CoPe Conference: International Symposium on Interdisciplinary Evacuation Modeling for Rapid Onset Disasters: Corvallis, OR - Summer 2020

本次海岸线与人(COPE)会议将汇集来自美国、加勒比、波多黎各、日本、印度尼西亚、智利、新西兰、澳大利亚、欧洲(洪灾研究人员)、加拿大和中国等国家/地区的海啸和山洪灾害研究人员。国际研究人员和美国参与者来自社会科学、工程学、地球科学、城市规划、公共政策/公共管理、计算科学和数学等多个学科。本次会议将讨论如何将不同形式的社会科学数据(即调查、访谈、演习、实地观察、手机或GPS)整合到基于主体的跨学科疏散模型中的基本问题。这些定性或定量数据往往以零散和非结构化的形式存在，这是阻碍制定人们从迫在眉睫的海啸中撤离的综合模型的障碍。工程师和计算机科学家将经验行为数据整合到数学疏散模型中的程序还处于开发的初级阶段。工程师和计算机科学家认识到在他们的模型中包括行为参数的重要性，但通常会通过做出毫无根据的假设来过度简化这些参数，这些假设会显著降低研究产品对政策制定者的价值。相反，社会科学家通常无法收集关于人们实际和预期行为的数据，这些数据满足了工程师和计算机科学家的所有数据需求。这些长期困扰海啸研究的跨学科整合问题，已经开始被飓风研究人员克服。因此，本次会议将借鉴飓风疏散模型方面的经验，认识到预警参数的重大差异，如预警的数量--飓风为数天，但某些海啸只有几分钟。因此，与会者将设法确定海啸疏散建模的关键数据需求(例如，警报传播时间、家庭准备时间、疏散模式选择、到安全的距离)。他们还将审查家庭和社区为海啸疏散做好准备的影响，这在每个国家和每个国家内从一个社区到另一个社区是不同的。与会者将通过确定尚未在国际英文期刊上发表的行为数据集和数学模型来克服目前研究的碎片化，建立海啸后行为数据收集的协议，并建立国际跨学科研究人员的合作网络。会议还将积极吸引沿海应急管理人员和政府政策制定者，他们可以分享他们的社区复原力挑战，并寻求与研究人员合作的机会。同时，本次会议将创造机会，通过海报/论文竞赛和沿海危险识字教育机会，积极吸引本科生、研究生和K-12学生参与。本次COPE会议的目标是实现真正整合和融合的跨学科疏散模型，将自然、社会和工程系统整合在一起，以应对近场海啸和沿海山洪暴发等快速发生的灾害。本次会议将汇集来自世界各地许多学科和国家的高度多样化的学术研究人员、教育工作者和机构专业人员，以确定知识差距、挑战、障碍和机会，为快速发生的沿海灾害(如近场海啸和沿海山洪暴发)提供综合、跨学科和变革性的疏散建模方法。为期三天的研讨会将由公认的领导人发表主题演讲和会议，重点讨论将社会科学数据整合到跨学科疏散模型中的不同主题：(1)应邀研究人员建立的最新跨学科快速启动灾难疏散模型，每个研究人员被邀请为编辑卷贡献一篇观点或案例研究论文；(2)将社会科学数据整合到跨学科疏散模型中；(3)跨学科疏散模型的验证；(4)海啸预警传播机制和通信渠道；(5)基于社区的试验床和基准数据集；(6)将保护行动决策理论与基于多学科主体的疏散模型相结合。预期成果是：(1)编辑后的卷，以记录已查明的知识差距和未来研究方向的路线图；(2)将在主要灾害相关期刊上发表一期期刊特刊，重点介绍基于主体的模型在灾害脆弱性、减灾规划、疏散建模和规划中的使用。会议组织者计划在位于俄勒冈州立大学纽波特沿海校区的哈特菲尔德海洋科学中心的全新海洋科学大楼举行研讨会。研究生将有机会向世界知名的研究人员展示他们的研究成果。同时，他们将负责开发海报会议和本科生研究竞赛。虽然这次会议将聚焦于海啸和闪食等快速发生的沿海灾难，但从这次会议中确定的知识差距、关键挑战、未来方向和新出现的机会，以实现跨学科的疏散模型，将转移到其他类型的快速发生的灾难，如野火、大坝坍塌、堤坝决口洪水、山体滑坡和危险材料泄漏。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Coastlines and People (CoPe) conference will bring together tsunami and flash flood researchers from countries/regions such as the United States of America, Caribbean, Puerto Rico, Japan, Indonesia, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Europe (flood researchers), Canada, and China. The international researchers, together with US participants, are drawn from a wide range of disciplines including social science, engineering, geoscience, urban planning, public policy/public administration, computational science, and mathematics. This conference will address fundamental issues on how to integrate diverse forms of social science data (i.e., survey, interviews, drills, field observations, cell phone or GPS) into interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation models. These qualitative or quantitative data exist often in fragmented and unstructured formats, an obstacle that impedes the development of a comprehensive model of people's evacuation from imminent tsunamis. The procedures for integrating empirical behavior data into mathematical evacuation models by engineers and computer scientists are only at the beginning stages of development. Engineers and computer scientists recognize the importance of including behavioral parameters in their models but typically oversimplify them by making unfounded assumptions that significantly diminish the value of the research products for policy makers. Conversely, social scientists have generally failed to collect data on people's actual and intended behavior that meet all of the engineers' and computer scientists' data needs. These problems of interdisciplinary integration, which have long plagued tsunami research, have begun to be overcome by hurricane researchers. Thus, this conference will draw upon the experience in hurricane evacuation modeling, recognizing the substantial differences parameters such as the amount of forewarning - many days for hurricanes but only a few minutes for some tsunamis. Consequently, the conference participants will seek to identify critical data needs for tsunami evacuation modeling (e.g., warning dissemination times, household preparation times, evacuation mode choice, distance to safety). They will also examine the effects of household and community preparedness for tsunami evacuation, which varies between countries and from one community to another within each country. The conference participants will overcome the current research fragmentation by identifying behavioral datasets and mathematical models that have not been published in international English-language journals, establish protocols for post-tsunami behavioral data collection, and establish a collaborative network of international interdisciplinary researchers. The conference will also actively engage coastal emergency managers and governmental policy makers, who can share their community resilience challenges and seek opportunities to collaborate with researchers. At same time, this conference will create opportunities to actively engage undergraduate, graduate and K-12 students through a poster/paper competition, and coastal hazard literacy education opportunities. The goal of this CoPe conference is to enable truly integrative and convergent interdisciplinary evacuation models integrating natural, social, and engineered systems for rapid onset disasters such as near-field tsunami and coastal flash flooding. This conference will bring together a highly-diverse group of academic researchers, educators, and agency professionals from many disciplines and countries around the world to identify knowledge gaps, challenges, barriers, and opportunities for integrated, interdisciplinary, and transformative evacuation modeling approaches for rapid onset coastal disasters such as near-field tsunami and coastal flash floods. The three-day symposium will feature keynote speeches by recognized leaders and sessions focusing on different themes on the integration of social science data into interdisciplinary evacuation models: (1) Current state-of-art interdisciplinary rapid onset disaster evacuation modeling from invited researchers, with each researcher being invited to contribute a perspective or case study paper to an edited volume; (2) Integration of social science data into interdisciplinary evacuation models; (3) Validation of interdisciplinary evacuation models; (4) Tsunami warning dissemination mechanism and communication channels; (5) Community-based testbeds and benchmark dataset; and (6) Integration of protective-action decision-making theory to interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation models. The expected outcomes are (1) an edited volume to document the identified knowledge gaps and a road map of future research directions; and (2) a journal special issue focusing on the use of agent-based models in hazard vulnerability, mitigation planning, evacuation modeling and planning to be published in a premier disaster related journal. The conference organizers plan to hold the workshop at the brand-new Marine Science Building at the Hatfield Marine Science Center located on Oregon State University's coastal campus in Newport, Oregon. Graduate students will have opportunities to present their research before world-renowned researchers. Simultaneously, they will be responsible for developing poster sessions and undergraduate student research competitions. Although this conference will focus on rapid-onset coastal disasters such as tsunami and flash foods, the knowledge gaps, key challenges, future directions, and emerging opportunities identified to enable interdisciplinary evacuation models from this conference will be transferable to other types of rapid-onset disasters such as wildfires, dam failures, levee breach floods, landslides, and hazardous materials releases.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.