An Integrated Social Science and Agent-based Modeling Approach to Improve Life Safety from Near-field Tsunami Hazards

该项目将促进对综合社会科学和基于代理人的建模方法如何在近场海啸危险威胁下改善生命安全的基本理解。目标危险情景是来自卡斯卡迪亚俯冲区的9.0级地震和海啸，威胁到美国太平洋西北海岸线1000英里的社区。该项目与许多在应对极端自然灾害期间负责公共安全的组织密切合作，包括俄勒冈州交通部、俄勒冈州应急管理办公室、俄勒冈州公园和娱乐机构以及俄勒冈州海洋赠款。来自不同群体的社会科学数据将有助于增加有关疏散决策的知识。与俄勒冈州工业科学博物馆(OMSI)的合作将利用博物馆正在进行的活动，包括那些接触到代表不足的群体的活动。模型源代码将被共享和分发。该项目将社会学和工程学的学科结合起来，调查多种形式的海啸信息及其对公众和负责沿海游客安全的独特专业社区疏散决策的潜在影响。该项目的目标是(1)确定影响多模式疏散决策行为的认知和社会因素；(2)利用基于代理的建模框架，为近场海啸危险提供现实/可信的假设情景；以及(3)确定基于社会科学的基于代理的建模的可用性/可接受性，以了解疏散决策。因此，这项工作将提高对决策如何影响生命安全的理解，广泛接触不同的受众，以评估这一方法的可行性和推广的目的。

This project will develop fundamental understanding of how integrated social science and agent-based modeling approaches can improve life safety under threat of near-field tsunami hazards. The targeted hazard scenario is a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, threatening communities along 1,000 miles of the US Pacific Northwest coastline. This project develops close collaboration with a number of organizations responsible for public safety during the response extreme natural hazards, including the Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Office of Emergency Management, Oregon Parks and Recreation, and Oregon Sea Grant. Social science data from diverse groups will contribute to a growing body of knowledge on evacuation decision-making. A collaboration with the Oregon Museum of Science of Industry (OMSI) will leverage the museum's ongoing activities, including those which reach underrepresented groups. Modeling source code will be shared and distributed.The project integrates the disciplines of sociology with engineering to investigate multiple forms of tsunami information and its potential impact on evacuation decision-making by the general public and the unique professional community responsible for coastal visitor safety. The project objectives are (1) to identify the cognitive and social factors that influence multimodal evacuation decision-making behavior; (2) to utilize an Agent-Based Modeling framework to provide realistic/credible hypothetical scenarios for near-field tsunamis hazards; and (3) to determine the usability/acceptability of social science-informed agent-based modeling for understanding evacuation decision-making. This work will therefore improve understand of how decision-making affects life safety, with broad outreach to diverse audiences both to assess the feasibility of this approach and for purposes of outreach.