An Integrated Social Science and Agent-based Modeling Approach to Improve Life Safety from Near-field Tsunami Hazards

该项目将培养对社会科学和基于主体的建模方法如何在近场海啸灾害威胁下提高生命安全的基本理解。目标危险情景是来自卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的9.0级地震和海啸，威胁到美国太平洋西北海岸线1000英里沿线的社区。该项目与应对极端自然灾害期间负责公共安全的一些组织开展密切合作，包括俄勒冈运输部、俄勒冈应急管理办公室、俄勒冈公园和娱乐以及俄勒冈海洋赠款。来自不同群体的社会科学数据将为疏散决策提供越来越多的知识体系。与俄勒冈工业科学博物馆（OMSI）的合作将利用博物馆正在进行的活动，包括那些未被充分代表的群体。建模源代码将被共享和分发。该项目将社会学与工程学相结合，调查多种形式的海啸信息及其对公众和负责沿海游客安全的独特专业团体做出疏散决策的潜在影响。项目目标是：(1)识别影响多模式疏散决策行为的认知和社会因素；(2)利用基于agent的建模框架为近场海啸灾害提供真实可信的假设情景；(3)确定基于社会科学的智能体模型的可用性/可接受性，以理解疏散决策。因此，这项工作将增进对决策如何影响生命安全的理解，并与不同的受众广泛接触，以评估这种方法的可行性，并为推广的目的。

This project will develop fundamental understanding of how integrated social science and agent-based modeling approaches can improve life safety under threat of near-field tsunami hazards. The targeted hazard scenario is a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, threatening communities along 1,000 miles of the US Pacific Northwest coastline. This project develops close collaboration with a number of organizations responsible for public safety during the response extreme natural hazards, including the Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Office of Emergency Management, Oregon Parks and Recreation, and Oregon Sea Grant. Social science data from diverse groups will contribute to a growing body of knowledge on evacuation decision-making. A collaboration with the Oregon Museum of Science of Industry (OMSI) will leverage the museum's ongoing activities, including those which reach underrepresented groups. Modeling source code will be shared and distributed.The project integrates the disciplines of sociology with engineering to investigate multiple forms of tsunami information and its potential impact on evacuation decision-making by the general public and the unique professional community responsible for coastal visitor safety. The project objectives are (1) to identify the cognitive and social factors that influence multimodal evacuation decision-making behavior; (2) to utilize an Agent-Based Modeling framework to provide realistic/credible hypothetical scenarios for near-field tsunamis hazards; and (3) to determine the usability/acceptability of social science-informed agent-based modeling for understanding evacuation decision-making. This work will therefore improve understand of how decision-making affects life safety, with broad outreach to diverse audiences both to assess the feasibility of this approach and for purposes of outreach.