Doctoral Dissertation Research: Effects of Emissions Trading

这个项目直接测试排放交易是否以及在多大程度上导致了它设计实现的减排目标。具体地说，这将有助于确定排放交易是否与全球范围内城市层面和公司层面的减排有关。研究结果将为解决在国家、州和城市各级制定和实施的时间敏感问题提供相关见解。这包括但不限于参与排放交易的有效性，以及税收等替代选择是否比市场方法更可行。结果将有助于提高减排效率，这反过来可能产生长期的公共健康和国家安全红利。该项目使用了269个城市2000至2013年间城市水平排放量变化的原始数据，作为线性回归模型中的因变量。考虑到许多社会经济和环境因素，将测试两个与城市排放变化有关的独立变量，这些变量来自两个来源：(1)一个包含八个国家排放交易系统的完整公司级交易数据的数据库；(2)一个企业排放数据库，其中包括世界上市值最大的500家公司中403家公司的排放量。首先，排污权交易将从公司层面到城市层面进行整理，并测试与城市层面减排的关联。其次，企业排放变化将(A)作为自变量与城市层面的排放变化进行测试，以确定企业变化是否影响其所在城市的排放变化；以及(B)作为因变量测试企业与排污权交易系统的参与，以确定参与排污权交易是否影响企业减排。最后，将对排放交易系统内外的案例进行定性分析，评估与城市和公司减排成败相关的实地过程。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project directly tests if and to what extent emissions trading results in the reduction it is designed to achieve. Specifically, this will help determine if emissions trading is associated with such reduction at both the city-level and at the firm-level on a global scale. The results will contribute relevant insight for addressing time-sensitive matters for formulation and implementation at national, state, and city levels. This includes but is not limited to the efficacy of emissions trading participation and whether alternative options such as a tax are more viable than a market approach. Results will contribute to greater efficacy in emissions reduction, which in turn is likely to yield long-term public health and national security dividends. This project uses original data on city-level emissions change for 269 cities from between 2000 and 2013 to be treated as a dependent variable in linear regression modeling. Controlling for many socio-economic and situational factors, two independent variables of interest will be tested for association with urban emissions change, derived from two sources: (1) a database comprising full firm-level transaction data for eight national emissions trading systems, and (2) a corporate emissions database, which comprises the emissions from 403 of the largest 500 companies in the world by market capitalization. First, emissions trading transactions will be collated from the firm-level to the city-level and tested for association with city-level emissions reduction. Second, corporate emissions change will be (a) tested as an independent variable against city-level emissions change to determine if corporate change influences the emissions change of the cities in which they reside; and then (b) tested as a dependent variable against emissions trading system participation as an independent variable, to determine whether participation in emissions trading influences corporate emissions reduction. Last, a qualitative analysis of cases both within and outside emissions trading systems will be performed, assessing on-the-ground processes associated with success and failure of emissions reduction by cities and firms.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.