NNA Track 1: Predicting coastal responses to a changing Greenland ice sheet

新北极航行（NNA）是NSF的十大创意之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的趋同科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和地球仪的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA授权从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合知识的共同生产。这个奖项实现了这个目标的一部分。随着世界各地的冰融化，海平面预计将在许多地方上升，在其他地方下降。 由于格陵兰岛非常接近变化的冰层，预计陆地将上升，海平面将下降，从而影响人类、海洋生物和自然资源。社区对不断变化的海平面的反应取决于对当前沿海环境及其变化预测的准确、具体地点的了解。考虑到北极地区的经济、采矿、自然资源和基础设施发展，迫切需要更好地了解和沟通该岛周围目前和未来的海平面。这个美国-格陵兰联合调查小组已经确定了四个关键的当地社区，这些社区的基础设施不同，未来可能会经历不同的沿海环境。通过关注这四个社区，研究人员可以开发出更好的陆地和海平面变化模型，并可以绘制浅水环境图，以确定哪些栖息地和沿海运输路线可能会发生变化。这些关于海平面变化的新预测和海底生境测绘结合在一起，可以提高当地社区应对变化的能力。 这一综合办法可作为一个模板，用于制定一项战略，使各社区能够应对北极和地球仪周围不断变化的冰层。整个北极的海平面变化是固体地球隆起或沉降、海洋环流以及冰川和冰盖变化驱动的重力场变化的综合反应。 由于邻近的冰盖，格陵兰岛浅水变化的信号可能很大，如NSF支持的格陵兰GPS网络（GNET）所示，该网络记录了高达23毫米/年的上升速率和西南部5毫米/年的下沉速率。该项目的目标是汇集一个融合研究团队，专注于接近不断变化的冰盖的四个不同北极社区的自然，社会和人造环境的整合。这一重点允许：㈠利用最先进的技术绘制浅水环境和生境的地图; ㈡开发有数据依据的模型，并预测海平面在过去、现在和未来如何对冰的变化作出反应;和（iii）与当地社区合作，收集必要的数据，以改进海平面模型，并绘制基线测深图，以确定未来变化的热点，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim.As ice melts around the world, sea level is projected to rise in many places and fall in others. Because Greenland is very close to the changing ice, it is anticipated that the land will rise, and that sea level will fall, impacting both humans, marine life, and natural resources. Community responses to changing sea level depend on accurate, location-specific knowledge of the present-day coastal environment and how it is predicted to change. Given the economic, mining, natural resources, and infrastructure development occurring in the Arctic, there is an urgent need to better understand and communicate the present and future sea level around the island. This joint US-Greenlandic investigator team has identified four key local communities with different infrastructure that are likely to experience differential future coastal environments. By focusing on these four communities, the investigators can develop better models of changes to both land and sea level changes and can map the shallow water environments to determine which habitats and coastal transportation routes may change. Together these new predictions of sea level change and mapping of seafloor habitats can improve the capacity of local communities to respond to change. This integrated approach serves as a template for developing a strategy for communities to respond to the changing ice in the Arctic and around the globe. Sea level changes throughout the Arctic are the combined response of solid Earth uplift or subsidence, oceanic circulation, and gravity field variations driven by changes in glaciers and ice sheets. Due to the adjacent ice sheet, the signals of shallow water change in Greenland may be large, as shown by the NSF-supported Greenland GPS Network (GNET), which has documented uplift rates up to 23 mm/year and subsidence rates of 5 mm/year in the southwest. The goal of this project is to bring together a convergence research team focusing on the integration of the natural, social, and built environments of four different Arctic communities proximal to a changing ice sheet. This focus permits the: (i) use state of the art technologies to map shallow water environment and habitats; (ii) development of data-informed models and projections of how sea level has responded to changing ice in the past, present and future; and (iii) partnering with local communities in both needed data collection to improve the sea level models and the baseline bathymetric mapping to identify hot spots for future change where new infrastructure, fisheries, and other marine use may be susceptible to change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.