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Collaborative research: RoL: The reaction norm as the basis for predicting population responses to environmental change at regional scales

合作研究：RoL：反应范数作为预测区域尺度人口对环境变化反应的基础

基本信息

批准号：
1927009
负责人：
Jesse Lasky
金额：
$ 43.29万
依托单位：
Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-01-01 至 2024-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1927009&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative research RoL reaction norm

项目摘要

Rapid environmental changes, such as rising temperatures and nitrogen pollution, can have dramatic impacts on plant and animal species important to society. Endangered species may be driven extinct, damaging invasive species might increase in distribution and abundance, and changes in the production of timber or forage species can alter rural economies. To help natural resource managers make good decisions, biologists predict the effect of environmental change on important species using population models. However, these predictions are rarely tested against observations. As a result, the ability of population models to make accurate forecasts for large regions is unknown. The goal of this project is to build a state-of-the-art population model and rigorously test its predictions against independent observations. The results will establish a benchmark for the current predictive ability of population models, while also identifying the kind of information required to make good predictions. For example, is it possible to make a skillful forecast without understanding genetic differences between individuals from different locations or accounting for interactions between the study species and its competitors? Graduate students and postdoctoral scientists will be invited to workshops for training in advanced statistical and population modeling techniques. To educate the public about the impacts of invasive species and environmental change, interactive exhibits will be installed at three museums and botanical gardens.The proposed research focuses on the reaction norm, a quantitative description of how an organism's performance depends on the environment. Success will require new advances to determine the relative importance of processes operating at gene, individual, and community levels in shaping reaction norms and regional population dynamics. The investigators will integrate DNA sequencing, common environment experiments, a regional network of distributed experiments across abiotic gradients, and new statistical techniques to answer the following questions: 1) What processes influencing reaction norms must we understand to predict impacts of environmental change on regional-scale population dynamics? 2) What is the magnitude of intraspecific variation in reaction norms, and to what extent does it reflect local adaptation vs. other processes? 3) How do phenology and physiology interact to determine demographic responses to weather? 4) How do abiotic conditions and competitive environment combine to influence demographic rates? The focal species is the invasive grass Bromus tectorum, which has degraded millions of acres of sagebrush steppe across the western US. Predictions about future changes in B. tectorum abundance across the region, and resulting changes in fire regimes, will help decision-makers prioritize future investments in conservation and restoration.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

快速的环境变化，如气温上升和氮污染，会对对社会重要的动植物物种产生巨大影响。濒危物种可能会灭绝，破坏性入侵物种的分布和数量可能会增加，木材或饲料生产的变化可能会改变农村经济。为了帮助自然资源管理者做出正确的决策，生物学家利用种群模型预测环境变化对重要物种的影响。然而，这些预测很少与观测结果相对照。因此，人口模型对大区域进行准确预测的能力是未知的。该项目的目标是建立一个最先进的人口模型，并根据独立的观察结果严格检验其预测。研究结果将为目前人口模型的预测能力建立一个基准，同时也将确定做出准确预测所需的信息类型。例如，如果不了解来自不同地区的个体之间的遗传差异，或者不考虑研究物种与其竞争对手之间的相互作用，是否有可能做出熟练的预测？研究生和博士后科学家将被邀请参加高级统计和人口建模技术培训讲习班。为教育市民了解外来物种入侵的影响及环境变化，三个博物馆及植物园将设有互动展览。拟议的研究侧重于反应规范，这是对生物体的表现如何取决于环境的定量描述。成功将需要新的进展，以确定在形成反应规范和区域人口动态方面，在基因、个人和社区层面上运作的过程的相对重要性。研究人员将结合DNA测序、普通环境实验、跨非生物梯度的区域分布式实验网络和新的统计技术来回答以下问题：1)我们必须了解影响反应规范的过程，以预测环境变化对区域尺度种群动态的影响？2)反应规范的种内变异的幅度是多少？与其他过程相比，它在多大程度上反映了局部适应？物候学和生理学如何相互作用以决定人口对天气的反应？4)非生物条件和竞争环境如何共同影响人口比率？焦点物种是入侵的山雀草，它已经使美国西部数百万英亩的山艾草草原退化。对整个地区白桦丰度未来变化的预测，以及由此导致的火灾制度变化，将有助于决策者优先考虑未来在保护和恢复方面的投资。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。