Collaborative Research: Understanding Evacuation Behavior for Rapid Onset Disasters such as Flash Floods and Tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone

该项目提高了对Cascadia俯冲带的暴洪和近场海啸等快速灾害的家庭反应的基本认识。具体而言，本项目将解决疏散研究中经常被忽视的两个基本问题。首先，尽管人们对疏散率和影响家庭疏散决策的因素进行了广泛的研究，但对疏散物流的研究却很少。特别是，最近关于快速灾害疏散的研究表明，很少有研究涉及警报扩散和家庭动员的时间，更不用说这些变量的预测因素了。这对交通研究人员来说是一个很大的障碍，因为他们需要准确估计撤离人员进入疏散路线系统的时间依赖率，因为时间对海啸波或内陆洪水幸存的可能性至关重要。其次，在两种交通方式都可行的山区沿海地区，对疏散人员的交通方式选择（车辆还是行人）的研究很少。交通方式的选择与住户对疏散路线和目的地的选择密切相关。通过对俄勒冈州海岸三个社区的有代表性的居民样本进行行为期望调查，解决了这些问题。行为预期调查还包括对参加海啸疏散演习的人的调查。来自这些来源的数据被整合到一个基于代理的疏散模型中。该项目将开发一个海啸互动多点触摸展览，以改变哈特菲尔德海洋科学中心网络学习实验室的危害素养教育。因此，这项科学研究贡献支持了NSF的使命，即通过确定家庭和社区疏散计划的关键需求，在海啸和山洪等快速发生的灾害发生之前，促进科学进步，提高我们的国家福利。该项目通过基于主体的跨学科建模框架，整合了社会科学、灾害科学和工程学的多个学科，以调查家庭对海啸和山洪等速发灾害的反应。研究的目的是系统地比较经验疏散演习与之前在克赖斯特彻奇、东北和美属萨摩亚进行的关于人们对地震和海啸威胁的反应的研究，并辅以俄勒冈州海岸海啸疏散预期调查的数据。这些数据将支撑一个有效的基于主体的跨学科建模框架，促进关于家庭应对迫在眉睫的威胁的科学发现的理论理解和实际应用。具体而言，本项目将实现以下四个目标：(1)将经验演练与实际事件进行系统比较，揭示它们的不同之处；(2)识别和验证促进或抑制保护措施实施的关键决策因素；(3)描述海啸垂直疏散和计划外基础设施破坏的行为结果；(4)建立体验式网络学习平台，加强海啸扫盲教育。该项目的成果将为灾害规划人员和管理人员提供强有力的基于证据的框架，以制定有效的疏散战略和疏散路线系统减灾计划。该项目还将加强STEM学生、政策制定者和规划者、机构/行业专业人员以及公众对海啸和可以改善生命安全和社区复原力的措施的理解。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project advances the fundamental understanding of household responses to rapid onset disasters such as flash floods and near-field tsunamis in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Specifically, this project will address two often-neglected fundamental issues in evacuation research. First, although there has been extensive research on evacuation rates and the factors that affect household evacuation decisions, there has been little research on evacuation logistics. In particular, recent research on evacuations from rapid onset disasters has revealed that few studies have addressed the timing of warning diffusion and household mobilization, let alone the predictors of these variables. This poses a significant impediment to transportation researchers who require accurate estimates of the time dependent rates at which evacuees enter the evacuation route system because time is critical to the likelihood of surviving tsunami waves or inland flooding. Second, there has been little research on evacuees' transportation mode choices (vehicular vs. pedestrian) from mountainous coasts where both modes are feasible. Transportation mode choice is closely related to households' choice of evacuation routes and destinations. These issues are addressed by conducting a behavioral expectations survey of a representative sample of residents in three communities on the Oregon coast. The behavioral expectations survey is supplemented by surveys of people who participate in tsunami evacuation drills. Data from these sources are integrated into an agent-based evacuation model. This project will develop a tsunami interactive multi-touch exhibit to transform hazard literacy education at the Hatfield Marine Science Center Cyber-Learning Laboratory. This scientific research contribution thus supports NSF's mission to promote the progress of science and to advance our national welfare with benefits by identifying critical needs for household and community evacuation planning in advance of rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods.This project integrates the multiple disciplines of social science, hazard science, and engineering through an interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework to investigate household's response to rapid onset disasters such as tsunamis and flash floods. The research objective is to systematically compare experiential evacuation drills to prior research on people's responses to the earthquakes and tsunami threat in Christchurch, Tohoku, and American Samoa, complemented by data from a tsunami evacuation expectations survey on the Oregon coast. These data will underpin a validated interdisciplinary agent-based modeling framework that advances the theoretical understanding and practical utilization of scientific findings regarding household response to imminent threats. Specifically, this project will achieve the following four objectives: (1) conduct systematic comparisons of experiential drills to actual events to uncover ways they differ; (2) identify and validate the critical decision-making factors that facilitate or inhibit the implementation of protective actions; (3) characterize the behavioral outcomes of tsunami vertical evacuation and unplanned infrastructure disruptions; and (4) establish an experiential cyberlearning platform to enhance tsunami literacy education. The results from this project will provide disaster planners and managers with a strong evidence-based framework to create effective evacuation strategies and evacuation route system mitigation plans. This project will also underpin improved understanding by STEM students, policy makers and planners, agency/industry professionals, and the general public, of tsunamis and measures that can lead to improved life safety and community resilience.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.