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Collaborative Research: Numerical and Probabilistic Modeling of Aboveground Storage Tanks Subjected to Multi-Hazard Storm Events

合作研究：遭受多重灾害风暴事件的地上储罐的数值和概率建模

基本信息

批准号：
1635115
负责人：
Clinton Dawson
金额：
$ 24万
依托单位：
University of Texas at Austin
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2016-08-15 至 2020-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1635115&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Numerical Probabilistic Modeling

项目摘要

Aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) used to store hazardous materials, such as crude oil, can suffer major damage in severe storms resulting in spills with catastrophic social, environmental, and economic consequences. Failure of these structures has been attributed to flotation, buckling, or damage from debris. Despite significant evidence of tank vulnerability and consequences of failure, understanding of the mechanisms leading to AST failure under multiple storm-induced hazards (e.g., surge, wave, wind) is limited. This research will address such gaps by providing numerical models that are capable of capturing the complex fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and nonlinear system behavior exhibited by ASTs under multi-hazard loads. Furthermore, probabilistic models of tank performance in severe storms will be developed, filling a major gap in risk assessment of this critical industrial and energy infrastructure. The advanced computational resources and collaboration and analysis tools of the National Science Foundation-supported Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) cyberinfrastructure, DesignSafe-CI.org, will be utilized and enhanced in this effort. Through this research, open source codes and probabilistic tools will be provided to better understand the public's risk of being exposed to hazardous spills with far reaching environmental and social impacts. To support risk reduction efforts, viable strategies to avoid such spills are investigated and disseminated to relevant stakeholders in addition to the scientific community. Along with the contribution of open source computer models to the natural hazards engineering community, this project will provide training materials and demonstration applications of DesignSafe-CI functionalities that can be used for education and community outreach on cyberinfrastructure-enabled research.This project will harness the synergies of a multi-disciplinary team spanning computational sciences and structural engineering to provide robust numerical models of AST response under multi-flow conditions and to subsequently derive the first models of AST fragility under multiple storm-induced hazards. The project's research and educational objectives include: 1) advanced numerical modeling of FSI with emphasis on surge, wave, and wind impacts on ASTs; 2) derivation of multi-hazard flotation and buckling fragility models for ASTs in the presence of local and global imperfections; 3) case study analysis of a portfolio of tanks with the developed numerical and probabilistic models and dissemination of lessons learned; and 4) development of learning modules on cyberinfrastructure-enabled multi-disciplinary teaming for the natural hazards engineering community. To meet these objectives, open source, multi-physics software will be developed to capture complicated multi-phase flow scenarios and also allow for streamlined analysis of regional storm simulations with localized FSI response modeling. Numerical simulation with the resulting codes will provide new insight into the response of ASTs subjected to surge, wave, and wind and enable sensitivity and fragility analysis for flotation and buckling failure modes across a range of uncertain hazard and structural parameters. Given the computational complexity of simulating associated AST behavior, statistical surrogate models will be derived based on the numerical FSI simulations. This strategy is expected to render efficient limit state analysis for fragility modeling of ASTs feasible for the first time under surge, wave, and wind and address a major gap in risk assessment of ASTs. The resulting parameterized formulations will be amenable to sensitivity analyses and ready application to a portfolio of tank infrastructure, which will be tested through a case study in the Houston, Texas region.

用于储存原油等危险材料的地上储罐 (AST) 在严重风暴中可能会遭受重大损坏，导致泄漏，从而造成灾难性的社会、环境和经济后果。这些结构的失效归因于漂浮、屈曲或碎片损坏。尽管有大量证据表明储罐的脆弱性和故障后果，但对多种风暴诱发的灾害（例如浪涌、波浪、风）下导致 AST 故障的机制的了解仍然有限。这项研究将通过提供能够捕捉复杂的流固耦合 (FSI) 和 AST 在多种危险载荷下表现出的非线性系统行为的数值模型来解决这些差距。此外，还将开发严重风暴中储罐性能的概率模型，填补这一关键工业和能源基础设施风险评估的重大空白。美国国家科学基金会支持的自然灾害工程研究基础设施 (NHERI) 网络基础设施 DesignSafe-CI.org 的先进计算资源以及协作和分析工具将在这项工作中得到利用和增强。通过这项研究，将提供开源代码和概率工具，以更好地了解公众面临危险泄漏的风险，并产生深远的环境和社会影响。为了支持降低风险的工作，我们对避免此类泄漏的可行策略进行了研究，并将其传播给科学界以外的相关利益相关者。除了开源计算机模型对自然灾害工程社区的贡献外，该项目还将提供 DesignSafe-CI 功能的培训材料和演示应用程序，可用于网络基础设施支持研究的教育和社区推广。该项目将利用跨计算科学和结构工程的多学科团队的协同作用，提供多流条件下 AST 响应的稳健数值模型，并随后推导出多种风暴诱发灾害下 AST 脆弱性的第一个模型。该项目的研究和教育目标包括：1）先进的 FSI 数值模拟，重点关注浪涌、波浪和风对 AST 的影响； 2）在存在局部和整体缺陷的情况下推导 AST 的多危险浮选和屈曲脆性模型； 3）利用已开发的数值和概率模型对坦克组合进行案例研究分析并传播经验教训； 4) 为自然灾害工程界开发基于网络基础设施的多学科团队学习模块。为了实现这些目标，将开发开源多物理场软件来捕获复杂的多相流场景，并允许通过局部 FSI 响应模型对区域风暴模拟进行简化分析。使用生成的代码进行数值模拟将为 AST 在浪涌、波浪和风作用下的响应提供新的见解，并能够对一系列不确定的危险和结构参数下的浮力和屈曲失效模式进行敏感性和脆弱性分析。考虑到模拟相关 AST 行为的计算复杂性，将基于数值 FSI 模拟导出统计替代模型。该策略有望首次在浪涌、波浪和风的作用下为 AST 的脆弱性建模提供有效的极限状态分析，并解决 AST 风险评估中的主要差距。由此产生的参数化公式将适合敏感性分析并随时应用于储罐基础设施组合，这将通过德克萨斯州休斯顿地区的案例研究进行测试。