Collaborative Research: Understanding Evacuation Behavior for Rapid Onset Disasters such as Flash Floods and Tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

合作研究：了解卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带山洪和海啸等快速发生的灾害的疏散行为

• 批准号: 1826407
• 负责人: Haizhong Wang
• 金额: $ 32.59万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-15 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1826407&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Understanding; Evacuation; Behavior

This project advances the fundamental understanding of household responses to rapid onset disasters such as flash floods and near-field tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Specifically, this project will address two often-neglected fundamental issues in evacuation research. First, although there has been extensive research on evacuation rates and the factors that affect household evacuation decisions, there has been little research on evacuation logistics. In particular, recent research on evacuations from rapid onset disasters has revealed that few studies have addressed the timing of warning diffusion and household mobilization, let alone the predictors of these variables. This poses a significant impediment to transportation researchers who require accurate estimates of the time dependent rates at which evacuees enter the evacuation route system because time is critical to the likelihood of surviving tsunami waves or inland flooding. Second, there has been little research on evacuees' transportation mode choices (vehicular vs. pedestrian) from mountainous coasts where both modes are feasible. Transportation mode choice is closely related to households' choice of evacuation routes and destinations. These issues are addressed by conducting a behavioral expectations survey of a representative sample of residents in three communities on the Oregon coast. The behavioral expectations survey is supplemented by surveys of people who participate in tsunami evacuation drills. Data from these sources are integrated into an agent-based evacuation model. This project will develop a tsunami interactive multi-touch exhibit to transform hazard literacy education at the Hatfield Marine Science Center Cyber-Learning Laboratory. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare with benefits by identifying critical needs for household and community evacuation planning in advance of rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods.This project integrates the multiple disciplines of social science, hazard science, and engineering through an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework to investigate household's response to rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods. The research objective is to systematically compare experiential evacuation drills to prior research on people's responses to the earthquakes and tsunami threat in Christchurch, Tohoku, and American Samoa, complemented by data from a tsunami evacuation expectations survey on the Oregon coast. These data will underpin a validated interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework that advances the theoretical understanding and practical utilization of scientific findings regarding household response to imminent threats. Specifically, this project will achieve the following four objectives: (1) conduct systematic comparisons of experiential drills to actual events to uncover ways they differ; (2) identify and validate the critical decision-making factors that facilitate or inhibit the implementation of protective actions; (3) characterize the behavioral outcomes of tsunami vertical evacuation and unplanned infrastructure disruptions; and (4) establish an experiential cyberlearning platform to enhance tsunami literacy education. The results from this project will provide disaster planners and managers with a strong evidence-based framework to create effective evacuation strategies and evacuation route system mitigation plans. This project will also underpin improved understanding by STEM students, policy makers and planners, agency/industry professionals, and the general public, of tsunamis and measures that can lead to improved life safety and community resilience.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目促进了对卡斯卡迪亚俯冲区迅速发生的灾害，如山洪暴发和近场海啸的家庭反应的基本了解。具体地说，该项目将解决疏散研究中经常被忽视的两个基本问题。首先，虽然对疏散率和影响家庭疏散决策的因素进行了广泛的研究，但对疏散物流的研究很少。特别是，最近关于迅速发生的灾害的疏散的研究表明，很少有研究涉及警报传播和家庭动员的时机，更不用说这些变量的预测因素了。这对交通研究人员构成了重大障碍，他们要求准确估计疏散人员进入疏散路线系统的依赖时间的比率，因为时间对于海啸或内陆洪水幸存下来的可能性至关重要。其次，在山区海岸，疏散人员的交通方式选择(车辆和行人)都是可行的，但很少有研究。交通方式的选择与居民对疏散路线和疏散目的地的选择密切相关。这些问题通过对俄勒冈州海岸三个社区的具有代表性的居民样本进行行为预期调查来解决。行为预期调查是对参加海啸疏散演习的人进行的调查的补充。来自这些来源的数据被集成到基于代理的疏散模型中。该项目将开发一个海啸互动多点触控展览，以改变哈特菲尔德海洋科学中心网络学习实验室的灾害知识教育。因此，这一科研贡献支持了NSF的使命，即通过在海啸和山洪暴发等快速发生的灾害之前确定家庭和社区疏散规划的关键需求，促进科学进步和增进我们的国家福利。该项目通过基于跨学科代理的建模框架整合了社会科学、危险科学和工程学的多个学科，以调查家庭对海啸和山洪暴发等快速发生的灾害的反应。这项研究的目标是系统地比较经验疏散演习和先前关于克赖斯特彻奇、东北和美属萨摩亚人们对地震和海啸威胁的反应的研究，并辅之以俄勒冈海岸海啸疏散预期调查的数据。这些数据将支持一个经过验证的跨学科、基于代理人的建模框架，促进对家庭对迫在眉睫的威胁的反应的科学发现的理论理解和实际应用。具体地说，该项目将实现以下四个目标：(1)对体验式演习与实际事件进行系统的比较，以找出它们的不同之处；(2)确定并验证促进或抑制实施保护行动的关键决策因素；(3)描述海啸垂直疏散和基础设施意外中断的行为结果；以及(4)建立体验式网络学习平台，以加强海啸扫盲教育。该项目的结果将为灾害规划者和管理人员提供强有力的循证框架，以制定有效的疏散战略和疏散路线系统缓解计划。该项目还将加强STEM学生、政策制定者和规划者、机构/行业专业人员和普通公众对海啸和可提高生命安全和社区复原力的措施的理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

An interdisciplinary agent-based multimodal wildfire evacuation model: Critical decisions and life safety

基于跨学科代理的多模式野火疏散模型：关键决策和生命安全

• DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2021.103147
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
• 作者: Siam, M.R.K.;Wang, Haizhong;Lindell, Michael K.;Chen, Chen;Vlahogianni, Eleni I.;Axhausen, Kay
• 通讯作者: Axhausen, Kay

An agent-based vertical evacuation model for a near-field tsunami: Choice behavior, logical shelter locations, and life safety

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.12.018
• 发表时间: 2019-03-01
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Mostafizi, Alireza;Wang, Haizhong;Dong, Shangjia
• 通讯作者: Dong, Shangjia

Evacuation behavior of affected individuals and households in response to the 2018 Attica wildfires: From empirical data to models

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105799
• 发表时间: 2022-05-06
• 期刊: SAFETY SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 6.1
• 作者: Katzilieris, Konstantinos;Vlahogianni, Eleni I.;Wang, Haizhong
• 通讯作者: Wang, Haizhong

Evolutionary game analysis of decision-making dynamics of local governments and residents during wildfires

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101991
• 发表时间: 2021-02-01
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Shi, Wenqiang;Wang, Haizhong;Kong, Zhaojun
• 通讯作者: Kong, Zhaojun

An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience

• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-02-21
• 期刊: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Chen, Chen;Koll, Charles;Lindell, Michael K.
• 通讯作者: Lindell, Michael K.