The Creeping Disaster along the Coast: Built Environment, Coastal Communities and Population Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

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This project explores the vulnerability of humans and the built environment to the impacts of sea level rise by integrating detailed spatial housing data provided by Zillow with measures of social vulnerability, sea level rise risk, and historical flooding. This integrated dataset allows the theoretical exploration of the role of the built environment in mediating traditional human-natural system interactions within the context of slow moving, persistent or creeping disasters. Based on data from coastal communities impacted by recent hurricanes, innovative statistical techniques are used to understand the drivers of vulnerability and potential impacts of natural disasters on community resilience. The open, freely available vulnerability datasets created in this project will be foundational for future disaster preparation, planning, and post-disaster recovery. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare. In this case, the benefits will be insights to improve coastal disaster preparedness, which will save lives and economic losses in future events.This project advances the methodological foundation of vulnerability analysis to better characterize populations and built environments across coastal communities. These advances are driven by several data innovations. Using structure-specific characteristics derived from Zillow data, novel settlement data layers will be created at fine granularity and for different points in time to derive built-environment vulnerability indices. The settlement layers will be integrated with census population data through statistical mapping techniques to create spatially refined population distributions and ultimately compute revised measures of social vulnerability at fine granularity within sea-level rise zones. The revised social and built-up environment vulnerability layers will be combined over large areas and across several points in time to assess trends in integrated measures of vulnerability. Identifying different scenarios related to the exposure and potential impacts of sea-level rise on vulnerable places will provide insight on how coastal communities adapt to flood events and determine how particular development patterns may affect vulnerability in the future. Publications, software, and data derivatives generated during this project will be made available on the project website, GitHub and public data repositories.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.