NNA Track 1: Collaborative Research: Resilience and adaptation to the effects of permafrost degradation induced coastal erosion

NNA 轨道 1：合作研究：对永久冻土退化引起的海岸侵蚀影响的恢复和适应

• 批准号: 1927713
• 负责人: Lilian Alessa
• 金额: $ 44.94万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Idaho
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1927713&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NNA; Track; Collaborative; Research; Resilience

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. Temperatures in the Arctic are rising rapidly, and these warmer temperatures have caused permafrost, ground that remains frozen for at least two consecutive years, to warm and thaw. Permafrost coasts, which make up approximately 30% of the world's coastlines, are experiencing accelerated erosion due to thawing. Erosion at some locations has occurred at the rate of 16 m per year since 2007. Degradation of permafrost and related coastal erosion damages coastal infrastructure and facilities across the Arctic, impacting the economic prosperity and lives of its inhabitants. As critical infrastructure becomes vulnerable to permafrost degradation and erosion, residents are forced to abandon homes and entire communities must be relocated. This diverts resources from other critical needs and disrupts social networks and subsistence practices. This research addresses society's capacity to adapt by analyzing interactions among the natural environment, social systems, and the built environment, in a part of the Arctic where coastal erosion due to permafrost degradation is taking place. This project co-produces knowledge with Arctic indigenous communities and will share research outcomes to inform decision-making with local communities and the general public. The project promotes NSF's initiative of Inclusion across the Nation of Communities of Learners of Underrepresented Discoverers in Engineering and Science (INCLUDES) by involving local indigenous high school students in the collection of field data, providing workshops in local communities demonstrating how science and engineering can improve community well-being, and provides students and early-career researchers with training and capacity-building opportunities in convergent research. The goal of this project is to understand the complex relationship between permafrost degradation and related coastal erosion, civil infrastructure, and community well-being, including social and cultural resilience. Results can be used to formulate a holistic and predictive model that aids adaptation of social systems and the built environment to the unprecedented environmental changes in the region. The project consists of five research tasks with related research products: (1) development of a thermal model with high spatial resolution (130 m) to evaluate and predict the rate, extent, and mechanisms of permafrost degradation in the next century and a maximum entropy principle model to estimate the future rate of coastal and river bluff erosion and thermokarst development; (2) creation of an infrastructure hazards map of the region experiencing the effects of permafrost degradation and coastal erosion; (3) co-production of knowledge with Arctic indigenous communities to identify and understand the most urgent issues relating to permafrost degradation and coastal erosion and flooding, as well as collecting and integrating local long-term observations of these phenomena by local observers; (4) development of a quantitative assessment model of sociodemographic resilience of communities to permafrost degradation, demonstrating the impacts of infrastructure disruptions on the social resilience and adaptation capacity of coastal communities; and (5) development of an agent-based model (ABM) that can be used to adapt civil infrastructure and build the social resilience of communities to future permafrost degradation and coastal erosion. The project works with communities along the coastal region of Alaska North Slope Borough (NSB) to develop and validate models, although results will be of value to many coastal communities experiencing permafrost-induced coastal erosion.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

NSF的10个大创意之一是导航新北极（NNA）。 NNA项目应对北极快速变化的融合科学挑战。需要进行北极研究，以告知国家，较大地区和全球的经济，安全和弹性。 NNA赋予从本地量表到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了知识的共同生产。该奖项实现了该目标的一部分。北极的温度正在迅速升高，这些较高的温度导致了永久冻土，地面至少连续两年冻结，以温暖和解冻。占世界海岸线约30％的永久冻土海岸正由于解冻而遭受加速侵蚀。自2007年以来，某些位置的侵蚀以每年16 m的速度发生。多年冻土和相关沿海侵蚀的降解损害了北极的沿海基础设施和设施，从而影响了其居民的经济繁荣和生活。随着关键基础设施容易受到永久冻土降解和侵蚀的影响，居民被迫放弃房屋，必须重新安置整个社区。 这将资源从其他关键需求中转移出来，并破坏社交网络和生存实践。这项研究涉及社会通过分析自然环境，社会系统和建筑环境之间的相互作用的能力，在北极的一部分中，由于多年冻土降解引起的沿海侵蚀。该项目与北极土著社区共同培育知识，并将分享研究成果，以与当地社区和公众为决策提供信息。该项目促进了NSF在整个社区中纳入工程和科学领域的学习者（包括）的倡议。该项目的目的是了解多年冻土降解与相关沿海侵蚀，民用基础设施以及社区福祉（包括社会和文化弹性）之间的复杂关系。结果可用于制定一个整体和预测的模型，该模型有助于社会系统适应该地区前所未有的环境变化。该项目由五项具有相关研究产品的研究任务组成：（1）开发具有高空间分辨率（130 m）的热模型，以评估和预测下一世纪永久冻土降级的速率，程度和机制，以及最大的熵原理模型，以估算沿海和河流蓝河的未来速率和河流bluff bluff ersosion和Thermokarst的发展； （2）创建基础设施危害图图，经历了多年冻土降解和沿海侵蚀的影响； （3）与北极土著社区共同生产知识，以识别和理解与多年冻土降解和沿海侵蚀和洪水有关的最紧迫的问题，并收集和整合当地观察者对这些现象的当地长期观察； （4）开发社区对多年冻土降解的社会人口统计学弹性的定量评估模型，证明了基础设施中断对沿海社区社会韧性和适应能力的影响； （5）开发基于代理的模型（ABM），该模型可用于适应民用基础设施，并建立社区的社会弹性，以实现未来的永久冻土降解和沿海侵蚀。该项目与阿拉斯加北部Slope Borough（NSB）沿海地区的社区合作，以开发和验证模型，尽管结果对许多经历了永久冻土引起的沿海侵蚀的沿海社区具有价值。该奖项反映了NSF的法规任务，并且认为通过基金会的知识优点和广泛的范围来评估，并且值得通过评估来进行评估，并获得了广泛的影响。

项目成果

Surprise and Suspense: How the Intelligence Community Forgot the Future

惊喜与悬念：情报界如何忘记未来

• DOI: 10.1080/23800992.2021.2006954
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: and Public Affairs
• 作者: Alessa, Lilian;Moon, Sean K;Valentine, James;Marks, Michael;Hepburn, Don;Kliskey, Andrew
• 通讯作者: Kliskey, Andrew

Asymmetric competition in the Arctic: Implications for North American defense and security

北极的不对称竞争：对北美国防和安全的影响

• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: The Air Force journal of IndoPacific affairs
• 作者: Alessa, L.