Collaborative research: RoL: The reaction norm as the basis for predicting population responses to environmental change at regional scales

迅速的环境变化，如气温上升和氮污染，可能会对对社会重要的动植物物种产生重大影响。濒危物种可能会灭绝，破坏性的入侵物种可能会增加分布和丰度，木材或饲料物种生产的变化可能会改变农村经济。为了帮助自然资源管理者做出正确的决策，生物学家使用种群模型预测环境变化对重要物种的影响。然而，这些预测很少与观测结果相对照。因此，人口模型对大区域做出准确预测的能力是未知的。这个项目的目标是建立一个最先进的人口模型，并根据独立的观测结果严格测试其预测。这些结果将为当前人口模型的预测能力建立一个基准，同时还将确定做出良好预测所需的信息类型。例如，在不了解来自不同地点的个体之间的遗传差异或考虑研究物种与其竞争对手之间的相互作用的情况下，是否有可能做出熟练的预测？将邀请研究生和博士后科学家参加讲习班，培训高级统计和人口建模技术。为了教育公众有关入侵物种和环境变化的影响，将在三个博物馆和植物园安装互动展品。拟议的研究重点是反应规范，即生物的表现如何依赖环境的定量描述。成功将需要新的进展，以确定在基因、个人和社区层面运作的过程在塑造反应规范和区域人口动态方面的相对重要性。研究人员将结合DNA测序、公共环境实验、跨非生物梯度的分布式实验的区域网络和新的统计技术来回答以下问题：1)我们必须了解哪些影响反应规范的过程才能预测环境变化对区域尺度种群动态的影响？2)反应规范的种内差异有多大，它在多大程度上反映了局部适应与其他过程？3)物候和生理如何相互作用来确定人口对天气的反应？4)非生物条件和竞争环境如何结合来影响人口速率？重点物种是入侵的草地雀麦，它已经使美国西部数百万英亩的山艾树草原退化。对该地区B.tectorum丰度未来变化的预测，以及由此导致的火灾制度的变化，将有助于决策者优先考虑未来在保护和恢复方面的投资。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Rapid environmental changes, such as rising temperatures and nitrogen pollution, can have dramatic impacts on plant and animal species important to society. Endangered species may be driven extinct, damaging invasive species might increase in distribution and abundance, and changes in the production of timber or forage species can alter rural economies. To help natural resource managers make good decisions, biologists predict the effect of environmental change on important species using population models. However, these predictions are rarely tested against observations. As a result, the ability of population models to make accurate forecasts for large regions is unknown. The goal of this project is to build a state-of-the-art population model and rigorously test its predictions against independent observations. The results will establish a benchmark for the current predictive ability of population models, while also identifying the kind of information required to make good predictions. For example, is it possible to make a skillful forecast without understanding genetic differences between individuals from different locations or accounting for interactions between the study species and its competitors? Graduate students and postdoctoral scientists will be invited to workshops for training in advanced statistical and population modeling techniques. To educate the public about the impacts of invasive species and environmental change, interactive exhibits will be installed at three museums and botanical gardens.The proposed research focuses on the reaction norm, a quantitative description of how an organism's performance depends on the environment. Success will require new advances to determine the relative importance of processes operating at gene, individual, and community levels in shaping reaction norms and regional population dynamics. The investigators will integrate DNA sequencing, common environment experiments, a regional network of distributed experiments across abiotic gradients, and new statistical techniques to answer the following questions: 1) What processes influencing reaction norms must we understand to predict impacts of environmental change on regional-scale population dynamics? 2) What is the magnitude of intraspecific variation in reaction norms, and to what extent does it reflect local adaptation vs. other processes? 3) How do phenology and physiology interact to determine demographic responses to weather? 4) How do abiotic conditions and competitive environment combine to influence demographic rates? The focal species is the invasive grass Bromus tectorum, which has degraded millions of acres of sagebrush steppe across the western US. Predictions about future changes in B. tectorum abundance across the region, and resulting changes in fire regimes, will help decision-makers prioritize future investments in conservation and restoration.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.