Doctoral Dissertation Research: Effects of Emissions Trading

该项目直接测试排放交易是否以及在多大程度上实现了其预期目标。具体而言，这将有助于确定排放交易是否与全球范围内城市一级和企业一级的减排有关。结果将有助于解决时间敏感的问题，在国家，州和城市各级制定和实施相关的见解。这包括但不限于参与排放量交易的效力，以及诸如税收等替代办法是否比市场办法更可行。结果将有助于提高减排效率，这反过来又可能产生长期的公共卫生和国家安全红利。该项目使用2000年至2013年269个城市的城市水平排放变化的原始数据作为线性回归模型的因变量。 在控制了许多社会经济和环境因素后，将测试两个相关的独立变量与城市排放变化的关联，这两个变量来自两个来源：（1）一个数据库，包括八个国家排放量交易系统的全部公司一级交易数据，和（2）一个公司排放量数据库，其中包括全球市值最大的500家公司中的403家公司的排放量。首先，将从企业一级到城市一级对排放交易进行整理，并对与城市一级减排的关联性进行测试。第二，企业排放变化将（a）作为自变量与城市一级排放变化进行检验，以确定企业变化是否影响其所在城市的排放变化;然后（B）作为因变量与排放交易系统参与情况进行检验，以确定参与排放交易是否影响企业减排。最后，对排放交易系统内外的案例进行定性分析，评估与城市和企业减排成败相关的实际过程。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project directly tests if and to what extent emissions trading results in the reduction it is designed to achieve. Specifically, this will help determine if emissions trading is associated with such reduction at both the city-level and at the firm-level on a global scale. The results will contribute relevant insight for addressing time-sensitive matters for formulation and implementation at national, state, and city levels. This includes but is not limited to the efficacy of emissions trading participation and whether alternative options such as a tax are more viable than a market approach. Results will contribute to greater efficacy in emissions reduction, which in turn is likely to yield long-term public health and national security dividends. This project uses original data on city-level emissions change for 269 cities from between 2000 and 2013 to be treated as a dependent variable in linear regression modeling. Controlling for many socio-economic and situational factors, two independent variables of interest will be tested for association with urban emissions change, derived from two sources: (1) a database comprising full firm-level transaction data for eight national emissions trading systems, and (2) a corporate emissions database, which comprises the emissions from 403 of the largest 500 companies in the world by market capitalization. First, emissions trading transactions will be collated from the firm-level to the city-level and tested for association with city-level emissions reduction. Second, corporate emissions change will be (a) tested as an independent variable against city-level emissions change to determine if corporate change influences the emissions change of the cities in which they reside; and then (b) tested as a dependent variable against emissions trading system participation as an independent variable, to determine whether participation in emissions trading influences corporate emissions reduction. Last, a qualitative analysis of cases both within and outside emissions trading systems will be performed, assessing on-the-ground processes associated with success and failure of emissions reduction by cities and firms.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.