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Collaborative Research: Numerical and Probabilistic Modeling of Aboveground Storage Tanks Subjected to Multi-Hazard Storm Events

合作研究：遭受多重灾害风暴事件的地上储罐的数值和概率建模

基本信息

批准号：
1635115
负责人：
Clinton Dawson
金额：
$ 24万
依托单位：
University of Texas at Austin
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2016-08-15 至 2020-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1635115&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Numerical Probabilistic Modeling

项目摘要

Aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) used to store hazardous materials, such as crude oil, can suffer major damage in severe storms resulting in spills with catastrophic social, environmental, and economic consequences. Failure of these structures has been attributed to flotation, buckling, or damage from debris. Despite significant evidence of tank vulnerability and consequences of failure, understanding of the mechanisms leading to AST failure under multiple storm-induced hazards (e.g., surge, wave, wind) is limited. This research will address such gaps by providing numerical models that are capable of capturing the complex fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and nonlinear system behavior exhibited by ASTs under multi-hazard loads. Furthermore, probabilistic models of tank performance in severe storms will be developed, filling a major gap in risk assessment of this critical industrial and energy infrastructure. The advanced computational resources and collaboration and analysis tools of the National Science Foundation-supported Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) cyberinfrastructure, DesignSafe-CI.org, will be utilized and enhanced in this effort. Through this research, open source codes and probabilistic tools will be provided to better understand the public's risk of being exposed to hazardous spills with far reaching environmental and social impacts. To support risk reduction efforts, viable strategies to avoid such spills are investigated and disseminated to relevant stakeholders in addition to the scientific community. Along with the contribution of open source computer models to the natural hazards engineering community, this project will provide training materials and demonstration applications of DesignSafe-CI functionalities that can be used for education and community outreach on cyberinfrastructure-enabled research.This project will harness the synergies of a multi-disciplinary team spanning computational sciences and structural engineering to provide robust numerical models of AST response under multi-flow conditions and to subsequently derive the first models of AST fragility under multiple storm-induced hazards. The project's research and educational objectives include: 1) advanced numerical modeling of FSI with emphasis on surge, wave, and wind impacts on ASTs; 2) derivation of multi-hazard flotation and buckling fragility models for ASTs in the presence of local and global imperfections; 3) case study analysis of a portfolio of tanks with the developed numerical and probabilistic models and dissemination of lessons learned; and 4) development of learning modules on cyberinfrastructure-enabled multi-disciplinary teaming for the natural hazards engineering community. To meet these objectives, open source, multi-physics software will be developed to capture complicated multi-phase flow scenarios and also allow for streamlined analysis of regional storm simulations with localized FSI response modeling. Numerical simulation with the resulting codes will provide new insight into the response of ASTs subjected to surge, wave, and wind and enable sensitivity and fragility analysis for flotation and buckling failure modes across a range of uncertain hazard and structural parameters. Given the computational complexity of simulating associated AST behavior, statistical surrogate models will be derived based on the numerical FSI simulations. This strategy is expected to render efficient limit state analysis for fragility modeling of ASTs feasible for the first time under surge, wave, and wind and address a major gap in risk assessment of ASTs. The resulting parameterized formulations will be amenable to sensitivity analyses and ready application to a portfolio of tank infrastructure, which will be tested through a case study in the Houston, Texas region.

用于储存原油等危险材料的地上储罐（AST）可能会在严重风暴中遭受重大损坏，导致泄漏，造成灾难性的社会、环境和经济后果。这些结构的失效归因于漂浮、屈曲或碎片损坏。尽管有大量的证据表明坦克的脆弱性和失败的后果，理解的机制，导致AST故障下的多个风暴引起的危害（例如，浪涌、波浪、风）是有限的。本研究将通过提供能够捕获多危险载荷下AST所表现出的复杂流体-结构相互作用（FSI）和非线性系统行为的数值模型来解决这些差距。此外，还将开发在强风暴中储罐性能的概率模型，填补这一关键工业和能源基础设施风险评估方面的一个重大空白。在这项工作中，将利用和加强国家科学基金会支持的自然灾害工程研究基础设施网络基础设施DesignSafe-CI.org的先进计算资源和协作及分析工具。通过这项研究，将提供开源代码和概率工具，以更好地了解公众暴露于具有深远环境和社会影响的危险泄漏的风险。为了支持减少风险的努力，对避免此类溢漏的可行战略进行了调查，并向科学界以外的相关利益攸关方传播。沿着开源计算机模型对自然灾害工程界的贡献，该项目将提供DesignSafe-CI功能的培训材料和示范应用，可用于网络基础设施支持研究的教育和社区推广。该项目将利用多个跨学科团队计算科学和结构工程提供强大的数值模型AST响应下的多流量条件下，并随后推导出AST脆弱性的第一个模型下，多个风暴引起的危害。该项目的研究和教育目标包括：1）FSI的高级数值模拟，重点是浪涌，波浪和风对AST的影响; 2）在存在局部和全局缺陷的情况下，推导AST的多危险漂浮和屈曲脆弱性模型; 3）使用开发的数值和概率模型对储罐组合进行案例研究分析，并传播经验教训;以及4）为自然灾害工程界开发关于网络基础设施支持的多学科协作的学习模块。为了实现这些目标，将开发开源的多物理场软件，以捕获复杂的多相流场景，并通过本地化的FSI响应建模对区域风暴模拟进行简化分析。所产生的代码的数值模拟将提供新的见解的响应的AST受到浪涌，波浪和风，并使敏感性和脆弱性分析的浮动和屈曲故障模式在一系列不确定的危险和结构参数。考虑到模拟相关AST行为的计算复杂性，将基于数值FSI模拟推导统计替代模型。该策略预计将使有效的极限状态分析的脆弱性建模的ASTs可行的第一次在浪涌，波浪和风，并解决了一个主要的差距，在风险评估的ASTs。由此产生的参数化配方将服从敏感性分析和准备应用到一个组合的坦克基础设施，这将通过在得克萨斯州休斯敦地区的案例研究进行测试。