Scientific Program Overview: Troposphere High latitude INhibitors to multi-scale sea ICE Predictability (THINICE)

科学计划概述：对流层高纬度多尺度海冰可预测性抑制因素 (THINICE)

• 批准号: 1918557
• 负责人: Steven Cavallo
• 金额: $ 2.26万
• 依托单位: University of Oklahoma Norman Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1918557&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Scientific; Program; Overview; Troposphere; latitude

This is an award to support continued planning for THINICE. It is not a commitment by NSF to fund the field project, related analysis and numerical simulation work. Those funding decisions will be determined by means of further review.In recent decades, the Arctic has transitioned to more mobile and thinner sea ice and more expansive stretches of open ocean. One outcome of these profound changes is the increasingly important role of Arctic Cyclones (ACs) in the loss of sea ice, which can occur at an astonishing rate of 1/2 million km2 within a 3-day period, an area that is bigger than California and approximately the size of Spain. An accurate prediction of such sea ice losses and the interplay between Arctic cyclones, sea ice and the open ocean is becoming increasing important for public safety, commerce, and national security. Unfortunately, the accurate prediction of ACs and sea ice loss is often a challenge, even on weather time-scales. This award supports continued planning for the THINICE to address this challenge. The sampling plan will include a 6-week international, multi-agency field campaign for July and August 2021 with a complementary numerical modeling and analysis component. This Scientific Project Overview (SPO) project is to organize the first systematic observational investigation to enhance our understanding of the critical mechanisms that determine the location, strength, evolution, and characteristics of TPVs, ACs and their potential for influencing sea ice break-up and decline. THINICE will directly contribute to NSF's goal of 'Navigating the New Arctic', which is one of the agencies ten bold ideas for future investment at the frontiers of science and engineering. THINICE will also contribute to NSF INCLUDES (Inclusion across the Nation of Communities of Learners of Underrepresented Discoverers in Engineering and Science) through educational and outreach activities that utilize NSF's Research Experience for Undergraduates program to involve indigenous students, including through novel social media efforts. Fundamental differences exist between the dynamics of cyclones in middle latitude and the Arctic. ACs have received attention for their impact on the Arctic sea ice. In particular, Tropopause Polar Vortices (TPVs) serve as an important precursor to the formation of ACs with cyclogenesis taking place when these vortices interact with low-level baroclinic zones. Another difference between weather systems in the Arctic and middle latitudes is the increased importance at higher latitudes of radiative processes relative to latent heating. Thus, the treatment of cloud and radiative processes is likely critical to accurately defining the structure and intensity of TPVs and ACs. While major field campaigns have been launched to study cyclones in middle latitudes, detailed observational studies of TPVs and ACs have not yet been undertaken. The THINICE SPO will coordinate efforts with plans to utilize in-situ and remote sensing measurements taken from the NSF-NCAR GV research aircraft to advance our knowledge of: (1) The dynamical and physical processes that control the intensity, structure, and evolution of ACs and TPVs; (2) The dynamical interactions between TPVs and ACs, including the role of TPVs in cyclogenesis and how ACs are modified when multiple TPVs are interactive; and (3) The coupling of TPVs and ACs with the underlying sea surface and sea ice during the summer, and how such coupling can lead to rapid sea ice loss and feedbacks that might, in turn, modify TPVs and ACs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项旨在支持 THINICE 的持续规划。 NSF 不承诺资助实地项目、相关分析和数值模拟工作。这些资助决定将通过进一步审查来决定。 近几十年来，北极已经转变为流动性更强、海冰更薄、公海面积更广阔的地区。这些深刻变化的结果之一是北极气旋 (AC) 在海冰消失中发挥着越来越重要的作用，海冰消失的速度可能在 3 天内以 1/2 百万平方公里的惊人速度消失，这一面积比加利福尼亚州还大，大约相当于西班牙的面积。准确预测此类海冰损失以及北极气旋、海冰和公海之间的相互作用对于公共安全、商业和国家安全变得越来越重要。不幸的是，即使在天气时间尺度上，准确预测空调和海冰损失通常也是一个挑战。该奖项支持 THINICE 继续规划应对这一挑战。抽样计划将包括 2021 年 7 月和 8 月为期 6 周的国际多机构实地活动，并提供补充性的数值建模和分析部分。该科学项目概述（SPO）项目旨在组织首次系统观测调查，以增强我们对决定 TPV、AC 的位置、强度、演化和特征及其影响海冰破裂和减少的潜力的关键机制的理解。 THINICE 将直接为 NSF 的“航行新北极”目标做出贡献，该目标是该机构未来在科学和工程前沿投资的十大大胆想法之一。 THINICE 还将通过利用 NSF 本科生研究经验计划让土著学生参与的教育和外展活动（包括通过新颖的社交媒体努力）为 NSF INCLUDES（工程和科学领域代表性不足的发现者学习者社区的包容性）做出贡献。中纬度地区和北极地区的气旋动力学存在根本差异。 AC 因其对北极海冰的影响而受到关注。特别是，对流层顶极涡（TPV）是 AC 形成的重要前体，当这些涡旋与低层斜压区相互作用时，就会发生气旋。北极和中纬度地区天气系统之间的另一个区别是，高纬度地区的辐射过程相对于潜热加热更为重要。因此，云和辐射过程的处理对于准确定义 TPV 和 AC 的结构和强度可能至关重要。虽然已经开展了主要的实地活动来研究中纬度地区的气旋，但尚未对 TPV 和 AC 进行详细的观测研究。 THINICE SPO 将与利用 NSF-NCAR GV 研究飞机进行的现场和遥感测量的计划进行协调，以增进我们对以下方面的了解： (1) 控制 AC 和 TPV 的强度、结构和演化的动力学和物理过程； （2）TPVs和ACs之间的动态相互作用，包括TPVs在循环发生中的作用以及当多个TPVs相互作用时ACs如何被修改； (3) 夏季期间 TPV 和 AC 与底层海面和海冰的耦合，以及这种耦合如何导致海冰快速消失和反馈，从而可能反过来改变 TPV 和 AC。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Characteristics of long-track tropopause polar vortices

• DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-251-2022
• 发表时间: 2022-03-10
• 期刊: WEATHER AND CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 作者: Bray, Matthew T.;Cavallo, Steven M.
• 通讯作者: Cavallo, Steven M.