Scientific Program Overview: Troposphere High latitude INhibitors to multi-scale sea ICE Predictability (THINICE)

这是一个支持ThinIce继续规划的奖项。NSF并没有承诺为实地项目、相关分析和数值模拟工作提供资金。这些资金决定将通过进一步审查的方式来确定。近几十年来，北极已经过渡到更具流动性、更薄的海冰和更广阔的开阔海域。这些深刻变化的一个结果是，北极气旋(ACS)在海冰消失中发挥着越来越重要的作用，在3天内，海冰可能以令人震惊的50万平方公里的速度发生，这个面积比加利福尼亚州还大，大约相当于西班牙的大小。对这种海冰损失以及北极气旋、海冰和公海之间的相互作用的准确预测，对公共安全、商业和国家安全变得越来越重要。不幸的是，即使是在天气时间尺度上，对气候变化和海冰损失的准确预测也往往是一个挑战。该奖项支持继续规划ThinIce以应对这一挑战。抽样计划将包括2021年7月和8月为期6周的国际多机构实地活动，以及补充的数字建模和分析部分。这个科学项目概述(SPO)项目是为了组织第一次系统的观测调查，以加强我们对决定TPV、ACS的位置、强度、演变和特征以及它们影响海冰破裂和下降的潜力的关键机制的理解。ThinIce将直接为美国国家科学基金会“穿越新北极”的目标做出贡献，该机构是未来在科学和工程前沿投资的十大大胆想法之一。ThinIce还将通过教育和外联活动，利用NSF的本科生研究经验计划，让土著学生参与进来，包括通过新颖的社交媒体努力，促进NSF包括(在全国范围内纳入工程和科学领域未被充分代表的发现者的学习社区)。中纬度气旋和北极气旋的动力存在根本差异。气候变化对北冰洋海冰的影响引起了人们的关注。特别是，对流层顶极涡(TPV)是形成气旋的重要前兆，当这些涡旋与低层斜压区相互作用时，就会发生气旋发生。北极和中纬度地区天气系统的另一个不同之处是，相对于潜热，辐射过程在高纬度地区的重要性增加。因此，云和辐射过程的处理对于准确确定TPV和AC的结构和强度可能是至关重要的。虽然已经发起了研究中纬度气旋的主要实地活动，但尚未对气旋和气旋进行详细的观测研究。ThinIce SPO将协调工作和计划，利用从NSF-NCAR GV研究机获得的现场和遥感测量来促进我们对以下方面的了解：(1)控制气旋和气旋的强度、结构和演变的动力学和物理过程；(2)气旋和气旋之间的动力学相互作用，包括气旋发生中气旋发生的作用和当多个气旋相互作用时气旋如何改变；以及(3)夏季TPV和AC与下伏海面和海冰的耦合，以及这种耦合如何导致海冰的快速消失和反馈，进而可能修改TPV和AC。这一裁决反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This is an award to support continued planning for THINICE. It is not a commitment by NSF to fund the field project, related analysis and numerical simulation work. Those funding decisions will be determined by means of further review.In recent decades, the Arctic has transitioned to more mobile and thinner sea ice and more expansive stretches of open ocean. One outcome of these profound changes is the increasingly important role of Arctic Cyclones (ACs) in the loss of sea ice, which can occur at an astonishing rate of 1/2 million km2 within a 3-day period, an area that is bigger than California and approximately the size of Spain. An accurate prediction of such sea ice losses and the interplay between Arctic cyclones, sea ice and the open ocean is becoming increasing important for public safety, commerce, and national security. Unfortunately, the accurate prediction of ACs and sea ice loss is often a challenge, even on weather time-scales. This award supports continued planning for the THINICE to address this challenge. The sampling plan will include a 6-week international, multi-agency field campaign for July and August 2021 with a complementary numerical modeling and analysis component. This Scientific Project Overview (SPO) project is to organize the first systematic observational investigation to enhance our understanding of the critical mechanisms that determine the location, strength, evolution, and characteristics of TPVs, ACs and their potential for influencing sea ice break-up and decline. THINICE will directly contribute to NSF's goal of 'Navigating the New Arctic', which is one of the agencies ten bold ideas for future investment at the frontiers of science and engineering. THINICE will also contribute to NSF INCLUDES (Inclusion across the Nation of Communities of Learners of Underrepresented Discoverers in Engineering and Science) through educational and outreach activities that utilize NSF's Research Experience for Undergraduates program to involve indigenous students, including through novel social media efforts. Fundamental differences exist between the dynamics of cyclones in middle latitude and the Arctic. ACs have received attention for their impact on the Arctic sea ice. In particular, Tropopause Polar Vortices (TPVs) serve as an important precursor to the formation of ACs with cyclogenesis taking place when these vortices interact with low-level baroclinic zones. Another difference between weather systems in the Arctic and middle latitudes is the increased importance at higher latitudes of radiative processes relative to latent heating. Thus, the treatment of cloud and radiative processes is likely critical to accurately defining the structure and intensity of TPVs and ACs. While major field campaigns have been launched to study cyclones in middle latitudes, detailed observational studies of TPVs and ACs have not yet been undertaken. The THINICE SPO will coordinate efforts with plans to utilize in-situ and remote sensing measurements taken from the NSF-NCAR GV research aircraft to advance our knowledge of: (1) The dynamical and physical processes that control the intensity, structure, and evolution of ACs and TPVs; (2) The dynamical interactions between TPVs and ACs, including the role of TPVs in cyclogenesis and how ACs are modified when multiple TPVs are interactive; and (3) The coupling of TPVs and ACs with the underlying sea surface and sea ice during the summer, and how such coupling can lead to rapid sea ice loss and feedbacks that might, in turn, modify TPVs and ACs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.