水位的大尺度斜压海洋过程。将开发异质物理之间的界面策略和条件，允许界面在时间和空间上移动，从干燥到地表径流再到加压流动的物理范围。随着风暴的演变，应用正确的物理和相关的数学模型将产生更可靠和准确的模型，以及更有效的模型。这将动态地解释水在洪泛平原上的水文-水动力相互作用。动态负载平衡将考虑到每组物理的计算（CPU）成本的广泛变化，并且物理的动态迁移将在异构并行计算环境中实现。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（7）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for a dispersive wave hydro-sediment-morphodynamic model

DOI：
10.1016/j.cma.2021.113684
发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
ArXiv
影响因子：
0
作者：
Kazbek Kazhyken;J. Videman;C. Dawson
通讯作者：
Kazbek Kazhyken;J. Videman;C. Dawson

Cross-mode stabilized stochastic shallow water systems using stochastic finite element methods

DOI：
10.1016/j.cma.2022.115873
发表时间：
2023-01-17
期刊：
COMPUTER METHODS IN APPLIED MECHANICS AND ENGINEERING
影响因子：
7.2
作者：
Chen, Chen;Dawson, Clint;Valseth, Eirik
通讯作者：
Valseth, Eirik

Developing a Modeling Framework to Simulate Compound Flooding: When Storm Surge Interacts With Riverine Flow

开发模拟复合洪水的建模框架：当风暴潮与河流相互作用时

DOI：
10.3389/fclim.2020.609610
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Frontiers in Climate
影响因子：
0
作者：
Loveland, Mark;Kiaghadi, Amin;Dawson, Clint N.;Rifai, Hanadi S.;Misra, Shubhra;Mosser, Helena;Parola, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Parola, Alessandro

A stable mixed finite element method for nearly incompressible linear elastostatics

近不可压缩线性弹性静力学的稳定混合有限元方法