Early Detection of Solar Flares Using High Sensitivity Extreme-UltraViolet (EUV) Data

如《国家空间气象战略和行动计划》所述，及时探测太阳耀斑对于空间气象预报工作至关重要，而空间气象预报工作对国家安全、经济、基础设施服务、遥感、空间探索、导航和定时服务至关重要。 由于所使用的方法和仪器的限制，目前的耀斑探测方法在发出警报时有一个内置的至少4分钟的延迟。 然而，已经开发了一种使用高灵敏度卫星数据的新的耀斑探测方法，大大缩短了耀斑探测时间。 这种新的数据和工具可以及时采取预防措施，以保护社会和国家利益。 此外，它还具有极大的潜力，有助于目前对太阳耀斑引发过程的了解-这是一个备受争议的科学问题，目前，太阳耀斑预报方法主要依靠X射线辐照度数据，没有任何视觉图像。 这一为期三年的项目的主要目标是利用GOES/太阳紫外线成像仪提供的新的、高灵敏度、实时、低延迟数据，以便不仅确定耀斑发生的时间，而且确定其位置-这一特性可能影响相应空间气象影响的程度。 此外，新工具能够在有害的空间气象影响发生之前发出十多分钟的预警。 我们获得的高灵敏度极紫外数据非常适合使用本项目期间使用的新颖，强大和快速的耀斑探测工具来识别耀斑发展的早期迹象。 通过分析耀斑的发展过程，该算法还可以深入了解早期紫外特征与耀斑强度的关系。 它还提供了一个全新的洞察耀斑的更深层次的物理和能量释放的方式，等离子体是在高能太阳爆发的演变加热。 研究不同波长的耀斑的时间发展，使我们能够更好地了解耀斑是如何开始的，哪些不同的物理环境和过程导致耀斑区域的不稳定性，以及它与严重空间天气扰动的程度有何关系。 该项目的研究和EPO议程支持AGS部门在发现、学习、多样性和跨学科研究方面的战略目标。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The timely detection of solar flares is of primary importance to space weather forecasting efforts that are critical to national security, the economy, infrastructure services, remote sensing, space exploration, navigation, and timing services -- as stated in the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan. Current flare detection methods have a built-in minimum 4-minute delay in their alert issuance due to the limitations of the methods and instruments used. However, a new flare detection method using high-sensitivity satellite data has been developed that improves flare detection time significantly. This new data and tool allows preventative measures to take place in a timely manner to protect societal and national interests. Furthermore, it has a significant potential to contribute to the current understanding of solar flare initiation processes -- a highly debated scientific subject.Currently, solar flare forecasting methods primarily rely on X-ray irradiance data without any visual imagery. The main goal of this three-year project is to take advantage of the new, high-sensitivity, real-time, low-latency data available from the GOES/Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) instrument in order to identify not only the time of the flare occurrence, but its location as well -- a property that can influence the magnitude of the corresponding space weather effects. Furthermore, the new tool is capable of giving over ten minutes of advance warning before detrimental space weather effects occur. The high-sensitivity extreme ultraviolet data available to us is uniquely suitable to identify early signs of a flare development using the novel, robust and fast flare detection tool to be utilized during this project. By analyzing the flare development process the algorithm could also gain insight into how early ultraviolet signatures are related to flare magnitudes. It also provides a brand new insight into the deeper physics of flares and the ways in which energy is released and plasma is heated during the evolution of energetic solar eruptions. Studying the temporal development of flares in different wavelengths allows us to better understand how the initiation happens and what different physical environments and processes lead to instabilities in flaring regions and how it relates to the magnitude of severe space weather disturbances. The research and EPO agenda of this project supports the Strategic Goals of the AGS Division in discovery, learning, diversity, and interdisciplinary research.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.