NNA Track 1: Predicting coastal responses to a changing Greenland ice sheet

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。这个奖项部分实现了这一目标。随着世界各地的冰融化，预计许多地方的海平面会上升，而另一些地方则会下降。由于格陵兰岛非常靠近不断变化的冰层，预计陆地将会上升，海平面将会下降，这将影响人类、海洋生物和自然资源。社区对海平面变化的反应取决于对当前沿海环境的准确、特定地点的知识，以及如何预测其变化。考虑到北极地区的经济、采矿、自然资源和基础设施开发，迫切需要更好地了解和交流该岛周围现在和未来的海平面。这个美国-格陵兰联合调查小组已经确定了四个具有不同基础设施的关键当地社区，这些社区可能会经历不同的未来沿海环境。通过关注这四个群落，研究人员可以开发出更好的陆地和海平面变化模型，并绘制浅水环境图，以确定哪些栖息地和沿海运输路线可能发生变化。这些关于海平面变化的新预测和海底栖息地的测绘结合起来，可以提高当地社区应对变化的能力。这种综合方法可作为制定社区应对北极和全球冰变化战略的模板。整个北极地区的海平面变化是固体地球隆起或下沉、海洋环流以及由冰川和冰盖变化驱动的重力场变化的综合响应。由于邻近冰盖，格陵兰浅水变化的信号可能很大，正如美国国家科学基金会支持的格陵兰GPS网络（GNET）所显示的那样，该网络记录了西南地区高达23毫米/年的抬升率和5毫米/年的下沉率。该项目的目标是汇集一个研究团队，专注于四个不同的北极社区的自然、社会和建筑环境的整合，这些社区靠近不断变化的冰盖。这一重点允许：(i)利用最先进的技术绘制浅水环境和生境图；（ii）就过去、现在和未来海平面如何对冰的变化作出反应，开发有数据依据的模式和预估；（iii）与当地社区合作，收集所需的数据，以改进海平面模型和基线水深测绘，以确定未来变化的热点，在这些热点中，新的基础设施、渔业和其他海洋利用可能容易发生变化。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.As ice melts around the world, sea level is projected to rise in many places and fall in others. Because Greenland is very close to the changing ice, it is anticipated that the land will rise, and that sea level will fall, impacting both humans, marine life, and natural resources. Community responses to changing sea level depend on accurate, location-specific knowledge of the present-day coastal environment and how it is predicted to change. Given the economic, mining, natural resources, and infrastructure development occurring in the Arctic, there is an urgent need to better understand and communicate the present and future sea level around the island. This joint US-Greenlandic investigator team has identified four key local communities with different infrastructure that are likely to experience differential future coastal environments. By focusing on these four communities, the investigators can develop better models of changes to both land and sea level changes and can map the shallow water environments to determine which habitats and coastal transportation routes may change. Together these new predictions of sea level change and mapping of seafloor habitats can improve the capacity of local communities to respond to change. This integrated approach serves as a template for developing a strategy for communities to respond to the changing ice in the Arctic and around the globe. Sea level changes throughout the Arctic are the combined response of solid Earth uplift or subsidence, oceanic circulation, and gravity field variations driven by changes in glaciers and ice sheets. Due to the adjacent ice sheet, the signals of shallow water change in Greenland may be large, as shown by the NSF-supported Greenland GPS Network (GNET), which has documented uplift rates up to 23 mm/year and subsidence rates of 5 mm/year in the southwest. The goal of this project is to bring together a convergence research team focusing on the integration of the natural, social, and built environments of four different Arctic communities proximal to a changing ice sheet. This focus permits the: (i) use state of the art technologies to map shallow water environment and habitats; (ii) development of data-informed models and projections of how sea level has responded to changing ice in the past, present and future; and (iii) partnering with local communities in both needed data collection to improve the sea level models and the baseline bathymetric mapping to identify hot spots for future change where new infrastructure, fisheries, and other marine use may be susceptible to change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.