Collaborative Research: P2C2--Quantifying Holocene Climate Variations through Data Assimilation using Proxies and General Circulation Models (GCMs) Output

该项目旨在通过将代理数据和模式模拟相结合来开发全新世期间的代理模式同化框架。开发的框架将能够解决有关全新世期间气温趋势的关键问题，这些问题表明观测数据和模型之间存在差异。此外，还将调查北美西部和北非主要水文变化--干旱--背后的气候动态。为了改进模型与数据的比较，研究人员将使用代理系统建模方法，以改进对全新世代理记录中记录的气候信号的解释，包括温度和降水的季节性。潜在的更广泛的影响包括更好地理解全新世气候动力学，调查模型模拟与全新世期间温度趋势观测之间的不匹配；以及美国西北部和北非的重大水文气候变化。将开发一个以年度分辨率进行的全新世多变量重建和一个经过管理的全新世替代记录数据库，供更广泛的气候界使用。将为研究生和早期职业科学家组织两次关于古气候数据同化的讲习班，以培训下一代古气候科学家。该项目将支持三名早期职业科学家和一名研究生。全新世多变量重建和代理网络将是有益的产品，将使整个古气候社区受益。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to develop a proxy-model assimilation framework for the Holocene period by combining proxy data and model simulations. The developed framework will allow to address critical questions about the temperature trends during the Holocene which show a discrepancy between observations and models. In addition, the climate dynamics underlying major hydrological changes-Drying- in western North America and Northern Africa will be investigated. To improve the model-data comparison, the researchers will use a proxy-system modeling approach in order to improve the interpretation of the climate signal recorded in the Holocene proxy-records, including seasonality of temperature and precipitation.The potential Broader Impacts include a greater understanding of the Holocene climate dynamics, investigating the mismatch between model simulations and observation of temperature trends during the Holocene; and major hydroclimate shifts in northwestern US and North Africa. A Holocene multi-variable reconstruction at annual resolution and a curated Holocene proxy-record database will be developed and made available for the broader climate community. Two workshops on paleoclimate data assimilation will be organized for graduate students and early career scientists to train the next generation of paleoclimate scientists. The project will support three early career scientists and a graduate student. The Holocene multi-variables reconstruction and proxy-network will be useful products that will benefit the paleoclimate community at large.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.