OPUS:CRS: Global Change and California Birds and Mammals Across Centuries - The Grinnell Resurvey Project

大多数关于20世纪环境变化对动物影响的研究都集中在它们活动时间的变化上，例如繁殖和迁徙，或者使用基于物种目前所处气候的模型来预测物种的未来分布。很少有研究直接衡量环境和土地利用变化对物种出现的长期影响。这项研究将产生一个具有两个重要目标的综合：（1）将来自不同出版研究的28篇核心文章的结果汇集到一本书中，为公众、土地管理者、科学同事和“未来的学生”综合格林内尔重新调查项目的全部内容，他们将在25-30年内在更大程度的环境变化后重新调查这些地方;以及（2）为加州的鸟类绘制一幅全州范围内的变化画像，描述过去世纪的变化。该研究将利用从多物种占用模型中得出的对当地定居和灭绝的物种特异性估计，结合对气候和土地使用变化的预测，预测未来的鸟类分布，以评估受关注的物种和区域以及鸟类群落的变化程度，将通过外联出版物向公众宣传，并通过讲习班向自然资源机构宣传。格林内尔再调查项目一直在重建加州鸟类和哺乳动物多样性的历史基线，该基线来自约瑟夫·格林内尔及其同事在20世纪初人为气候变化开始之前所做的调查。他们的记录包括100，000个标本，74，000页的野外记录，包括鸟类数量和哺乳动物诱捕数据，以及10，000张图像。自2004年以来，格林内尔重新调查项目的成员一直在格林内尔的足迹遍布加州-从最低点在美国连续的死亡谷附近的最高点山。惠特尼-和进行重新调查，直接记录世纪的环境变化对鸟类和哺乳动物的影响。该项目现在已经在加州的各种环境中追溯了足够多的格林内尔的足迹，并开发了适当的方法来处理这些数据，以产生一个可信的综合。物种占有率变化的测量，直接来自同一历史地点的再调查，将与气候，土地利用和其他全球变化的测量相联系，并用于预测未来对物种的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

Most studies of the effects of 20th century environmental change on animals focus on shifts in the timing of their activities, such as breeding and migration, or develop forecasts of the future distribution of species using models based on the climate that species currently occupy. Few studies have directly measured the long-term impacts of environmental and land use change on the occurrences of species. This research will produce a synthesis with two important objectives: (1) Bring together the results of 28 core articles from different published studies into a book that synthesizes the entirety of Grinnell Resurvey Project for the general public, land managers, scientific colleagues, and "students of the future" who will resurvey these places again in 25-30 years after much greater levels of environmental change; and (2) Produce a statewide portrait of change over the past century for California's birds. Using the species-specific estimates of local colonization and extinction derived from multispecies occupancy models in conjunction with projections of climate and land-use change, the research will forecast future avian distributions, in order to evaluate species and regions of concern and the degree to which bird communities will change, which will be communicated to the public through outreach publications as well as to natural resource agencies through a workshop. The Grinnell Resurvey Project has been reconstructing a historic baseline of bird and mammal diversity in California from surveys done by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues in the early 1900's before anthropogenic climate change began. Their records include 100,000 specimens, 74,000 pages of field notes with bird count and mammal trapping data, and 10,000 images. Since 2004, members of the Grinnell Resurvey Project have been walking in Grinnell's footsteps throughout California - from the lowest point in the contiguous US in Death Valley to near its highest on Mt. Whitney - and conducting resurveys to document directly the effects of a century of environmental change on birds and mammals. The project has now retraced enough of Grinnell's footsteps throughout California's diverse environments and developed appropriate methods for working with these data to produce a credible synthesis. Measures of change in the occupancy of species, derived directly from resurveys at the same historic locations, will be linked to measures of climate, land-use and other global changes, and used to forecast future impacts on species.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.