NNA Track 1: Predicting coastal responses to a changing Greenland ice sheet

航行新北极(NNA)是NSF的十大想法之一。NNA项目解决了快速变化的北极地区汇聚的科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大区域和全球的经济、安全和韧性提供信息。NNA增强了新的研究伙伴关系，从地方到国际范围，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了共同生产的知识。这个奖项实现了这一目标的一部分。随着世界各地的冰川融化，预计许多地方的海平面会上升，另一些地方的海平面会下降。由于格陵兰岛距离变化的冰层非常近，预计陆地将上升，海平面将下降，对人类、海洋生物和自然资源都会造成影响。社区对海平面变化的反应取决于对当今沿海环境的准确和具体位置的了解，以及预测它将如何变化。鉴于北极正在进行的经济、采矿、自然资源和基础设施建设，迫切需要更好地了解和沟通该岛周围目前和未来的海平面。这个美国-格陵兰联合调查小组已经确定了四个具有不同基础设施的关键当地社区，它们可能会经历不同的未来沿海环境。通过将重点放在这四个群落上，研究人员可以开发出更好的陆地和海平面变化模型，并可以绘制浅水环境图，以确定哪些栖息地和沿海运输路线可能发生变化。这些对海平面变化的新预测和海底栖息地的测绘结合在一起，可以提高当地社区应对变化的能力。这一综合办法可作为制定社区应对北极和全球冰川变化战略的模板。整个北极的海平面变化是固体地球隆起或下沉、海洋环流以及冰川和冰盖变化驱动的重力场变化的综合反应。由于邻近的冰盖，格陵兰浅水变化的信号可能很大，如美国国家科学基金会支持的格陵兰GPS网络(GNET)所显示的那样，该网络记录了格陵兰西南部的抬升速率高达23毫米/年，下沉速率为5毫米/年。该项目的目标是汇聚一个研究团队，专注于整合变化中的冰盖附近四个不同北极社区的自然、社会和建筑环境。这一重点允许：(I)使用最先进的技术来绘制浅水环境和栖息地的地图；(Ii)开发海平面如何对过去、现在和未来的冰变化做出反应的数据模型和预测；以及(Iii)在所需的数据收集方面与当地社区合作，以改进海平面模型和基线水深测绘，以确定未来新的基础设施、渔业和其他海洋用途可能发生变化的热点。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.As ice melts around the world, sea level is projected to rise in many places and fall in others. Because Greenland is very close to the changing ice, it is anticipated that the land will rise, and that sea level will fall, impacting both humans, marine life, and natural resources. Community responses to changing sea level depend on accurate, location-specific knowledge of the present-day coastal environment and how it is predicted to change. Given the economic, mining, natural resources, and infrastructure development occurring in the Arctic, there is an urgent need to better understand and communicate the present and future sea level around the island. This joint US-Greenlandic investigator team has identified four key local communities with different infrastructure that are likely to experience differential future coastal environments. By focusing on these four communities, the investigators can develop better models of changes to both land and sea level changes and can map the shallow water environments to determine which habitats and coastal transportation routes may change. Together these new predictions of sea level change and mapping of seafloor habitats can improve the capacity of local communities to respond to change. This integrated approach serves as a template for developing a strategy for communities to respond to the changing ice in the Arctic and around the globe. Sea level changes throughout the Arctic are the combined response of solid Earth uplift or subsidence, oceanic circulation, and gravity field variations driven by changes in glaciers and ice sheets. Due to the adjacent ice sheet, the signals of shallow water change in Greenland may be large, as shown by the NSF-supported Greenland GPS Network (GNET), which has documented uplift rates up to 23 mm/year and subsidence rates of 5 mm/year in the southwest. The goal of this project is to bring together a convergence research team focusing on the integration of the natural, social, and built environments of four different Arctic communities proximal to a changing ice sheet. This focus permits the: (i) use state of the art technologies to map shallow water environment and habitats; (ii) development of data-informed models and projections of how sea level has responded to changing ice in the past, present and future; and (iii) partnering with local communities in both needed data collection to improve the sea level models and the baseline bathymetric mapping to identify hot spots for future change where new infrastructure, fisheries, and other marine use may be susceptible to change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.