Collaborative Research: Numerical and Probabilistic Modeling of Aboveground Storage Tanks Subjected to Multi-Hazard Storm Events

合作研究：遭受多重灾害风暴事件的地上储罐的数值和概率建模

基本信息

批准号：
1635115
负责人：
Clinton Dawson
金额：
$ 24万
依托单位：
University of Texas at Austin
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2016-08-15 至 2020-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1635115&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Numerical Probabilistic Modeling

项目摘要

Aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) used to store hazardous materials, such as crude oil, can suffer major damage in severe storms resulting in spills with catastrophic social, environmental, and economic consequences. Failure of these structures has been attributed to flotation, buckling, or damage from debris. Despite significant evidence of tank vulnerability and consequences of failure, understanding of the mechanisms leading to AST failure under multiple storm-induced hazards (e.g., surge, wave, wind) is limited. This research will address such gaps by providing numerical models that are capable of capturing the complex fluid-structure interaction (FSI) and nonlinear system behavior exhibited by ASTs under multi-hazard loads. Furthermore, probabilistic models of tank performance in severe storms will be developed, filling a major gap in risk assessment of this critical industrial and energy infrastructure. The advanced computational resources and collaboration and analysis tools of the National Science Foundation-supported Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) cyberinfrastructure, DesignSafe-CI.org, will be utilized and enhanced in this effort. Through this research, open source codes and probabilistic tools will be provided to better understand the public's risk of being exposed to hazardous spills with far reaching environmental and social impacts. To support risk reduction efforts, viable strategies to avoid such spills are investigated and disseminated to relevant stakeholders in addition to the scientific community. Along with the contribution of open source computer models to the natural hazards engineering community, this project will provide training materials and demonstration applications of DesignSafe-CI functionalities that can be used for education and community outreach on cyberinfrastructure-enabled research.This project will harness the synergies of a multi-disciplinary team spanning computational sciences and structural engineering to provide robust numerical models of AST response under multi-flow conditions and to subsequently derive the first models of AST fragility under multiple storm-induced hazards. The project's research and educational objectives include: 1) advanced numerical modeling of FSI with emphasis on surge, wave, and wind impacts on ASTs; 2) derivation of multi-hazard flotation and buckling fragility models for ASTs in the presence of local and global imperfections; 3) case study analysis of a portfolio of tanks with the developed numerical and probabilistic models and dissemination of lessons learned; and 4) development of learning modules on cyberinfrastructure-enabled multi-disciplinary teaming for the natural hazards engineering community. To meet these objectives, open source, multi-physics software will be developed to capture complicated multi-phase flow scenarios and also allow for streamlined analysis of regional storm simulations with localized FSI response modeling. Numerical simulation with the resulting codes will provide new insight into the response of ASTs subjected to surge, wave, and wind and enable sensitivity and fragility analysis for flotation and buckling failure modes across a range of uncertain hazard and structural parameters. Given the computational complexity of simulating associated AST behavior, statistical surrogate models will be derived based on the numerical FSI simulations. This strategy is expected to render efficient limit state analysis for fragility modeling of ASTs feasible for the first time under surge, wave, and wind and address a major gap in risk assessment of ASTs. The resulting parameterized formulations will be amenable to sensitivity analyses and ready application to a portfolio of tank infrastructure, which will be tested through a case study in the Houston, Texas region.

地上储罐（ASTS）用于存储危险材料（例如原油）可能会在严重风暴中遭受重大破坏，从而导致灾难性的社会，环境和经济后果溢出。这些结构的故障归因于碎屑的浮选，屈曲或损害。尽管有明显的证据表明坦克脆弱性和失败后果，但了解导致多个风暴引起的危害（例如，浪涌，波浪，风）下AST失败的机制仍然有限。这项研究将通过提供能够捕获复杂流体结构相互作用（FSI）和AST在多危险载荷下展示的非线性系统行为的数值模型来解决此类差距。此外，将开发出严重风暴中坦克性能的概率模型，从而填补了对这一关键工业和能源基础设施的风险评估的主要差距。国家科学基金会支持的自然危害工程研究基础设施（NHERI）网络基础设施，DesignSafe-ci.org的先进计算资源和协作和分析工具将在这项工作中使用和增强。通过这项研究，将提供开源法规和概率工具，以更好地了解公众面临危险泄漏的风险，并具有遥远的环境和社会影响。为了支持降低风险的努力，除了科学界，还调查并传播了相关利益相关者的可行策略。除了开源计算机模型对自然危害工程社区的贡献外，该项目还将提供培训材料和示范应用功能的应用，可用于启用网络基础设施的研究，用于教育和社区宣传研究。该项目将在多学科计算科学和结构上的数字构图下，利用该项目的协同作用，以提供数字的合理响应，以提供数字构想的协同作用。随后，在多个暴风雨引起的危险下得出了最初的AST脆弱模型。该项目的研究和教育目标包括：1）FSI的高级数值建模，重点是激增，波浪和风向对AST的影响； 2）在存在局部和全局缺陷的情况下，AST的多危险浮选和屈曲脆性模型的推导； 3）案例研究分析具有开发的数值和概率模型的储罐投资组合以及经验教训的传播； 4）开发自然危害工程社区的网络基础设施多学科团队的学习模块。为了满足这些目标，将开发开源，多物理软件以捕获复杂的多相流场景，并允许对具有局部FSI响应建模的区域风暴模拟进行简化的分析。使用所得代码的数值模拟将为受浪涌，波浪和风的AST响应提供新的见解，并实现跨各种不确定危险和结构参数的浮选和屈曲失败模式的灵敏度和脆弱性分析。鉴于模拟相关AST行为的计算复杂性，将根据数值FSI模拟得出统计替代模型。预计该策略将使ASTS的脆弱性建模有效地限制态度分析，这是首次在激增，波浪和风中可行的，并解决了ASTS风险评估的主要差距。由此产生的参数化制剂将适合灵敏度分析和现成的储罐基础设施组合的应用，该组合将通过德克萨斯州休斯敦地区的案例研究进行测试。