CAREER: Study of Redundant Deliberation in High-Stakes, High-Uncertainty Decision Making Using the Least-Worst Uncertainty Choice Inventory for Emergency Responses

职业：使用紧急响应的最差不确定性选择清单研究高风险、高不确定性决策中的冗余审议

• 批准号: 1945108
• 负责人: Neil Shortland
• 金额: $ 41.12万
• 依托单位: University of Massachusetts Lowell
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-03-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1945108&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Study; Redundant; Deliberation; Stakes

Recent research in the field of decision-making has identified that, when faced with high-risk, high-uncertainty decisions, individuals can suffer from redundant deliberation and fail to commit to the right (or wrong) action in the required amount of time. Redundant deliberation is a unique psychological process within decision-making under uncertainty, that has received less theoretical attention because it pertains to the absence, or delay, or a decision being made. To date a wealth or naturalistic research (i.e., research in the field) has observed the presence of redundant deliberation in emergency service responses, and real-life cases of decision-making under pressure have shown the presence, and indeed damage, of redundant deliberation (e.g., Grenfell Fire, intervention in the Syrian civil war). Despite this, no scientific research has been able to explore the psychological process that underpins the causes of, and individual differences in redundant deliberation. The overall goal of the proposed research is to develop a new measure of decision-making in high-stakes, high-uncertainty situations that is designed for members of the emergency services and police force in order to develop scientific theory on the underlying psychological process of redundant deliberation. The main feature of this proposal is the validation and implementation of a newly designed research methodology; the Least-Worst Uncertain Choice Inventory for Emergency Responses. To date, this Inventory has been piloted on over 350 practitioners including members of the United States Armed Forces, members of the United Kingdom Police Force, senior members of the Singapore Crises Response team, and even members of the High Value Detainee Interrogation group. The results of these studies have shown that the Inventory can be used to explore the effect of individual differences (such as need for closure, self-reported maximization, goal orientation) on decision-making tendencies and redundant deliberation; that it can be used to model the neurological processes of redundant deliberation and that it can even be used to test emerging theories of redundant deliberation (e.g., the “theory of colliding sacred values”). Thus, by furthering our understanding of the psychological process of redundant deliberation through the continued and expanded use of the Least-Worst Uncertain Choice Inventory for Emergency Responses, this CAREER grant can have a significant positive impact on the ability of people to respond to time-critical situations and avoid delaying important actions.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

决策领域的最新研究表明，当面临高风险、高不确定性的决策时，个人可能会陷入多余的思考，无法在规定的时间内做出正确（或错误）的行动。冗余审议是不确定条件下决策过程中的一种独特的心理过程，由于它与决策的缺席、延迟或正在做出的决策有关，因此很少受到理论上的关注。要确定财富或自然主义研究的日期（即，该领域的研究）已经观察到在紧急服务响应中存在冗余的考虑，并且在压力下进行决策的真实案例已经显示了冗余考虑的存在以及实际上的损害（例如，格伦费尔大火（英语：Grenfell Fire），叙利亚内战的干预。 尽管如此，还没有科学研究能够探索支撑冗余审议的原因和个体差异的心理过程。拟议研究的总体目标是开发一种新的决策措施，在高风险，高不确定性的情况下，是专为紧急服务和警察部队的成员，以发展科学理论的基本心理过程的冗余审议。这项建议的主要特点是验证和实施一个新设计的研究方法，最小最坏的不确定性选择库存的紧急反应。迄今为止，这一清单已在350多名从业人员中试用，其中包括美国武装部队成员、联合王国警察部队成员、新加坡危机应对小组的高级成员，甚至还有高价值被拘留者审讯小组的成员。这些研究的结果表明，该清单可用于探索个体差异（如需要关闭，自我报告的最大化，目标取向）对决策倾向和冗余审议的影响;它可用于模拟冗余审议的神经过程，甚至可用于测试冗余审议的新兴理论（例如，“神圣价值观冲突论”）。因此，通过继续和扩大使用应急反应的最小-最差不确定选择清单，进一步理解多余审议的心理过程，这种职业补助金可以对人们对时间的反应能力产生重大的积极影响-该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的学术价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

‘Let's be careful out there’: Maximization and core values predict action time in police decision making

“让我们小心一点”：最大化和核心价值观预测警察决策中的行动时间

• DOI: 10.1016/j.paid.2023.112398
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Personality and Individual Differences
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Tejeiro, Ricardo;Alison, Laurence;González, Jose Luis;Shortland, Neil
• 通讯作者: Shortland, Neil

Imagining grim stories to reduce redundant deliberation in critical incident decision-making

• DOI: 10.1080/09540962.2021.1969085
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: Public Money & Management
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Laurence Alison;N. Shortland;M. Palasinski;M. Humann